Best Justin Herbert Player Props for Texans vs. Chargers in Week 17

• Justin Herbert threw for 300 yards in last week’s win against Dallas

• The Los Angeles Chargers have secured a spot in the playoffs

• The Houston Texans defense ranks top-2 in Def DVOA and in EPA

After a slow start to the year, the Los Angeles Chargers have started to look like a Super Bowl contender as they have won their last four games in a row while securing a spot in the playoffs. Unfortunately for Justin Herbert, negative regression looms large in a AFC conference matchup against the Houston Texans as he faces off against a defense who ranks near the top of the board in most defensive metrics.

Best Justin Herbert Player Props for Texans vs. Chargers

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Justin Herbert Under 218.5 Passing Yards (-115) at BetMGM Sportsbook

Even though the Los Angeles Chargers offense have underwhelmed as a whole, Justin Herbert has been able to thrive as he currently ranks above league average in Adjusted EPA per Play. His ability to take care of the ball and avoid throwing into high Havoc situations has helped the Chargers remain competitive in their contests as Herbert also resides in the top-10 in Turnover Worthy Play Percentage.

Heading into Saturday’s contest against Houston, expect Herbert to fall hard back down to reality as he faces off against a Texans defensive line who ranks top-2 in Def DVOA, EPA, and in Pass Rush PFF Grade. For some more exposure, escalator bet Herbert’s passing yardage prop by placing smaller wagers on his alternate unders at the best available odds across multiple sportsbooks.

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Justin Herbert Under 20.5 Pass Completions (-135) at BetMGM Sportsbook

With the Texans defensive line forcing Herbert to throw on the run at a higher rate, the quality of his throws will harshly decline which lowers his chances of generating a completion. Especially with the Texans pressure giving Herbert’s pass catchers less time in the open field to break away from their coverage as this will drastically narrow the width of his passing lanes.

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Justin Herbert Longest Completion Under 35.5 Yards (-125) at BetMGM Sportsbook

Correlating this prop with the previously mentioned one, the Texans low use of the blitz will also make it easier for them to create disruptions as they will have a defender near the point of contact for the full duration of the contest. Their extra bodies in coverage will also reduce the Chargers pass catchers ability to create Yards After the Catch which further lessens Herbert’s chances of generating an explosive play.

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Justin Herbert Over 4.5 Rush Attempts (-145) at BetMGM Sportsbook

Not only has Herbert been able to pick apart opposing secondaries on a weekly basis, but he has also been aggressive in his efforts of extending plays with his legs as he is currently averaging 30.7 Rushing Yards per game. His dual threat ability was on full display in last week’s matchup against Dallas as he finished the contest rushing for 42.0 Yards while averaging over 5.0 Yards per Carry.

Even though the Texans excel at stopping the run as their top-5 mark in Run Defense Line Yards indicates, Herbert’s uptick in scrambles will lead to a higher volume of Rush Attempts. With the Chargers expected to have a lead late in the fourth quarter as the current spread implies, Herbert will also have the opportunity to kneel it out which will count as a Carry to help clear the over on his Rush Attempts prop.

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Justin Herbert 2025-2026 Stats

• Passing Yards: 3,491

• Passing Touchdowns: 25

• Completion Percentage: 66.5%

• Total Interceptions: 12

• Average Yards per Throw: 7.3

• Passing Yards per Game: 232.7

• Rushing Yards: 461

• Rushing Touchdowns: 2

• Average Yards per Carry: 6.0

• Rushing Yards per Game: 30.7