Kansas City Chiefs vs. New England Patriots: Odds, Prediction and Preview (NFL Week 6)

Mike Lukas - October 11, 2018

The Kansas City Chiefs are undefeated after five games and they don’t look very beatable at all. Under the leadership of second-year quarterback phenom Patrick Mahomes, the Chiefs have averaged 35 points per game with the fourth best offense that’s capable of putting up 413.0 yards from scrimmage per game.

The Chiefs come to Foxborough undefeated on the road (3-0), undefeated in their division (2-0) and conference (4-0), and there’s very little doubt in their mind that the Patriots are capable of changing any of that. Last season in Week 1, the Chiefs came to Gillette Stadium and beat the Pats 42-27, but it’s Week six now and the Patriots are all warmed-up, so it’ll be no easy feat for the Chiefs to come out of this one a winner.

New England Patriots’ 41-year-old quarterback Tom Brady has his football team right where he wants them. Their record is 3-2 and they’re coming off their second huge win in a row, but more importantly, they’re scoring and defending like the Patriots of old.

In other words, not over the hill but Super Bowl worthy.

Brady’s boys took down the undefeated Dolphins 38-7 in Week 4 and handled the Colts 38-24 in Week 5, and now they complete their three-game home stand against an undefeated Kansas City team with a hot young Mahomes willing and able to go back-and-forth with old man Brady.

Whether the Chiefs win or lose this matchup, they’ll still be first in the AFC West by at least a game. But if the Patriots come out on top, as they’re expected to, they’ll move to 4-2 and – depending on how the 3-2 Dolphins do against the first place 3-1 Bears – either stay alone or tie for first in the AFC East.

Who’s favored to win this Week 6 Chiefs-Patriots matchup?

Which team has a better offense? Defense? Special teams?

Which team’s quarterback is more likely to lead his team to victory?

We’re going to compare the Chiefs and the Patriots and attempt to answer those questions and more.

The 2018 Chiefs offense couldn’t be better

Mahomes’ passing game is all about wide receivers Tyreek Hill and Sammy Watkins, a one-two punch offset occasionally by throws to Second-team All-Pro tight end Travis Kelce and running back Kareem Hunt. Hunt, an All-Rookie last season, has already caught for 66 yards and a touchdown while also running the ball 93 times for 376 yards and 4 touchdowns.

Mahomes has thrown for a league leading 14 touchdowns for a passer rating of 112.7. His offensive line, including Second-team All-Pro right tackle Mitchell Schwartz, has only allowed him to be sacked 6 times while blocking for a running attack that averages 578 yards per game, tenth best in the NFL.

The 2018 Patriots offense firing on all cylinders

When the Patriots put up low scores in their back-to-back losses (20 against the Jaguars in Week 2, 10 against the Lions in Week 3), the football world panicked and predicted the downfall of the aged New England Empire.

But now that wide receiver Julian Edelman is back from his four-game suspension and late-addition receiver Josh Gordon has begun to learn Brady’s (and coordinator Josh McDaniels’) offense, Brady has some real passing threats besides tight end Rob Gronkowski to counter-balance the two-headed running attack of first-round draft pick Sony Michel and veteran James White.

The offensive line has allowed only 6 sacks (3rd in the league) and they’re 12th in total rushing yards (565). The Chiefs defense is tied for 6th in sacks with 15 but ranked 24th against the run, so this game should include a decent line-battle throughout.

Chiefs Defense ranks 32nd in the league, Patriots D ranks 16th

The Chiefs’ defense is technically the worst in the league, allowing opponents to gain 461.8 total yards per game. They allow opponents to score 25.8 points per game, and up until last week against the Jaguars, they only had 2 interceptions and 10 sacks.

Against Jacksonville, though, the defense looked solid – they kept Bortles scoreless through most of the third quarter, they intercepted him four times and sacked him five times. It was like the whole defensive squad got the message that Mahomes couldn’t carry the team all by himself.

Here’s a sign of confidence – a choreographed celebration after one of their picks:

New England’s defense has kept opponents to 21.6 points per game, and they’re going to need every player in the secondary to keep an eye on the speedy receiver Hill as he runs his deep routes. Cornerback Eric Rowe is still out with a groin injury, so it’s up to Stephon Gilmore and backup Jonathan Jones to shut down Mahome’s passing game that’s averaged almost 300 yards per game.

After an interception against the Colts last week, Patriots safety Patrick Chung’s Mortal Kombat celebration got a whole lot of internet attention:

Chung and fellow safety Devin McCourty will need to bring that kind of take-away energy and more against Mahomes, who’s only thrown two interceptions all season.

Special teams

Kansas City’s 14-year veteran punter, Dustin Colquitt, has been a Chief his whole career and so far, he’s punted 15 times for a net average of 45.1 yards per punt, ranked first in the league.

New England’s punter, Ryan Allen, has been a Patriot all six of his NFL years and has punted 21 times but for a net average of 40.1 yards per punt, ranked 16th in the NFL.

Kansas City’ placekicker, Harrison Butker, was an All-Rookie last season and so far he’s 7-for-7, his longest was a 46-yarder. He hasn’t missed an extra point attempt (22/22).

New England’s veteran placekicker, Stephen Gostkowski, who has spent all 13 of his NFL seasons as a Patriot, is 7-for-8, his longest was a 46-yarder. He hasn’t missed an extra point attempt (16/16).

Kansas City’s punt returner, wide receiver Tyreek Hill, is ranked 2nd in the league in return average. He’s returned 6 punts for 139 yards and no touchdowns, averaging 23.2 yards per return, his longest for 91 yards and a touchdown.

New England’s punt returner, wide receiver Julian Edelman, is ranked 19th in the league in return average. He’s returned 2 punts for 20 yards and a touchdown, averaging 10.0 yards per return, his longest was for 15 yards.

Chiefs-Patriots prediction and odds

The oddsmakers have the Patriots favored over the Chiefs by 3.5 with an over/under of 59.5.

CBSSports.com has two final score predictions:

Pete Prisco goes with the way under and has it Patriots 27, Chiefs 20

John Breech takes the way over and predicts it Patriots 41, Chiefs 38