Underdog Patriots Aiming to Continue Five-Year Super Bowl Upset Streak

The Seattle Seahawks are favored to beat the New England Patriots in Super Bowl LX, but recent matchups on the NFL’s biggest stage all swung in favor of the underdogs.

Five straight Super Bowl underdogs covered the spread, and four of them won outright. That puts the Patriots on the right side of history, despite only having an implied 34.5 percent chance of winning the game, according to Super Bowl odds.

What went right for recent dogs, and will the Patriots be able to continue the trend? Let's break it down.

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Super Bowl Betting Trends: Expect Upsets

The Patriots are 4.5-point underdogs despite going 17-3 across the regular season and playoffs. That’s a testament to the strength of the Seahawks, who are the sixth-best team ever charted, according to DVOA.

Last year, the Philadelphia Eagles completely dominated the Kansas City Chiefs despite entering as +1.5 underdogs. They were up 34-0 in the third quarter and basically didn’t try to move the football in the fourth quarter, eventually putting in their backups while the Chiefs made the score look closer than the game was (40-22).

The Eagles’ defense was outstanding that year, leading the league in points and yards allowed per game. They only surrendered 49 rushing yards in the Super Bowl and forced Patrick Mahomes to turn the ball over three times, putting them in the driver’s seat from the opening moments.

In 2024, the Chiefs found themselves as two-point underdogs against the San Francisco 49ers. Christian McCaffrey’s Offensive Player of the Year campaign propelled a high-powered Niners squad to a Super Bowl appearance, spurred by them rallying from a 24-7 deficit against the Detroit Lions in the NFC Championship Game. 

The Chiefs’ offense was far from its best that year, but Patrick Mahomes still wound up with 399 total yards, two touchdowns, and an interception when it mattered the most. He also led a game-tying drive at the end of regulation and the game-winning touchdown drive in overtime. 

Even More Super Bowl Upsets

The first Super Bowl matchup between the Eagles and the Chiefs came in 2023, when the Chiefs were one-point dogs against a young Philly team that had taken the league by storm. 

The Eagles recorded 70 sacks during the regular season, tying the third-highest mark in NFL history. They also ranked second in average points scored (29.1), just 0.1 behind the Chiefs.

Both teams threw constant haymakers in the fiery battle. Jalen Hurts finished with 374 total yards and four touchdowns, but Mahomes' Chiefs scooped up a fumble-six and eventually kicked a game-winning field goal with 0:08 remaining to secure the victory, 38-35.

The 2022 Super Bowl was the only one of the last five that ended with the favorite on top. Matthew Stafford and Sean McVay captured their first championships for the Los Angeles Rams, while Joe Burrow’s Bengals came up short but covered the 4.5-point line in a 23-20 loss.

Super Bowl LV saw the Chiefs in the Super Bowl for the second time in the Mahomes era against Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who were in front of their home fans as three-point underdogs.

Mahomes was spectacular that year, throwing for 4,740 yards, 38 touchdowns, and only six interceptions. However, he and the Chiefs quickly learned that they did not have an answer for the Buccaneers’ terrific pressure packages.

Despite only going 26/49 for 270 yards and two interceptions, Mahomes performed well as an individual. He and the Chiefs were still no match for the Bucs, who racked up 145 yards on the ground and got three touchdowns from Brady in the 31-9 blowout.

Will history repeat this year with the Patriots listed as 4.5-point underdogs at FanDuel Sportsbook? We'll know very soon.

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