Patriots vs. Broncos AFC Championship Prediction: Jarrett Stidham Will Start for Denver

• Bo Nix is done for the season with a foot injury

• The Patriots are playing their first road game of the playoffs

• New England is a 4.5-point road favorite 

This year’s AFC Championship looks a little different, as Denver will be without starting quarterback Bo Nix for the remainder of the season. The Broncos will need to regroup quickly and find a way to stay competitive against a well-rounded Patriots team.

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Drake Maye has posted MVP-level stats, and New England will need him to play at a high level against one of the best defenses in the NFL. There is a route to victory for the Broncos, but it won’t be easy with backup Jarrett Stidham under center.

Patriots vs. Broncos Odds

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Patriots vs. Broncos - My Pick

• Patriots vs Broncos Pick: Broncos +4.5 (-110) at Fanatics Sportsbook

The Denver Broncos boast one of the most disruptive defenses in the NFL, a unit that led the league in sacks and pressures throughout the 2025 season. They routinely get after quarterbacks and force mistakes. 

Denver has the potential to neutralize an elite quarterback like Drake Maye. Despite losing starter Bo Nix to a season-ending injury, Denver’s offense isn’t solely dependent on a single player. 

Their quick-tempo passing game and efficiency helps keep drives alive and controls the clock. Home field at Mile High further boosts Denver’s edge, with altitude and crowd noise often impacting opponent execution. 

Sean Payton’s experience and Jarrett Stidham’s familiarity with the system suggest the Broncos can manage the game script, limit turnovers, and keep it close enough to cover even if the Patriots seize an early lead.

Patriots vs. Broncos Prediction

Patriots Preview

Very few people expected the Patriots to make the AFC Championship. Under first-year head coach Mike Vrabel, New England has been one of the league’s most improved teams and they’re now one win away from the Super Bowl.

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At the center of New England’s resurgence is second-year quarterback Drake Maye, who delivered a breakout season with over 4,300 passing yards, 31 touchdowns, and only eight interceptions. He hasn’t been great in the past two weeks, and he will have a massive challenge against Denver. 

Yet, his efficiency and dual-threat ability will also be a challenge for Denver, so we should have a great chess match on Sunday. The Patriots’ offense also features rookie back TreVeyon Henderson and veteran receiver Stefon Diggs, who surpassed 1,000 receiving yards on the season. 

Defensively, New England has playmakers across the roster, with cornerback Christian Gonzalez anchoring the unit. Combined with Vrabel’s coaching and a balanced attack, the Patriots are tough and they should punch their ticket to the Super Bowl Sunday. 

Yet, they haven’t been tested too much this season and this could hurt them in this contest. Denver will be their toughest opponent of the season. 

Broncos Preview

The Denver Broncos finished the 2025 regular season with a 14–3 record, earning the AFC’s top seed and showcasing one of the league’s most complete teams. Their defense was elite, ranking among the NFL’s best, allowing just 18.3 points per game and leading the league with 68 sacks in the regular season. 

Nik Bonitto is the best pass rusher, leading the team with 14 sacks. He should make life tough for Drake Maye on Sunday. 

Offensively, Denver relied on balanced production from veterans and dynamic playmakers. Bo Nix led the team with 3,931 passing yards and 25 touchdowns, and Courtland Sutton topped the receiving corps with 1,017 yards and 7 touchdowns. 

On Sunday, Stidham will be throwing to Sutton. Stidham hasn’t played in a game for the past two seasons, but Sean Payton has boasted about the quarterback’s capability. Stidham has been in Payton’s system for years, so he should be ready to compete. 

Patriots vs. Broncos Injury Report

Patriots

• Garrett Bradbury - Questionable

• Harold Landry - Questionable

• Marte Mapu - Questionable

Team A

• Bo Nix - Out

• Troy Franklin - Questionable

• Alex Forsyth - Questionable

Patriots vs. Broncos: Best Promos and Sportsbooks

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How to Patriots vs. Broncos AFC Championship

• When: Sunday, January 25th at 3:00 PM EST

• Where: Mile High Stadium, Denver, CO

• How to Watch: CBS

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