NFL Week 12 Picks Against the Spread: Chiefs Save Their Season, Rams Super Bowl Favorites?

• The Seahawks are a league-best 8-2 against the spread

• The Saints, Bengals and Packers are only 3-7 ATS

• The Jags had the largest cover of Week 11 by a whopping 31.5 points against the Chargers

As the houses begin to smell like Thanksgiving turkey and warm apple cider, let’s take a venture into the best NFL Week 12 picks against the spread.

Last week was my worst week of the season and only my third week below .500, which means that it’s time for an equally-positive response. Road favorites are still printing money, covering 54.3 percent of spreads, while underdogs as a whole have been out of favor.

There are several high-profile matchups in the upcoming schedule, including the Indianapolis Colts against the Kansas City Chiefs in an AFC contender showdown, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers against the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday Night Football.

Let’s not wait any longer—here are my best bets against the spread for NFL Week 12.

• My 2025 NFL betting stats: 85-75-3 (53.1% ATS)

NFL Week 12 Picks ATS

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Bills vs. Texans - Nov. 20, 8:15 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Bills -6 (-110), Texans +6 (-110)

• Moneyline: Bills -275, Texans +225

• Total: Over/under 43.5 (-110/-110)

The Bills are a contender, but just how legitimate are they? Yes, Josh Allen had a six-touchdown performance in a 44-32 win over the Bucs last week, but they also got blown out by the Dolphins the week before. They allow the second-most yards per carry and lack talent at skill positions, aside from James Cook.

The Texans have a terrific pass defense, and their run-stoppers have improved to hold their opponents to the fourth-fewest yards per carry. The team won consecutive games, yet they weren’t convincing in last week’s win over the Titans. Davis Mills has a tall task ahead of him as he continues to fill in for C.J. Stroud, who will miss his third straight game with a concussion.

Houston’s defense will give fits to every offense in the NFL. Buffalo’s weakness defending the run should be exploitable, but then again, the Texans struggle to consistently run the football. I don’t believe that Mills is capable enough to battle with Allen, which is why I’d take the Bills in what will likely be a low-scoring affair.

Bills vs. Texans pick: Bills -6 (-110) at bet365

Colts vs. Chiefs - Nov. 23, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Colts +3.5 (-110), Chiefs -3.5 (-110)

• Moneyline: Colts +165, Chiefs -200

• Total: Over/under 49.5 (-110/-110)

The Colts enjoyed a bye week last week following their overseas win against the Atlanta Falcons. The combination of Daniel Jones and Jonathan Taylor in the backfield has been lethal, and Sauce Gardner’s insertion into the secondary gives them the defensive game-changer they lacked. Shane Steichen is a terrific coach, and they’ll be as prepared as they can be due to the extra time to rest and prepare.

Who would’ve guessed that Week 12 would be desperation time for the Chiefs? They lost back-to-back games and are floundering at 5-5, having shockingly lost their post-bye week game to the Broncos last Sunday. They’re good on offense and defense, but they don’t look capable of conjuring the winning-time moments that have defined their dynasty every time they need them.

This is one of the most intriguing matchups of the season up to this point. Indy’s offense has been a load, and their defense now has one of the best players in the sport, while the dynastic Chiefs could buy themselves a ticket out of the playoffs if they lose a third straight game on Sunday. This is firmly a reputation pick, but I just can’t imagine that the Chiefs will go out with a whimper when they’ve had answers at nearly every turn over the last seven years.

Colts vs. Chiefs pick: Chiefs -3.5 (-110) at bet365

Vikings vs. Packers - Nov. 23, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Vikings +6.5 (-115), Packers -6.5 (-105)

• Moneyline: Vikings +235, Packers -290

• Total: Over/under 41.5 (-110/-110)

With every passing week, J.J. McCarthy is proving to the NFL world that he is not the quarterback of the future in Minnesota. That’s a tough conclusion for a first-year starter, but it’s the unfortunate reality for a Minnesota offense that is terrifically coached, yet seems to be growing increasingly frustrated. Brian Flores’ defense is doing all that it can, yet this team has lost four of its last five contests.

Speaking of underwhelming NFC North teams, how about the “Super Bowl contender” Packers? They lost two straight games and then failed to cover against the battered and bruised, Jameis Winston-led Giants last week, during which they were held under 300 yards of total offense. The advanced metrics love this team, yet they often seem second gear whenever the game is watched with human eyes and not a calculator (coming from an analytics ally).

The Packers will benefit from getting their divisional rival at home. No game against the Vikings will come easy due to the genius of their coaches, but McCarthy has only thrown for more than 158 yards one time in five career NFL games. This is not a sustainable approach, and I like the Packers to respond to adversity in front of their fans.

Vikings vs. Packers pick: Packers -6.5 (-105) at bet365

Patriots vs. Bengals - Nov. 23, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Patriots -8 (-110), Bengals +8 (-110)

• Moneyline: Patriots -400, Bengals +320

• Total: Over/under 49 (-110/-110)

Perhaps the Patriots, winners of eight straight, aren’t on a magic carpet ride, and they’re just a very good football team. Sure, they’ve played one of the easiest schedules in NFL history, but they beat the Buccaneers and Bills when they had to strap on their big-boy pants and take down a playoff-level opponent. Drake Maye’s MVP campaign is still in full swing, while the defense is up to ninth in EPA allowed per play.

Speaking of magic carpet rides, Joe Flacco looked like a 40-year-old quarterback again last week, going 23-40 for 199 yards, a touchdown, and an interception in a blowout loss at the hands of the Steelers. Flacco’s prospects are even dimmer this week now that Ja’Marr Chase was suspended for a game for spitting on Jalen Ramsey, meaning that the vast majority of the offense should flow through Tee Higgins. Cincy still, yes, still has the worst defense in the NFL to boot. 

Although the Patriots have played a terrible schedule for the most part, they’ve blown out most of the bad teams they faced, contributing to them going 7-3-1 ATS for the year. Flacco can throw the Bengals into the game, although he’ll have a harder time doing that without Chase. Maye has to slip up eventually, but the chances of that occurring against this defense are roughly equivalent to me getting on the field to play cornerback for Zac Taylor.

Patriots vs. Bengals pick: Patriots -8 (-110) at bet365

Giants vs. Lions - Nov. 23, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Giants +11.5 (-110), Lions -11.5 (-110)

• Moneyline: Giants +350, Lions -600

• Total: Over/under 49.5 (-110/-110)

The Giants are losers of five straight, but hey, the annual Jameis Winston appearance in a 27-20 loss to the Packers, during which they covered the spread, was a fun time. Their defense allows the most yards per carry, there appear to be internal issues with rookie Abdul Carter Jr., and their inconsistent offense is a constant hindrance. That’s an issue, since it will take a lot of offense for them to compensate for their defense.

The Lions love themselves a revenge game, as they have a long-standing streak of covering the spread coming off of a loss. Jared Goff looked horrible during last week’s 16-9 loss to the Eagles, but their defense was solid. That’s one positive to take back home, where they’ll either face an offense led by a rookie QB coming off of a concussion, or Winston, the team’s third-string QB on opening day.

There’s nothing to think about here. Yes, an 11.5-point line isn’t necessarily easy to cover, but the Lions can score points in bunches, and Dan Campbell loves running up the score on inferior teams, particularly after a loss. An alternate spread of -20 could even be in play here (don’t actually bet that).

Giants vs. Lions pick: Lions -11.5 (-110) at bet365

Jets vs. Ravens - Nov. 23, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Jets +13.5 (-110), Ravens -13.5 (-110)

• Moneyline: Jets +625, Ravens -950

• Total: Over/under 44.5 (-110/-110)

The call has been made; Tyrod Taylor will get the start for the Jets on Sunday. The veteran backup looks much more prone to actually throwing the ball downfield, although he’s still a major turnover risk. The absences of Quinnen Williams and Sauce Gardner also make the Jets much more vulnerable than they were earlier this year, during which they still looked like a bottom-five defense in the NFL.

Let’s get real about the Ravens for a minute… They look terrible. Lamar Jackson only rushed for 10 yards and threw two interceptions and no touchdowns last week in a game that the Browns basically had to hand to them for them to win. It’s nice to see that their defense held five straight teams under 20 points, although the last three in that list all had terrible quarterbacks under center.

The Ravens should blow the Jets out of the water, but there’s also very little evidence to suggest that they actually will. Baltimore’s offense looks mediocre at best, and I’m not sure that Jackson is fully mentally and physically there. I don’t know how I find myself backing the Jets so frequently, but I will be taking the points with them (and hoping this line gets to 14 before kick-off).

Jets vs. Ravens pick: Jets +13.5 (-110) at bet365

Steelers vs. Bears - Nov. 23, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Steelers +2.5 (-105), Bears -2.5 (-115)

• Moneyline: Steelers +125, Bears -150

• Total: Over/under 45 (-110/-110)

Aaron Rodgers’ injury is the elephant in the room as the NFL weekend approaches. The Steelers lead the AFC North at 6-4, but they also have a tough schedule to close the year and haven’t been convincing in any aspect. Their positions of 16th in offensive and 17th in defensive EPA per play are a fair reflection that they are as average as average gets.

Similar to the Steelers, the Bears’ 7-3 record paints them in a much better light than they deserve to be cast in. Seven wins in their last eight games is impressive, and Ben Johnson deserves credit for the job he’s done, but there are still concerns. Caleb Williams remains one of the most up-and-down players in the sport, and their defense is opportunistic, yet unable to consistently play efficiently series in and series out.

This is a matchup between two teams with striking similarities—sort of a different animal, same beast paradigm. The Bears can be much more explosive than the Steelers, but Mike Tomlin as an underdog is a scary prospect. I’d lean toward the Bears based on the expectation that Mason Rudolph will be under center, but it’s not a fun thought.

Steelers vs. Bears pick: Bears -2.5 (-115) at bet365

Seahawks vs. Titans - Nov. 23, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Seahawks -13.5 (-105), Titans +13.5 (-115)

• Moneyline: Seahawks -1000, Titans +650

• Total: Over/under 40.5 (-110/-110)

On the bright side, the Seahawks had a chance at a 61-yard field goal at the death to beat potentially the best team in the NFC, the Rams, just last Sunday. On the other hand, Sam Darnold threw four interceptions and no touchdowns, and the team lost a game in which the opposing quarterback only had 130 yards. The Seahawks’ D is elite, but they’ll need the version of Darnold that usually shows up against bad teams to be on the field instead of the version that was present last Sunday.

Everything about the Titans reeks. They are 28th in defensive and 32nd in offensive EPA per play, 31st in yards per play, and have an average scoring margin of -13. They get to play at home, but that means very little when they’re 0-5 in front of their fans, and Calvin Ridley was just ruled out for the season.

Games like last week call into question the Seahawks’ status as true contenders. Fortunately for them, the Titans are only 4-6 against the spread to favorite’s 8-2, and this spread is a reflection of the gulf in quality between the two. Look for lots of mistakes by Cam Ward and a stat-stuffing get-right game from the visitors.

Seahawks vs. Titans pick: Seahawks -13.5 (-105) at bet365

Browns vs. Raiders - Nov. 23, 4:05 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Browns +3.5 (-115), Raiders -3.5 (-105)

• Moneyline: Browns +155, Raiders -185

• Total: Over/under 36 (-110/-110)

With Dillon Gabriel in concussion protocol, there’s a possibility that Shedeur Sanders gets back on the field after a horrific NFL debut last weekend. He was put in a tough position, having not worked with the starters and not expecting to start, but many of the same issues that showed themselves in college and during the preseason were on full display. Cleveland will need to win with its defense, which it almost did against the Ravens last week.

The Raiders just got cooked by the Cowboys and are now on a short week. It’s remarkable how awful Geno Smith has looked, but the offensive line isn’t doing him or Ashton Jeanty any favors. The Vegas defense can play well in spurts, but is not strong enough to consistently support the weight of an underperforming offense.

I hate the idea of backing a Sanders-led offense, simply because I do not think he will do even a mediocre job. At the same time, I recognize the Browns’ hellacious defense and the headaches they will cause for the Raiders’ offensive line. I’d prefer to dance with the devil I know, so I’ll take the underdogs.

Browns vs. Raiders pick: Browns +3.5 (-115) at bet365

Jaguars vs. Cardinals - Nov. 23, 4:05 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Jaguars -2.5 (-115), Cardinals +2.5 (-105)

• Moneyline: Jaguars -155, Cardinals +130

• Total: Over/under 47.5 (-110/-110)

The Jags’ defense awoke from its hibernation and completely shut the water off for the Chargers last weekend, holding them to 93 total passing yards in a 35-6 victory. Trevor Lawrence has played like a bottom-five quarterback in football, yet this team is still 6-4 with room to get even better if they can develop an offensive rhythm. A strong defense will be key to the Jaguars holding onto their spot in the playoff picture.

Jacoby Brissett racked up the second-most passing yards in one game in the 2025 season on Sunday, ripping off 452 in a 41-22 loss to the 49ers. That means the Cardinals lost their last two games by 41 combined points and allowed at least 41 points in both games, part of them dropping seven of their last eight games. It’s hard to blame Brissett for any of that, as he completed 67 percent of his passes, has 10 touchdowns to three interceptions, and averaged 314 yards per start.

Brissett’s raw output through the air is impressive, but it hasn’t directly translated to winning. The bigger story is the Cardinals’ increasingly porous defense, which is 21st in EPA per play to the Jags’ 13th. That and Jacksonville still being ahead of the home team in offensive EPA per play and success rate is enough to back them laying points on the road.

Jaguars v. Cardinals pick: Jaguars -2.5 (-115) at bet365

Falcons vs. Saints - Nov. 23, 4:25 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Falcons +1.5 (-110), Saints -1.5 (-110)

• Moneyline: Falcons +105, Saints -125

• Total: Over/under 39.5 (-110/-110)

The Falcons find themselves as losers of five straight, completely reversing the feelings they had after they beat the Commanders and Bills in consecutive weeks earlier in the season. To make matters worse, Michael Penix Jr. appears to have torn an ACL for the third time, while Drake London will miss the weekend contest. The burden is shifting onto the shoulders of the defense, which quietly generated the fifth-highest pressure rate in the league.

The Saints enter the matchup feeling confident following their bye week and after seeing Tyler Shough go 19-27 for 282 yards and two touchdowns in a 17-7 win over the Panthers his last time on the field. The departure of Rashid Shaheed at the trade deadline took away the offense’s deep-field threat, and the defense is old and average. It’s time to learn if Shough is the guy he was during his last game, or during two terrible appearances before that.

I believe that Shough doesn’t belong on an NFL field as a starter. Kirk Cousins might be a backup himself, but he has 10-plus years of starting experience in the NFL and knows his teammates’ strengths and weaknesses. I also think Atlanta’s defense is the most likely of the two to create a play that changes the game.

Falcons vs. Saints pick: Falcons +1.5 (-110) at bet365

Eagles vs. Cowboys - Nov. 23, 4:25 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Eagles -3.5 (-105), Cowboys +3.5 (-115)

• Moneyline: Eagles -180, Cowboys +150

• Total: Over/under 47.5 (-110/-110)

The Eagles’ defense has done a historically great job against opposing quarterbacks, which is even more impressive considering they faced Dak Prescott, Patrick Mahomes, Matthew Stafford, Baker Mayfield, Jordan Love, and Jared Goff. At the same time, their offense is on the verge of becoming a form of cruel and unusual punishment, whether it be Jalen Hurts’ total reluctance to throw the ball, the poor blocking, or the archaic offensive designs. This team is a nightmare to figure out every week, regardless of their opponent.

The Cowboys found their swagger on Monday night in a 33-16 win over the Raiders. Their new-look defense forced an interception by Geno Smith and kept the running back committee to 13 yards on eight carries (yes, seriously). Dak Prescott also came out swinging after the bye week, throwing for 268 yards and four touchdowns.

The Eagles’ unrelenting insistence on winning games is what makes them so tough to predict. They might only score seven points and win 7-6, but if they’re trailing 30-14, they might just come back to win 31-30. Prescott and company covered in Philly in Week 1 as seven-point underdogs, and I have a feeling they could achieve something similar in the rematch.

Eagles vs. Cowboys pick: Cowboys +3.5 (-115) at bet365

Buccaneers vs. Rams - Nov. 23, 8:20 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Buccaneers +6.5 (-105), Rams -6.5 (-115)

• Moneyline: Buccaneers +260, Rams -320

• Total: Over/under 49.5 (-110/-110)

The Bucs’ status as bona fide contenders took a hit during their last two outings, both losses against the Patriots and the Bills. This team is going to find a way to run the ball and to stop the run, but Baker Mayfield has to play at a very high level to take down top-tier opponents. This will be a great test for him after he was held to 173 yards, a touchdown, and an interception in last week’s 44-32 loss.

The Rams could easily be the best team in the NFL. Not only is Stafford the MVP odds leader, but the Rams are second in offensive and sixth in defensive EPA per play. They flew closer to the sun than they should’ve in last week’s win over the Seahawks, but they’re riding a five-game winning streak and appear to play the highest level of complementary football in the league.

This is a golden opportunity for the Buccaneers to restore their status as a threat to win the NFC if they can find a way to pull off the upset on the West Coast. At the same time, it’s another week for the Rams to continue building winning habits against a strong opponent, solidifying their Super Bowl trajectory. I’m not sure that the Bucs can win, but I believe their stout run defense and Mayfield’s playmaking will help them stay within a touchdown.

Buccaneers vs. Rams pick: Buccaneers +6.5 (-105) at bet365

Panthers vs. 49ers - Nov. 24, 8:15 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Panthers +7 (-110), 49ers -7 (-110)

• Moneyline: Panthers +270, 49ers -340

• Total: Over/under 48.5 (-115/-105)

Bryce Young just had a career-defining day, going for 448 yards and three touchdowns in a 30-27 overtime victory against the Falcons. The Panthers are now 6-5 and have proven to be a competent team, whether that be with impressive numbers or upset victories, like a recent one on the road against the Packers. There can still be low lows, but this squad can be very tough to overpower.

Brock Purdy’s return to the lineup saw him go for 200 yards and three touchdowns in the Niners’ 41-22 victory against the Cardinals. Their defense has been hit or miss lately in light of all of the injuries they endured, but they’ve mostly done a nice job over the last month and a half. They did just give up 452 passing yards to Brissett, which could prove to be problematic, given Young nearly had 450 himself.

I’ve been a strong supporter of the Panthers, but this feels like an obvious let-down spot. The Niners can be a bit of a machine when they’re running the ball effectively and get an early stop or two, and Young hasn’t given me a reason to believe he will replicate anything close to last week’s performance. I’d suggest live betting the Niners if the opportunity arises, but I’d take them to cover as well.

Panthers vs. 49ers pick: 49ers -7 (-110) at bet365

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