NFL Week 3 Picks Against the Spread: Can Lions-Ravens MNF Classic Headline a Week for Underdogs?

• The Colts have covered the spread by a league-best average of 13 points

• The Dolphins have failed to cover the spread by a league-worst average of 16.3 points

• Despite the historical precedent, road favorites have been money-makers

Two straight weeks in the green with my NFL picks against the spread means that I’m picking with confidence—so which teams are getting my vote of confidence with my Week 3 spread bets?

The Indianapolis Colts shocked the world with their 2-0 start, but broke mine by sneaking past the Denver Broncos on a last-gasp field goal. I also hit big with the New England Patriots against the Miami Dolphins and the Atlanta Falcons against the Minnesota Vikings, thanks to a strong week from underdogs.

Which teams are the best bets to cover the spread in Week 3, and where am I going with my picks? Let’s dive into all of that and more.

• My 2025 NFL betting stats: 17-13-2 (56.7% ATS)

NFL Week 3 Picks ATS

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Dolphins vs. Bills - Sept. 18, 8:15 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Dolphins +12.5 (-110), Bills -12.5 (-110)

• Moneyline: Dolphins +575, Bills -850

• Total: Over/under 49.5 (-110/-110)

The Dolphins are the worst team in football against the spread. They lost a pick’em by 25 points in Week 1, and then fell as 1.5-point favorites at home in Week 2 to a division rival. Tua Tagovailoa has three touchdowns and three interceptions in two games and ranks 31st in QBR, while the defense surrendered 33 points in both games.

The Bills, much the opposite, are averaging 36.5 points and just put a beating on the New York Jets, 30-10. They gave up 40 points to the Ravens in Week 1, but those Ravens are a far cry from these Dolphins. The Bills also won 12 of their last 13 matchups.

This game presents a common conundrum for bettors: Do you take the high-flying favorite who is superior in every way, or do you take the down-and-out team that is inferior, but better than it has shown, in a divisional matchup? I’d love to take the better team here, but it’s not as if the Dolphins are completely without talent or a chance in this ball game.

Dolphins vs. Bills pick: Dolphins +12.5 (-110) at bet365

Falcons vs. Panthers - Sept. 21, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Falcons -5 (-110), Panthers +5 (-110)

• Moneyline: Falcons -240, Panthers +195

• Total: Over/under 43.5 (-110/-110)

The road team was beating the Buccaneers with less than a minute left and then wiped out the Vikings by 16 points as five-point dogs. They finally have a pass-rush, one that has proven capable of supporting the offense even when the latter is sputtering. They are a complete team with talent all over the field.

The Panthers kicked in the backdoor to cover a game in which they were never competitive against the Arizona Cardinals last week. They should be 0-2 with two double-digit losses and a quarterback in Bryce Young who has looked totally overwhelmed for seven of eight quarters. The question is whether they will show fight like they did down the stretch in 2024, or if they have been relegated yet again to being in contention for the first pick in the upcoming draft.

I’m a big believer in the Falcons and Michel Penix Jr., especially if they’re going to be able to get after the quarterback the way they did last week. However, they are on the road against a divisional opponent, and their youth could leave them susceptible to a let-down game. I’m going to take the Panthers here and will bank on Young keeping some of the momentum he found late last week.

Falcons vs. Panthers pick: Panthers +5 (-110) at bet365

Bengals vs. Vikings - Sept. 21, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Bengals +3 (-115), Vikings -3 (-105)

• Moneyline: Bengals +135, Vikings -160

• Total: Over/under 41.5 (-110/-110)

Jake Browning appears to be ready to take on Carson Wentz in the ballgame that nobody expected to ever see. Browning threw two touchdowns and three interceptions after Joe Burrow left with a toe injury, yet he led a game-winning drive thanks to an explosive afternoon from Ja’Marr Chase. Cincinnati’s defense was terrible once again, though they did catch the interceptions Trevor Lawrence placed in their lap.

The Vikings are arguably the best-coached team in football and have plenty of reps working with backup quarterbacks. Wentz has started games in the NFL and is capable of putting together a strong performance, given the strength and support of Minnesota’s defense. Establishing the run and overpowering a weak Bengals defense will be key for the home team.

Kevin O’Connell and Brian Flores can absolutely coach circles around Zac Taylor. Browning is a reputable backup quarterback and can win games, but he can also make mistakes, ones that Flores’ defense will be keen to capitalize on. Look for turnovers to define this matchup, and for the Vikings to find themselves on the winning end.

Bengals vs. Vikings pick: Vikings -3 (-105) at bet365

Packers vs. Browns - Sept. 21, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Packers -8 (-110), Browns +8 (-110)

• Moneyline: Packers -400, Browns +320

• Total: Over/under 41.5 (-110/-110)

The Packers just might be the best team in football at this moment, given the beatings they put on the Detroit Lions and Washington Commanders. Jordan Love is extremely aggressive, pushing the ball downfield, and the defense is fast, physical, and connected. It’s very early, but this team looks like the Eagles did last year.

The Browns only scored 17 points and turned the ball over twice last week. There’s a chance they turn to Dillon Gabriel, but that feels like it would be a huge mistake against a defense of this caliber. Their defense only allowed 17 points in Week 1 and 242 yards of offense in Week 2, although they just gave up 41 points to the Ravens.

Laying large spreads with road teams is never fun, but then again, that’s been a successful approach thus far. Green Bay looks like a juggernaut and figures to completely overwhelm a relatively immobile Flacco. It’s low-hanging fruit, but look for the Browns to suffer yet another blowout loss. 

Packers vs. Browns pick: Packers -8 (-110) at bet365

Texans vs. Jaguars - Sept. 21, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Texans +1.5 (-110), Jaguars -1.5 (-110)

• Moneyline: Texans +110, Jaguars -130

• Total: Over/under 44 (-110/-110)

Was C.J. Stroud’s sophomore slump the outlier or the norm? The former Rookie of the Year can still make plays, but he’s nowhere near as effective as he was when he first stepped into the league. On the bright side, the Texans’ defense is one of the stingiest units in the league and held its first two opponents to an average of 14.5 points.

Liam Coen is the clubhouse leader for the bone-headed decision of the year after he went for it on fourth down inside the Bengals’ 10-yard line in the fourth quarter while leading by three. After that attempt failed, his defense then allowed Jake Browning to march down the field and secure a comeback victory, spurred by a defensive pass interference call on Travis Hunter. Needless to say, all of the potential that exists in Jacksonville hasn’t quite coalesced. 

The Texans won the AFC South each of the last two years. The Jags have been viewed as the top challenger, although they haven’t been able to sustain a level of play adequate for a division champion. I have my reservations about Trevor Lawrence, but Stroud’s inconsistency combined with the nature of the divisional matchup and Jacksonville getting home-field advantage makes me believe they can pull this one out. 

Texans vs. Jaguars pick: Jaguars -1.5 (-110) at bet365

Colts vs. Titans - Sept. 21, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Colts -3.5 (-110), Titans +3.5 (-110)

• Moneyline: Colts -170, Titans +145

• Total: Over/under 43.5 (-110/-110)

Daniel Jones is second in the NFL in passing yards and just steered the Colts to a last-gasp, come-from-behind win at home against the Broncos. Jonathan Taylor was outstanding his last time out, and Indy’s defense, while not perfect, has been better than expected and much better than in recent years. Shane Steichen is proving once again why he’s one of the top offensive minds in the sport with a competent quarterback.

The Titans showed life against the Rams, although they were clearly the inferior team. Their primary problems are creating separation outside of the numbers and getting after the quarterback, which is why they’ve been outscored by 22 points in two games. Still, first-overall pick Cam Ward has shown that he can make plays—even if they are extremely risky.

The Colts are definitely a surprise team to monitor, but they’ve also played much better than expected. The Titans have shown flashes but haven’t put an entire 48 minutes together yet, although they were huge underdogs in both of their first two games. This feels like a spot where they could be competitive, if not win outright for the first time in Ward’s pro career.

Colts vs. Titans pick: Titans +3.5 (-110) at bet365

Rams vs. Eagles - Sept. 21, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Rams +3.5 (-115), Eagles -3.5 (-105)

• Moneyline: Rams +160, Eagles -190

• Total: Over/under 44.5 (-110/-110)

Matthew Stafford is slinging the ball around just as well as anyone in the NFL, and LA’s defense held its opponents to an average of 14 points per game. Sean McVay is an excellent head coach, and the Rams played the Eagles tougher than anyone in the playoffs last year. This will be a great chance to find out if they have the physicality to match their precision and sharp execution.

The Eagles are 2-0, but they’ve been disappointing relative to their standard. The defense was a mess in the opener, and their offense was held to 216 total yards and 20 points against the Chiefs last week – seven of those coming after an interception set them up in a strong field position. Jalen Hurts wins games, but he also doesn’t throw the ball downfield, and Saquon Barkley only has 148 yards through two games.

The Rams are right in the middle of the league in rushing defense, but have first-hand experience of being burned by Barkley last year. I believe they will send extra bodies into the box to stop him, particularly with Hurts’ poor downfield passing, and the Eagles' terrible passing concepts. Stafford is flinging the ball, and LA can cover, if not win this game.

Rams vs. Eagles pick: Rams +3.5 (-115) at bet365

Raiders vs. Commanders - Sept. 21, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Raiders +3.5 (-110), Commanders -3.5 (-110)

• Moneyline: Raiders +155, Commanders -185

• Total: Over/under 44.5 (-110/-110)

Jayden Daniels’ knee sprain has put his status into question for this matchup. Even with him healthy, Washington’s offense has looked disjointed through the first two games, and their poor balance of run and pass played a role in them getting physically dominated by the Packers two weeks ago. On the bright side, their defense looks better, and they had 10 days of rest to recover and prepare for this game.

The Raiders are on the road in a short week after they got their butts kicked at home on MNF. Geno Smith threw three interceptions to the Chargers, and the team never had the chance to break into the end zone. Ashton Jeanty also has not gotten going, which has put pressure on Smith and an undermanned defense.

Maxx Crosby can play a pivotal role in this game if he can take advantage of struggling rookie tackle Josh Conerly Jr. However, even with an injured Daniels or a healthy Marcus Mariota, the Commanders have far more firepower. Washington’s aggressive defense will turn the heat up on Smith, and his ability to play a clean game should directly correlate to the final score.

Raiders vs. Commanders pick: Commanders -3.5 (-110) at bet365

Steelers vs. Patriots - Sept. 21, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Steelers -1.5 (-105), Patriots +1.5 (-115) 

• Moneyline: Steelers -120, Patriots +100

• Total: Over/under 44.5 (-110/-110)

The Steelers’ 14-point loss last week was much closer than it appeared, although Aaron Rodgers threw two interceptions to make sure the team couldn’t take advantage of the two they took off of Sam Darnold. Rogers has been reluctant to push the ball down the field more times than not, and the running game has been persistent but ineffective. This is still a team that needs to win with defense and by playing within the margins.

The Patriots’ offense looked much better last week against a terrible Dolphins defense than it did during their opener against the Raiders. The running game still seems a little imbalanced, but the offense moved the ball well through the air. The defense also forced turnovers, but was too easy to cut through.

This should be a close game. A Patriots cover would likely mean they covered the spread, and although Mike Tomlin is just as comfortable in one-score games as anyone, I have a suspicion the Pats will walk away with the W here. Their offense is simply more dynamic, and I believe their defense can be as opportunistic as Pittsburgh’s.

Steelers vs. Patriots pick: Patriots +1.5 (-115) at bet365

Jets vs. Buccaneers - Sept. 21, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Jets +7 (-105), Buccaneers -7 (-115)

• Moneyline: Jets +270, Buccaneers -340

• Total: Over/under 45.5 (-110/-110)

It’s unclear if Justin Fields will clear concussion protocol in time for the game, but for what it’s worth, backup Tyrod Taylor had a 93.4 QBR last week, while Fields had a 1.1. Yes, you read that correctly. The football world overreacted to the Jets’ offensive showing in Week 1 and forgot to pay attention to the defense, which has surrendered 30+ points in back-to-back weeks.

The Buccaneers have won two games in the final minute, but neither was by luck. They continually show up big in the clutch moments, while their defense has done a solid job of making life difficult for both Michael Penix Jr. and C.J. Stroud. This team might have the best offense in football, along with an aggressive and steady defense.

Ironically, Taylor could be a higher-floor player than Fields on a week-to-week basis. He’s continually forgotten about among the QB landscape and is more than capable of putting together a solid outing against a defense that takes risks, but that can be burned. This is a large line, and I’d prefer to take the underdog (yet again in these picks).

Jets vs. Buccaneers pick: Jets +7 (-105) at bet365

Broncos vs. Chargers - Sept. 21, 4:05 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Broncos +2.5 (-110), Chargers -2.5 (-110)

• Moneyline: Broncos +125, Chargers -150

• Total: Over/under 45.5 (-110/-110)

Bo Nix has played six quarters of terrible football, and two, in the first half against the Colts, that were excellent. He’s been the most inefficient quarterback in the league on aggregate, and that’s despite having the best offensive line in football through two weeks. The defense also took a major step back last week against an offense that wasn’t led by a rookie QB making his first career start.

The Chargers are already 2-0 and 2-0 against the division thanks to their wins over the Chiefs and Raiders. Omarion Hampton hasn’t gotten going yet, but Justin Herbert looks to be in NFL MVP form. The defense also snagged three interceptions off of Geno Smith on the road on Monday and now gets to head to its home stadium.

Nix has been playing terribly, while Herbert has been awesome. Denver has the personnel to be the best defensive team in football, but LA also has game-changers and one of the sharpest defensive minds in football in Jim Harbaugh on the headset. I love how this sets up for the home team in another divisional matchup.

Broncos vs. Chargers pick: Chargers -2.5 (-110) at bet365

Saints vs. Seahawks - Sept. 21, 4:05 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Saints +7.5 (-115), Seahawks -7.5 (-105)

• Moneyline: Saints +320, Seahawks -400

• Total: Over/under 41.5 (-110/-110)

Don’t look now, but Spencer Rattler has better stats than Caleb Williams, and he hasn’t been awful to start the year. I still believe this team will pick first in the 2026 NFL Draft, but they could’ve done worse than five- and seven-point losses to the 49ers and the Cardinals. The question is how long they have until their early-season optimism wears off, and they resign to being uncompetitive for another season.

The Seahawks beat the Steelers by 14 points in Week 2, but the game was much closer than that score suggested. Sam Darnold also threw two interceptions, but was bailed out by his defense stealing two back off of Aaron Rodgers. On the bright side, their offense looked much more balanced last week after they opened the year by flooding everything through wideout Jaxon Smith-Njigba.

I’ve leaned into the underdogs so far, and I’m sticking to that for this matchup. The Saints are going to struggle to win games, but they have the talent to stay within a touchdown at home against a team that committed four turnovers in two games. This also figures to be a lower-scoring game, which mathematically works to the advantage of large-spread underdogs. 

Saints vs. Seahawks pick: Saints +7.5 (-115) at bet365

Cardinals vs. 49ers - Sept. 21, 4:25 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Cardinals +1.5 (-110), 49ers -1.5 (-110)

• Moneyline: Cardinals +105, 49ers -125

• Total: Over/under 43.5 (-110/-110)

Early-season Kyler Murray is back in full force, as the Cardinals rank 10th in EPA per dropback and would’ve been 2-0 against the spread had the Panthers not scored 13 meaningless points in the fourth quarter of last week’s contest, which the Cardinals led 27-9. It’s concerning that this team doesn’t have better advanced defensive metrics, seeing as they’ve only played the Saints and Panthers, but they still look more like a cohesive unit than they did in recent years.

The thing with proficient backup quarterbacks is that they should be able to play one good game when called upon, but they are liable to throw up a stinker the following week. Mac Jones played his good game, going for 279 yards and three touchdowns against the Saints, but he now has to face a division rival that is looking to stay undefeated. San Fran’s defense has been better than Arizona’s, but they also faced a weak slate of offenses.

I’m not a Kyler guy, but I’m also not a Mac Jones guy – and I’m much more of a Kyler than a Mac guy. The Niners have the advantage on defense, but with Christian McCaffrey struggling to get going on the ground and several important offensive injuries, I could see this team scoring 14 or fewer points. Give me the division upset on the road.

Cardinals vs. 49ers pick: Cardinals +1.5 (-110) at bet365

Cowboys vs. Bears - Sept. 21, 4:25 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Cowboys +1 (-115), Bears -1 (-105)

• Moneyline: Cowboys -110, Bears -110

• Total: Over/under 50 (-110/-110)

Dallas’ offense seems legit. They impressed in the season opener against the Eagles and hung 40 points on the Giants in Week 2, all while having a running game that was much better than advertised. However, there are serious questions about their defense after they were torn to pieces by Russell Wilson, who was flat-out awful in Week 1.

Caleb Williams’ inaccuracy is a major issue for the Bears. In unrelated news, their defense just surrendered 52 points to the Lions, which begs the question of whether Ben Johnson deserved all of the credit for Detroit’s offense for the past few years. The Bears are currently just 22nd in offensive and 29th in defensive EPA per play, and they will be under the microscope against the most popular team in America.

The problem with handicapping Bears games is that Williams and the offense will look like world-beaters for a couple of series, and then they will seem as if they’ve never played football before. Neither defense is anything to write home about, all of which contributes to this game receiving the second-highest projected total of the week. The unit I’m most confident in is the Cowboys’ offense, which is why I’d back them in this spot.

Cowboys vs. Bears pick: Cowboys +1 (-115) at bet365

Chiefs vs. Giants - Sept. 21, 8:20 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Chiefs -6 (-115), Giants +6 (-105)

• Moneyline: Chiefs -280, Giants +230

• Total: Over/under 45 (-110/-110)

The Chiefs’ defense allowed the highest success rate in the NFL, while their offense is just 23rd in the category. Essentially, that means the Chiefs, who are 0-2 for the first time in the Patrick Mahomes era, are consistently playing behind the chains. Their offense was severely limited to begin with, and injuries combined with a terrible running game have left them looking like an average team.

The Giants played a horrific game of offense in the opener, and then they were sensational in Week 2. The downside is that they’re 0-2 and just gave up 40 points, but the vibe – at least in the offensive meeting rooms – has to be better than it was just over one week ago. NY’s secondary and linebackers will be tested against a player with Mahomes’ ingenuity, but their defensive line will get to tee off against an o-line that hasn’t gotten much of a push on the ground.

This is the ultimate get-right spot for the Chiefs, if one exists. Steve Spagnuolo blitzed Jalen Hurts on nearly two-thirds of his dropbacks last week and could have a similar approach for Wilson, who was skittish after being besieged in the opener. I’d love to get this line at +7.5 and take the Giants, but I’ll begrudgingly take the Chiefs.

Chiefs vs. Giants pick: Chiefs -6 (-115) at bet365

Lions vs. Ravens - Sept. 22, 8:15 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Lions +5 (-110), Ravens -5 (-110)

• Moneyline: Lions +205, Ravens -250

• Total: Over/under 51.5 (-110/-110)

Talk about an excellent primetime matchup. The Lions are riding high after they whacked the Bears by 31 points last week, rebounding from a pounding at the hands of the Packers in Week 1. Jared Goff will be asked to make plays against potentially the best quarterback in the world, but the biggest question is how the defense will hold up, particularly with their corners struggling early on.

The Ravens had a 15-point lead over the Bills with four minutes left in Week 1 and somehow lost that game. They responded with their second-straight 40-point game in a blowout win over the Browns, and they now get to face the worst defense they’ve seen up to this point. Detroit’s defense ranks third in EPA allowed per rush, and that will be tested by Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry.

An offensive explosion should be the expectation here, which means that a five-point line isn’t as big as it might seem. The Lions’ aggressiveness will keep them in this game from a betting perspective, and they’re talented enough to win outright. However, I like the Ravens better, and a late touchdown after a back-and-forth tie game would mean they still covered the spread.

Lions vs. Ravens pick: Ravens -5 (-110) at bet365

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