NFL Week 9 Picks Against the Spread: Chiefs Favored Over Bills, Which Contender Will Fall Short?

• The Patriots and Colts are a joint-league-best 6-2 against the spread

• The Titans and Saints are both 2-6 ATS, tying them for the worst mark in the league

• The Cardinals are the only team with a losing record overall and a winning record ATS

The 2025 NFL season is about to be halfway over, but the storylines are just as plentiful as they were in Week 1.

Here at WSN, the biggest headline is the winning streak involving my NFL picks against the spread. I only had one losing week during the first two months of the season, and I’m excited to roll that over into yet another week of action.

Looking for my best bets against the spread for NFL Week 9? Look no further.

These are my best NFL picks for the upcoming games.

• My 2025 NFL betting stats: 66-52-2 (55.9% ATS)

NFL Week 9 Picks ATS

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Ravens vs. Dolphins - Oct. 30, 8:15 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Ravens -7.5 ($.53), Dolphins +7.5 ($.48)

• Moneyline: Ravens $.78, Dolphins $.23

• Total: Over/under 50.5 ($.49/$.53)

The word around town is that Lamar Jackson will be back under center for the Ravens on Thursday, four days after they shocked the Bears to earn just their second win of the season. The defense was much better than it had been before the bye, and Derrick Henry was, well, Derrick Henry. Lamar likely won’t be his best self, but he also shouldn’t need to be to beat the Dolphins.

Speaking of the Fins, they were the talk of the NFL on Sunday as they went on the road to throttle the Falcons, 34-10. That’s after they’d lost six of seven games and had seemingly been on the verge of an implosion, although that will be on pause for at least another few days. Tua Tagovailoa played his best game of the season and threw a first-quarter touchdown for the first time in 13 games.

The Ravens’ defense showed strong improvement after its bye week last year, and they got off to a good start to having history repeat itself. Jackson isn’t guaranteed to play and might not be as sharp as he could be, but last Sunday was clearly an outlier performance for the Dolphins. Still, going on the road on a short week and not having the elements on Baltimore’s side could lead to a home cover.

Ravens vs. Dolphins pick: Dolphins +7.5 ($.48) at Kalshi

Falcons vs. Patriots - Nov. 2, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Falcons +4.5 ($.46), Patriots -4.5 ($.55)

• Moneyline: Falcons $.32, Patriots $.69

• Total: Over/under 46 ($.46/$.55)

There’s belief that Michael Penix Jr. and Drake London will be back in the fold for the Falcons after they were all-systems-failure on Sunday. The Falcons are a strange team in that they can have random moments of greatness on offense, and their defense is the best it's been in recent years, yet they can’t be counted on to show up every weekend. All things considered, it’s surprising they aren’t a larger underdog.

Drake Maye is the hottest thing in the NFL this season and is off to a truly historic start. Mike Vrabel’s defense also held five straight opponents to 20 or fewer points, although they played terrible offenses in four of those games. This is a slight step up in competition and will be a good test for them.

The whole world should be on the Patriots -6.5, which in itself is terrifying. An injury to Divine Deablo will make the Falcons weak in the middle of the field, and the Pats’ defensive strength is against the run. There just aren’t many reasons to have confidence in the Falcons, especially on the road.

Falcons vs. Patriots pick: Patriots -6.5 ($.46) at Kalshi

Panthers vs. Packers - Nov. 2, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Panthers +13.5 ($.49), Packers -13.5 ($.54)

• Moneyline: Panthers $.14, Packers $.87

• Total: Over/under 43.5 ($.55/$.46)

The Andy Dalton experience went down in flames, as the veteran went 16/2 for 175 yards and a pick in a 40-9 blowout loss to the Bills. Not to fear, Bryce Young has a chance to make his return to the field, where Carolina had a terrific running game with him in action. The Panthers’ defense was obliterated on the ground against Buffalo, but their offense didn’t do them any favors.

The Packers are explosive through the air, but they balance that with a firm commitment to running the football. Their once-suffocating defense has become strangely porous recently, although they still generate lots of pressure. Covering a line this large at home would likely require Jordan Love to play a clean game, and for the D to play better than it has recently.

The Panthers’ defense has been very solid this season, last week notwithstanding. The Packers, meanwhile, have been a machine on offense, but less consistent on defense over recent weeks. Big plays will define this game, and I believe the Panthers’ D will do its part to cover this line.

Panthers vs. Packers pick: Panthers +13.5 ($.49) at Kalshi

Bears vs. Bengals - Nov. 2, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Bears -2.5 ($.52), Bengals +2.5 ($.50)

• Moneyline: Bears $.59, Bengals $.42

• Total: Over/under 51.5 ($.54/$.47)

Caleb Williams’ inaccuracy, once again, is a major issue for the Bears. The plays are there to be made with solid weapons, a strong offensive line, and a terrific play-designer, but he often leads himself into mistakes with poor decision-making or mechanics. It also doesn’t inspire much confidence knowing that the Bears gave up 30 points to the Snoopy Huntley-led Ravens last week.

The Bengals’ defense is truly horrific—so much so that they just let up 39 points to the no longer winless Jets. On the flip side, Joe Flacco looks capable of sustaining productive play with Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins outside the numbers. Most of the Bengals’ remaining games will probably be shootouts, which means there’s pressure on Flacco to play clean games to keep the team going.

The Bears do a better job of forcing interceptions than any team in the league, but Flacco hasn’t thrown one in three games with his new team. Williams also won’t fix his issues until he cleans up his fundamentals, which isn’t exactly a change that can be made mid-season. Still, I like the Bears’ defense more, so I’ll back them on the road.

Bears vs. Bengals pick: Bears -2.5 ($.52) at Kalshi

Broncos vs. Texans - Nov. 2, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Broncos +2.5 ($.56), Texans -2.5 ($.48)

• Moneyline: Broncos $.51, Texans $.50

• Total: Over/under 38.5 ($.56/$.46)

The Broncos’ defense has been nothing short of sensational, as they just quelled the fire that had been the Cowboys’ offense, holding Dak Prescott to 188 yards and two interceptions. Bo Nix played really well over the last five quarters, but he’d been fairly terrible during the entire season beforehand. At 6-2, it’s a testament to what the Broncos have in place, and their capability as a team.

C.J. Stroud was cooking again last week, going for 318 yards, two touchdowns, and an inconsequential interception in a 26-15 win over the 49ers. Houston’s defense was not only predictably great against the pass, but they only let Christian McCaffrey take eight carries for 25 yards. They’re slowly looking like a solid team, but they still have questions to answer to rejoin the ranks as AFC South contenders.

Broncos vs. Texans pick: Broncos +2.5 ($.56) at Kalshi

Colts vs. Steelers - Nov. 2, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Colts -3.5 ($.48), Steelers +3.5 ($.53)

• Moneyline: Colts $.63, Steelers $.38

• Total: Over/under 49.5 ($.53/$.49)

Indy is simply destroying the charts with how efficient their offense is. Jonathan Taylor is on a very real charge toward the league MVP trophy, and although the Colts’ defense is only about average, that’s more than enough to get by, given what their offense is doing. It’s hard not to believe the fairy tale is coming to an end for Daniel Jones, but then again, it still hasn’t for Sam Darnold.

The Steelers’ offense is capable of moving the football, but they just might have the worst pass defense in the sport. Mike Tomlin’s usual level of defensive buy-in has been nonexistent, which is why the team still doesn’t seem all that good despite being 4-3. With two straight losses hanging over them, it’s not hard to find the motivation for this game.

The Steelers’ defense has been off the mark all year, which is flat-out unacceptable for a team that devotes more money to that side of the football than any other squad. The Colts haven’t given up many big plays, but they have let teams papercut their way down the field. I don’t love it, but Tomlin is outstanding as a home underdog, and he gets my vote of confidence.

Colts vs. Steelers pick: Steelers +3.5 ($.53) at Kalshi

Chargers vs. Titans - Nov. 2, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Chargers -9.5 ($.53), Titans +9.5 ($.50)

• Moneyline: Chargers $.84, Titans $.18

• Total: Over/under 43.5 ($.51/$.52)

Justin Herbert eviscerated Brian Flores’ defense on TNF, going for 227 yards, three touchdowns, and an interception in a 37-10 win capped off by 117 rushing yards from Kimani Vidal. It’s been quite an up-and-down year for the Bolts, but they looked much better with Joe Alt back at tackle. They’ve also had a long week of rest to prepare for this game.

The Titans, well, they’re not very good at football. They got boat raced by the Colts and Patriots in consecutive weeks and are now just 1-7 and potentially on track to have the first pick in the draft yet again. They need help at every position on the field, although Cam Ward quietly ripped some nice throws last Sunday.

The Titans aren’t really within a touchdown of many teams in the league. The Chargers aren’t fully healthy and are therefore far from perfect, but they have a decided advantage, even on the road. Chalk talk yet again for me.

Chargers vs. Titans pick: Chargers -9.5 ($.53) at Kalshi

Vikings vs. Lions - Nov. 2, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Vikings +9.5 ($.49), Lions -9.5 ($.53)

• Moneyline: Vikings $.20, Lions $.81

• Total: Over/under 48.5 ($.49/$.54)

J.J. McCarthy will make his return to the lineup in a tough spot for the Vikings. They’re desperate for offensive production, but they also have to be careful not to load too much pressure onto the shoulders of what is still a player preparing to make his third start. On the flip side, Minnesota’s pass defense really struggled the last couple of weeks despite being outstanding to start the year.

The Lions are coming off a bye week after they shellacked an injury-riddled Tampa Bay Buccaneers squad behind a stellar performance from their defense. They still have the pain of a loss to the Chiefs scarring them, and they can get back on track against a division rival they know well. Detroit is currently 4th in defensive and 7th in offensive EPA per play this season.

Dan Campbell isn’t hesitant to run up the score on his opponents whenever he can. The Vikings defense probably won’t have as many holes as it did the last couple of outings, but I don’t believe the offense can come anywhere close to keeping pace with the home team. The Lions are also 5-2 ATS, while the Vikings are 3-4.

Vikings vs. Lions pick: Lions -9.5 ($.53) at Kalshi

49ers vs. Giants - Nov. 2, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: 49ers -2.5 ($.55), Giants +2.5 ($.47)

• Moneyline: 49ers $.59, Giants $.42

• Total: Over/under 48.5 ($.54/$.49)

Whether it’s Mac Jones or Brock Purdy who is under center for the 49ers, they have about the same chance at succeeding as the other. Jones has quietly been really solid while filling in as the starter, although Christian McCaffrey followed up his first 100-yard game of the season with a total dud against the Texans. San Fran’s defense might be injured, but they’ve also proven they can overcome that by beating the Rams and Falcons within the last month.

No Cam Skattebo and no Malik Nabers means that rookie QB Jaxson Dart is really up against it. The 22-year-old is wily and willing to take risks, but playing against a stacked deck only goes so far. The Giants’ secondary is also terrible, while they rank 31st in success rate against the run.

With the G-Men struggling to contain opposing running backs, this matchup leans heavily in the direction of the 49ers. Jones and Purdy can play well enough in Kyle Shanahan’s system to win games, and Dart is a rookie who doesn’t have much talent around him.

49ers vs. Giants pick: 49ers -2.5 ($.55) at Kalshi

Jaguars vs. Raiders - Nov. 2, 4:05 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Jaguars -3.5 ($.49), Raiders +3.5 ($.54)

• Moneyline: Jaguars ($.62), Raiders ($.38)

• Total: Over/under 44.5 ($.52/$.49)

The Jaguars’ red-hot start came to a screeching halt with losses to the Seahawks and Rams, the second of which was a 35-7 blowout in London. They got to take last week off to rest and recover, and hopefully, find a way to fully unlock the struggling Brian Thomas Jr. Jacksonville’s defense has been great, and they’re reportedly looking to buy at the deadline.

The Raiders are also coming off a bye week after they were throttled by the Chiefs, 31-0. They have one of the worst offensive lines in the league, and Geno Smith seems to have completely forgotten how to navigate an NFL pocket and throw the football. Their defense is alright but continues to be put in compromising positions.

The Jags have been the better team by a wide margin. Although their offense has been strange, to say the least, I have full faith in Liam Coen’s ability to bring the best out of them, particularly after a bye week. Vegas’ roster, on the other hand, looks multiple drafts and free-agency classes away from being competitive.

Jaguars vs. Raiders pick: Jaguars -3.5 ($.49) at Kalshi

Saints vs. Rams - Nov. 2, 4:05 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Saints -13.5 ($.54), Rams +13.5 ($.47)

• Moneyline: Saints $.11, Rams $.89

• Total: Over/under 44.5 ($.49/$.54)

The Tyler Shough experience is underway, as the rookie was announced as the starter on Sunday. Saints fans should be petrified by that, as the 26-year-old rookie (yes, you read that correctly) had a QBR of 7.7 after launching 30 pass attempts last week. I expect Shough to lose his starting spot to Spencer Rattler in very short order, while New Orleans’ average defense isn’t enough to bail them out.

The Rams were firing on all cylinders when they played the Jags heading into their bye week. They are expecting to have Puka Nacua back in the mix, and they also added Roger McCreary in a trade with the Tennessee Titans. This team is poised to make a run at the NFC title and has arguably the best coach in the NFL with extra time to prepare.

Any chance of the Saints scoring will likely come from the Rams overlooking them before they visit the 49ers the following week. I believe Shough is terrible and is about 60 minutes of football (if that) away from showing that to the world. Laying a number this large is never fun, but it’s a necessary evil.

Saints vs. Rams pick: Rams -13.5 ($.54) at Kalshi 

Chiefs vs. Bills - Nov. 2, 4:25 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Chiefs -2.5 ($.50), Bills +2.5 ($.53)

• Moneyline: Chiefs $.53, Bills $.47

• Total: Over/under 52.5 ($.51/$.52)

Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs have their swagger back! They lead the league in offensive success rate and are third in EPA per play, while Mahomes is the odds-on MVP favorite. The defense was actually unimpressive last week, despite only giving up seven points, but they’re hanging around the top 10 for the year overall.

The Bills can’t beat the Chiefs in the playoffs, but they can in the regular season! The team returned from two straight losses before its bye week to blow out the Panthers last Sunday, 40-9, behind over 200 yards rushing from James Cook. Their run defense has been terrible, but the Chiefs’ running game is close to non-existent without Mahomes’ scrambles (especially with Isaiah Pacheco’s new knee injury).

I believe the Chiefs are the much better team here. Josh Allen has played well, but he hasn’t been at Mahomes’ level. KC has a tall order trying to corral the red-hot Cook, but I like the way Mahomes is using his arm and legs, and I’d rather have Andy Reid in the headset.

Chiefs vs. Bills pick: Chiefs -2.5 ($.50) at Kalshi

Seahawks vs. Commanders - Nov. 2, 8:20 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Seahawks -3.5 ($.48), Commanders +3.5 ($.54)

• Moneyline: Seahawks $.62, Commanders $.38

• Total: Over/under 47.5 ($.48/$.53)

The Seahawks look like one of the best teams in the NFL behind their dominant defense and MVP-level play from Sam Darnold.  They’re flying across the country to get to D.C., but they also have the benefit of a full week of rest following their bye. One of the keys in this matchup will be their downfield passing game, which ranks seventh in success rate and ninth in EPA per play, against a defense that has been porous in the secondary.

The Commanders’ defense turned in its best half of football last week, forcing two turnovers and holding the Chiefs to seven points in primetime. However, the sputtering offense only managed seven points during the entire game, and they endured even more injuries. The team hasn’t managed one complete performance and has more injury issues than any team in football.

The best version of the Commanders would cover this line, but that version hasn’t shown up. It’s unclear if Laremy Tunsil, Terry McLaurin, and Javon Kinlaw will even be available, not to mention Jayden Daniels is just returning from his hamstring injury. The Commanders are also on a short week after being in KC on Monday, which makes their prospects even worse.

Seahawks vs. Commanders pick: Seahawks -3.5 ($.48) at Kalshi

Cardinals vs. Cowboys - Nov. 3, 8:15 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Cardinals +2.5 ($.47), Cowboys -2.5 ($.54)

• Moneyline: Cardinals $.42, Cowboys $.59

• Total: Over/under 54.5 ($.49/$.52)

The Cardinals are another team that had a bye last week, giving them a merciful break from their five-game skid. Kyler Murray’s play has been insufficient when on the field, and he was lost to injury toward the end of the losing streak. The Arizona defense has also taken multiple steps backward after a solid start to the year.

The Cowboys’ explosive passing game was quelled by the Broncos in a blowout loss last week. Their defense is awful, and any source of life they have will need to come from Dak Prescott and company. They have much more of a punch than the Cardinals, but their defense seems to be willing to let any team in the league hang around in games.

This is tough to call since the Cardinals are coming off of a bye week. Murray hasn’t been that good, but neither have several other quarterbacks who torched the Cowboys defense. I actually find myself inclined to take the visitors, who are still capable of playing like a solid team every now and again.

Cardinals vs. Cowboys pick: Cardinals +2.5 ($.47) at Kalshi

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