Sam Darnold completed 12 of his 17 passes for 124 yards and a touchdown in last week’s win over the 49ers
In two games against the Rams this season, Darnold threw six interceptions
Darnold has attempted fewer than 30 passes in three straight games
Sam Darnold will no doubt be one of the key players to watch during Sunday’s NFC Championship Game, as the Seattle Seahawks host the Los Angeles Rams. Thanks to his teammates, Darnold didn’t have to do much in last week’s Divisional Round win over the 49ers. He completed 12 of his 17 passes for 124 yards and a touchdown while dealing with a lingering oblique issue. However, the Seahawks might need more than that out of their starting quarterback to beat the Rams for the second time this season.
Heading into championship weekend, the Seahawks are the betting favorites to win Super Bowl LX. However, the odds are tight, as Seattle isn’t exactly an overwhelming favorite. Of course, since the Seahawks are the Super Bowl favorites, it’s not surprising to see Darnold as the leading favorite to be Super Bowl MVP. That puts a fair amount of pressure on Darnold to deliver in a big game despite the NFC Championship Game being just his third career playoff start.
Needless to say, Darnold is a fascinating player to target for prop bets this week. Between his oblique injury, the stakes of the game, and the opponent, it’s not easy to forecast how Darnold will perform
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The Seahawks have to know that their chances of winning decline the more passes that Darnold throws, especially if he’s hindered in any way by his oblique issue. Seattle only needed Darnold to make 17 pass attempts last week. If the Seahawks can keep Darnold’s pass attempts under 30 this week, they should be in good shape.
Darnold’s oblique problem aside, the Rams are a lot more vulnerable on the ground than through the air because of their great pass rush. In fact, both teams might find that their path to victory is in the ground game. The Seahawks, in particular, will try to win with their running game and their defense, which is why Darnold will be limited to fewer than 30 pass attempts.
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It stands to reason that the Seahawks will want to stay conservative with their passing attack this week. They won’t want to put too much on Darnold’s shoulders, especially if his oblique injury is affecting his throws. That’s a good reason to bet against Darnold having an interception.
However, in two games against the Rams this season, Darnold threw six interceptions. The Rams had just 10 picks in their other 15 games, but they had six against Darnold and the Seahawks. While the Los Angeles secondary is nothing special, the Rams have an exceptional pass rush. That group was a factor in forcing three interceptions by Caleb Williams last week. Given his track record against the Rams this season, we have to believe Darnold will throw at least one pick this week.
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Assuming the Seahawks take a conservative approach in the passing game, it’s a safe bet Darnold won’t have a completion beyond 37.5 yards. Of course, Jaxon Smith-Njigba is always a threat to make a play down the field. But the Seahawks will probably resist the urge to take a lot of deep shots.
Once again, Darnold’s oblique issue could play a role, as the Seahawks may not want him exerting himself on deep passes. Plus, only three times in his last nine games has Darnold had a completion of over 37.5 yards. Look for that safe approach to continue in the NFC Championship Game.
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Completions: 323
Attempts: 477
Yards: 4,048
Completion Percentage: 67.7%
Yards per Pass: 8.5
Passing Touchdowns: 24
Interceptions: 14
Carries: 35
Rushing Yards: 95
Yards Per Carry: 2.7
Rushing Touchdowns: 0
Rams vs Seahawks NFC Championship Prediction
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