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Bills vs. Patriots Prop Bets SNF Week 5: Top Two Teams in the AFC East Battle

Published: October 3, 2025, 10:30 AM ET
5 min read
  • The Buffalo Bills are Super Bowl favorites

  • The Bills lead the AFC East, followed by the Patriots 

  • Buffalo is the only undefeated team in the AFC

The Buffalo Bills are in a class of their own in the AFC Championship standings. The Bills are the lone undefeated team in the conference, and they’re playing great heading into Week 5. 

The New England Patriots are 2-2 and coming off a dominant win over the Panthers. They’ll look to spoil Buffalo’s perfect season, and I have identified three props for the game on bet365. 

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SNF Prop Bets Week 5

Best Bills vs. Patriots Prop Bets in SNF Week 5

Josh Allen Over 226.5 Passing Yards (-110) at bet365

Josh Allen is the NFL MVP favorite right now by a long shot. The quarterback was one of the favorites to open the season, but his odds have shortened drastically since Lamar Jackson’s injury. 

Allen is the best quarterback in the NFL right now and it’s not particularly close. Allen can run and throw, which makes him very dangerous. 

His multifaceted skillset can also make him hard to bet on because you never know what aspect of his game will shine. I believe Allen will have a big game throwing the ball on Sunday. 

The quarterback’s passing yards line is set at 226.5, and he has only gone over once in four games. However, the Bills have played three cupcakes this season, and they haven’t been forced to throw the ball downfield. 

The Patriots aren’t a great team, but they’re better than the Jets, Dolphins and Saints. They have a superior defense, and an offense that’s capable of scoring points. 

If Drake Maye and the Patriots offense can make plays down the field, it will force the Bills to throw. Additionally, New England’s passing defense is ranked 26th in the NFL. 

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Dalton Kincaid Over 34.5 Receiving Yards (-110) at bet365

Dalton Kincaid is one of the best tight ends in the NFL. He didn’t play like it last week against the Saints, but he has been fantastic in three of his four games this season. 

The tight end has three touchdowns in four games, and he has consistently been targeted by Allen. Since the Patriots don’t have a great passing defense, I’m leaning into Kincaid’s props in this contest. 

His receiving yards line is listed at 34.5, and he has gone over in three of his four games. Kincaid had his best performance when the Bills were forced to score to keep pace with Miami’s explosive offense. 

Kincaid caught five passes for 66 yards with one touchdown, and I see him posting similar results in this game. 

The Bills' offense is better when they’re getting Kincaid the ball, and this is something they didn’t do last week. Look for Allen to locate Kincaid early on Sunday to get the offense going quickly. 

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Drake Maye Over 225.5 Passing Yards (-110) at bet365

Drake Maye has been the second-best quarterback in the AFC East behind Allen. The quarterback has been inconsistent at times, but he’s the future of New England’s organization. 

Maye started the season slow, but has responded with strong performances against the Steelers and Panthers. Maye is sixth in the NFL in passing yards with 988, and he is averaging 247 per game. 

The quarterback will be forced to throw on Sunday night. The Patriots don’t have a great defense, and they’re facing one of the best offenses in the NFL. 

If Buffalo puts up points, the Patriots will have no choice but to throw the ball down the field. Maye is getting comfortable in Josh McDaniels offense, and we should see the duo have one of their best games of the year because the stakes are raised. 

The Bills have the best passing defense in the NFL, but this is because of their opponents. The Ravens and Dolphins elected to run the ball against Buffalo. 

Neither the Jets nor the Saints have legitimate offenses. The Patriots will be a challenging test for the Bills. They should win the battle, but their zone defense will allow Maye to rack up passing yards.

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More NFL Week 5 Stories

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Tanner Kern

Tanner Kern

Sports Betting Analyst & On-Air Host

Expertise:
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Tanner Kern has been working in the betting industry since 2020. He currently is a social media content creator at DraftKings and contributes to multiple sites in addition to WSN, including Forbes and VSiN. He is also the cohost of the podcast Ride the Line at WSN.
Email: [email protected]
Nationality: American
Education: M.S in Sports Journalism
Favourite Sportsbook: Fanatics Sportsbook
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Experience: 4 years
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