49ers vs. Rams Prop Bets TNF Week 5: Negative Regression Looms Large Over Matthew Stafford

• The San Francisco 49ers and Los Angeles Rams are tied for first in the NFC West standings

• Brock Purdy threw for 309 yards in his first game back from injury

• The Los Angeles Rams' offensive line ranks near dead last in Pass Protection Win Rate

With the San Francisco 49ers and Los Angeles Rams tied for first in the NFC West division standings, Thursday night’s contest between the two brings an added level of excitement as the winner will secure the tiebreaker. Unfortunately for the Rams, negative regression looms large as their struggles in pass protection will force Matthew Stafford to get the ball out of his hands quicker than anticipated.

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Best 49ers vs. Rams Prop Bets in TNF Week 5

Matthew Stafford Under 21.5 Pass Completions (-130) at BetMGM Sportsbook

Since the start of the year, Matthew Stafford has quickly shot up the board for the NFL MVP award, as the Los Angeles Rams quarterback currently ranks above league average in EPA per play. His latest performance against the Indianapolis Colts helped him strengthen his claim for the title as he finished the contest throwing for 375 yards and 3 touchdowns.

An impressive feat, especially when factoring in how poor his offensive line has played as his front five ranks near dead last in Pass Protection Win Rate. With the San Francisco 49ers defense ranked near the top of the board in Pressure Rate while anchoring their linebackers in coverage, Stafford will be forced to throw into low-quality passing lanes which hurts his chances of generating a completion.

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Matthew Stafford Longest Completion Under 36.5 Yards (-116) at Caesars Sportsbook

With the 49ers' defensive line ranked near the top of the board in Def Pass Rush Win Rate and in Efficiency, Stafford will have less time in the pocket to let his plays develop. This will force him to get the ball out of his hands quicker than he would like which further reduces the quality of his throws.

Not only will Stafford have less time in the pocket, but the 49ers pressure also reduces the amount of time the Rams' pass catchers will have in the open field to create separation from their coverage. The 49ers' scheme on defense also gives them extra bodies across the middle to help them keep a body on the Rams' wideouts hips at all times, making it easier to stop them at the point of contact.

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Kyren Williams Anytime Touchdown (-170) at FanDuel Sportsbook

While the Rams' offensive line have struggled to hold their ground in pass sets, they have excelled at opening up holes for their ground game as they rank above league average in Run Block Win Rate. This has helped Kyren Williams get off to a hot start as the Rams' three-down back resides in the top half of the board in Yards Over Expected per Attempt.

With the 49ers' defense struggling to stop the run as their below league average mark in Run Defense Success Rate indicates, Williams will have no issue with generating yards after contact when he gets past the trenches. For some more exposure, escalator bet Williams anytime touchdown scorer prop by placing smaller wagers on his alternate totals.

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Brock Purdy Over 233.5 Passing Yards (-115) at FanDuel Sportsbook

While it wasn’t the most efficient performance, Brock Purdy showed no signs of rust in his first game back from injury as he finished last week’s contest throwing for 309 yards. With his offensive line giving him a clean pocket to operate in, Purdy will be in a great position to put together a dominant outing while throwing into high-quality passing lanes at a consistent rate.

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