Best NHL Prop Bets Today: Back the Avs to Light Up the Scoreboard

With their backs against the wall, expect the Colorado Avalanche front line to ramp up their pressure and consistently attack the Dallas Stars net by exploiting their gaps in coverage. Shortly after their puck drop, the Edmonton Oilers and Los Angeles Kings battle it out in what should be a defensive slugfest as both back lines grade out very well in Expected Goals Against in All Situations and in 5-on-5 Play.

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Dallas Stars vs. Colorado Avalanche - Prop Bets (9:30 PM, EST)

Colorado Avalanche Team Total Over 3.5 (-110) at BetMGM Sportsbook

Once considered one of the better units in the league, the Dallas Stars defense have steadily dropped off over the past few months of play as they currently rank 17th in Expected Goals Against in All Situations with an average of 3.09 Expected Goals Against per game. Their level of play on defense has only declined even more since the start of the playoffs as their back line heads into game six of their series against Colorado averaging 3.49 Expected Goals Against per game.

Even with their pair of goalies ranking near the top of the board in average Goals Against per game, the Dallas goaltenders have struggled to sustain their high level of play throughout the duration of their series as the Stars lack of coverage have allowed the Avs to generate high quality Shots on Goal at a consistent rate. Casey DeSmith has been especially disappointing as the Stars backup goalie is currently averaging over three Goals Against per game in the playoffs after averaging just 2.59 in the regular season.

Expect the Stars lack of defensive production to continue to be on full display against Colorado as the Avs offense have had no issue with generating a high amount of Expected Goals. Even when they were held to just two goals in game five, the Avs still generated an Expected Goal of 3.58. Their versatility makes it tough for Dallas to smother their shots as seven Avs average over 0.25 Expected Goals per game. Back Colorado to continue to pressure the Stars net at a high rate and clear the over on their team total.

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Nathan MacKinnon Anytime Goalscorer (+115) at FanDuel Sportsbook

As for who will do the scoring for Colorado, Nathan MacKinnon has been their most consistent source of offensive production as the reigning Hart Memorial Trophy winner is averaging 0.37 Expected Goals per game. The Avs star center excels at creating high quality shot attempts by weaving the puck through traffic in transition. With the Stars struggling in coverage, expect MacKinnon to continue to relentlessly pressure their net and score his sixth goal of the series.

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Los Angeles Kings vs. Edmonton Oilers - Prop Bets (10:00 PM, EST)

Full Game Alternate Under 5.5 (+125) at BetMGM Sportsbook

After struggling to provide the protection Edmonton needs to help limit the amount of variance in their contests, the Oilers demoted Stuart Skinner and started Calvin Pickard in game five of their series against Los Angeles. Their change at goalie paid immediate dividends as Pickard held the Kings to just one goal in a 3-1 victory. With his back line ranking second overall in Expected Goals Against in All Situations, Pickard receives plenty of support from his defense to help sustain his high level of play.

On the other side of the ice, the Los Angeles Kings defense have been in a tier of their own this year as their back line leads the league in Expected Goals Against in All Situations. Their coverage helped Darcy Kuemper put together a dominant 2024-25 regular season campaign as the Vezina Trophy contender averaged just 2.02 Goals Against per game and a .922 Save Percentage. For some more exposure, escalator bet the full game under by sprinkling smaller wagers on the alternate totals.

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Adrian Kempe Under 3.5 Shots on Goal (-185) at BetMGM Sportsbook

After generating eight Shots on Goal in game two of their series, Adrian Kempe has struggled to carry over his momentum as he is averaging just three per game since. With the Kings offense ranking 19th in Expected Goals For in All Situations, their lack of production makes it hard for Kempe to pressure their net as the Oilers can sit back in coverage and lessen the quality of their shooting lanes. Should the total on Kempe’s Shots on Goal drop down to 2.5 across the board, then pass on this prop.

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