With the New York Islanders severely underwhelming in coverage, the Edmonton Oilers offense will have a great opportunity to consistently pressure their net and clear the over on their team total. Shortly after their puck drop, we turn our attention towards the Dallas Stars as positive regression looms large over their defense with the Vancouver Canucks front line struggling to generate high quality Shots on Goal.
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It has been an abysmal start to the year for Ilya Sorokin as the Vezina Trophy contender is currently 0-3 while averaging 4.18 Goals Against per game and a .854 Save Percentage. The lack of coverage he receives from his back line is in large part to blame as the Islanders defense ranks near dead last in Expected Goals Against in All Situations with an average of 4.09 Expected Goals Against per game.
Unfortunately for Sorokin, his struggles in net are poised to persist as the Islanders face off against the Edmonton Oilers who rank top-10 in Expected Goals For in All Situations and in 5-on-5 Play. With six players averaging over 0.25 Expected Goals per game, the Oilers versatility will have the Islanders back line stretched out thin which opens up wider shooting lanes for their offense to exploit. Should the Oilers team total climb up to 3.5, then reduce the size of your wager.
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Even though Connor McDavid has yet to score, the three time Hart Memorial Trophy winner has still excelled at pressuring the net as he is currently averaging 0.54 Expected Goals and 3.33 Shots on Goal per game. His linemate Leon Draisaitl has played a major role in his success as opposing defenses are forced to shade their coverage towards him which frees up more space for McDavid. For some more exposure, escalator bet McDavid’s Shots on Goal prop by placing smaller wagers on his alternate overs.
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After failing to play at a competitive level on defense at the end of last year, the Dallas Stars have carried over their struggles into this season as their back line ranks 31st in Expected Goals Against in All Situations. A stunning performance from the Stanley Cup contenders as the Stars were projected to be one of the more well rounded units in the league.
In Thursday night’s contest against Vancouver, the Stars back line will have a great opportunity to round back into form as they face off against a Canucks offense who ranks near dead last in Expected Goals For in All Situations with an average of 2.38 Expected Goals per game. With their defense lessening the amount of negative variance in the contest by neutralizing the Canucks offense, the Stars chances of pulling away on the scoreboard to help cover the puck line drastically increases.
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Not only do the Ottawa Senators already struggle with generating high quality Shots on Goal as their below league average mark in Expected Goals For indicates, but they will be playing on the second half of a back-to-back after losing to the Buffalo Sabres on Wednesday night. With tired legs potentially slowing down their offense, the Seattle Kraken will have no issue with staying in front of the puck to help lessen the quality of their shot attempts.
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