With the New York Rangers back line struggling in coverage, the Carolina Hurricanes have a great opportunity to light up the scoreboard as their front line excels at pressuring the net. At the same time as their puck drop, we turn our attention to the Ottawa Senators as positive regression looms large over Linus Ullmark in a matchup against the Philadelphia Flyers who generate Shots on Goal at a low rate.
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After playing at a very high level on offense last year, the Carolina Hurricanes have been able to carry over their success into this season as the Stanley Cup contenders rank second in Expected Goals For in All Situations. The production they receive from their top-2 lines has played a major role in their success as four players average more than 0.30 Expected Goals per game.
In a favorable matchup against the New York Rangers, expect the Hurricanes to build on their momentum as they face off against a back line who resides near the bottom of the board in Expected Goals Against in All Situations with an average of 3.30 Expected Goals Against per game. Especially with Jonathan Quick expected to get the start in net as the Rangers goalie is averaging 3.22 Goals Against per game and a .883 Save Percentage.
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Since the start of the regular season, Seth Jarvis has been able to pressure the net at a very high rate as the Hurricanes forward is averaging 0.42 Expected Goals and 3.19 Shots on Goal per game. WIth the Rangers back line struggling to protect their net, expect Jarvis to continue to create high quality scoring opportunities in front of the crease and score his 26th goal of the season.
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It has been a turbulent past few weeks of play for the Philadelphia Flyers as they are 3-5-2 in their last 10 games, dropping them eight points back from Boston for the last spot in the playoffs. Their lack of production on offense brings in a high amount of variance into their contests, fielding a front line who ranks 28th in Expected Goals For in All Situations while no one on their active roster averages more than 3.00 Shots on Goal per game.
Heading into Thursday night, expect the Flyers struggles on offense to continue to persist as they face off against the Ottawa Senators who lead the league in Expected Goals Against in 5-on-5 Play. With the Senators back line smothering the Flyers Shots on Goal, Linus Ullmark will be able to consistently wall them off and hold them under their team total as he averages just 2.86 Goals Against per game. For some more exposure, escalator bet the Flyers team total by placing smaller wagers on their alternate unders.
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With Alexander Ovechkin in the twilight years of his career, Tom Wilson has been able to take advantage of his higher usage rate as the Washington Capitals forward is averaging 0.38 Expected Goals per game. In a matchup against the Nashville Predators who struggle to stay in front of the puck as their below league average mark in Expected Goals Against From High Danger Shots indicates, Wilson will be able to generate a higher volume of Shots on Goal which increases his chances of scoring.
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