La Liga 2020/21 Top Four Prediction, Odds and Picks

Top Four

  • Atletico Madrid, Real Madrid and Barcelona are close to sealing their spots in the top four
  • Sevilla currently hold a six-point advantage in the race for the final qualification place
  • Real Betis and Villarreal are outsiders, but Real Sociedad could yet make it

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La Liga Top Four Odds

To Finish in the Top Four Odds
Atletico Madrid N/A
Barcelona N/A
Real Madrid -10000
Sevilla -715
Real Sociedad +400
Villarreal +2800
Real Betis +3300
Athletic Club +50000
Granada +75000
Levante +75000

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La Liga Top four Predictions and Picks

Atletico Madrid are favorites to finish on top of the pile this season – check out our La Liga title preview to read our assessment of their chances of beating Barcelona and Real Madrid to the crown. It looks to be a three-horse race in the Spanish top tier, and each contender is virtually guaranteed a top-four finish already.

Sevilla are the frontrunners to join the trio in the Champions League. They hold a six-point cushion above Real Sociedad, who are themselves well clear of Villarreal and Real Betis. There is not much value to be had in backing Sevilla in a standalone bet, though, so consider combining it with a selection from our article on the title or the race to avoid relegation.

How to Watch La Liga

La Liga Information
What 2020/21 La Liga season
Where Spain
When Now – 23 May 2021
How to Watch beIN Sports

Sevilla’s Fate Is in Their Own Hands After a Consistent Campaign

Sevilla finished fourth last season and also won the Europa League, which has been a common occurrence in recent times. Indeed, last season’s triumph was the fourth time they have lifted the trophy in the last seven years. During that period they have often appeared to be too good for the Europa League, but not quite of the required level to go deep in the Champions League.

Teams who finish third in their Champions League group drop into the Europa League ahead of the knockout phase. So, despite their considerable success in the continent’s junior tournament over the last few years, Sevilla will hope to avoid it completely next term. Their first step towards doing so is finishing fourth, and with a six-point lead and a game in hand over Real Sociedad, they are in a terrific position to realize that goal.

Julen Lopetegui is doing a fine job of rebuilding his reputation after the twin disappointments of Spain and Real Madrid. The 54-year-old is an excellent coach who has created a very good team at the Ramon Sanchez Pizjuan, and Sevilla supporters might not have given up hope of a top-three finish this term. Lopetegui’s side will be only two points behind both Barcelona and Real Madrid if they win their outstanding match, and they have a better defensive record than Spain’s two giants.

Editor’s Picks

Real Sociedad Started Brightly but Have Faded in Recent Times

Real Sociedad looked to be in store for a fantastic season back in the fall, but it now seems like a top-four finish will be beyond them. La Real would not have been overly disappointed with ending the campaign in fifth or sixth before a ball had been kicked, but that emotion may be widespread among the club’s supporters given that Imanol Alguacil’s team have thrown away a position of strength.

Real Sociedad were top of the league in the middle of December. It was always going to be difficult to maintain that position, but it is cause for concern that they have only won three of their last 15 matches in La Liga. Real Sociedad have picked up of late and are now on a six-game unbeaten run, but they have probably given themselves too much to do in the race for the top four.

In some ways odds of +400 look too short given how difficult it would be for Alguacil’s side to climb above Sevilla, who will move nine points clear if they win their game in hand. Qualifying for the Champions League will be extremely difficult for Real Sociedad at this point.

Villarreal and Real Betis Will Be Focused on the Europa League

Even further back in the table are Real Betis and Villarreal. The latter looked to be a part of the top-four conversation a few weeks back, but a dismal run of form has seen them slide down the standings. Since a 4-0 thrashing of Celta Vigo on January 8 kept them in fourth place, Villarreal have failed to win a single game. Five ties and two losses mean the Yellow Submarine are now fighting for a Europa League spot, and they will need to improve their form fast if they are to fulfill that adjusted ambition.

Real Betis, who occupy the final Europa League qualification place with 13 rounds of fixtures remaining, are two points better off than Villarreal. Curiously, they have a goal difference of -5, which suggests they are a little fortunate to be sitting so high in the table. Betis may well secure a spot in Europe’s secondary competition, but the Champions League is little more than a pipe dream for the time being.

Odds of +50000 on Athletic Bilbao finishing in the top four shows the size of the task confronting them. In truth, Athletic is not even targeting a place in the Champions League, with it being near-impossible for the Basque side to make up an 18-point deficit at this stage of the season. Marcelino’s men, who this month booked their spot in the Copa del Rey final for the second year running, have lost more games than they have won in La Liga, and are currently behind Granada and Levante in the table. Those two teams are even longer shots to finish in the top four, according to DraftKings Sportsbook.

Sevilla are the clear favorites in this race, so consider a combination bet on Lopetegui’s side finishing fourth alongside a La Liga selection in another futures market.

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Greg Lea

Expert on Soccer

Greg Lea is a freelance soccer journalist from London. He is the former editor of The Set Pieces, and has contributed to the Guardian, FourFourTwo, and ESPN. A Crystal Palace fan, he is a long-time subscriber to the belief that it's the taking part that counts.

Email: [email protected]