World Series Game Three: Phillies Can Take Series Lead with a Win at Home

• The Philadelphia Phillies won Game One 6-5 in ten innings. 
• The Houston Astros won Game Two 5-2.
• The Astros were 2-1 against the Phillies this season.

Houston Astros vs Philadelphia Phillies Odds

Odds Taken from DraftKings Sportsbook 

Houston Astros vs Philadelphia Phillies Picks

Philadelphia Phillies beat Houston Astros 5-3

Phillies cover the spread.

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Moneyline Analysis

The 2022 World Series will head to Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia for Game Three. 

The Astros have been the favorites to win all three games but lost Game One 6-5 in extra innings. 

Houston proved the oddsmakers right in Game Two and won 5-2. Zach Wheeler got the start for Philadelphia and played uncharacteristically poorly. 

Wheeler dominated in his first two Playoff starts but could not do much correctly in Game Two. He gave up a leadoff double to Jose Altuve, and the Astros had a 3-0 lead after the first inning. 

Wheeler pitched well for the second, third, and fourth innings but ran into some trouble in the fifth. Yordan Alvarez made his way on base on a fielder’s choice, and Alex Bregman slammed a 2-0 pitch over the left field fence to give the Astros a 5-0 lead. I cannot solely blame the Phillies' loss on Zach Wheeler. Their lineup struggled mightily at the plate and only scored two runs late in the game.

The Astros have been rolling in these last two games. Houston has scored ten combined runs and seen many hitters step up. I do not need to say much more. If the Astros lineup keeps hitting this well, they will be a problem for the Phillies’ pitchers. 

Lance McCullers Jr. is getting the nod for the Astros. McCullers only started eight games this season but is performing very well in the Playoffs. The righty has started two games and has only given up three earned runs over 11 innings pitched. Those numbers speak for themselves. McCullers may give up two or three runs, but no more than that.

As I have mentioned many times before, the Phillies have a lot of offensive weapons. 

They just need those offensive weapons to show up. In Game One, Philadephia saw productive performances from Kyle Schwarber, Rhys Hoskins, Bryce Harper, Nick Castellanos, Alec Bohm, Brandon Marsh, and (especially) J.T. Realmuto. However, Game Two was a different story. Nick Castellanos and Alec Bohm hit well, but Bryce Harper went 0-4, and Kyle Schwarber, Rhys Hoskins, and J.T. Realmuto each had one hit but no RBIs or runs. 

I cannot stress this enough. The Phils’ need a strong all-around performance and their offense to hit well with runners in scoring position. 

Ranger Suarez is taking the hill for the Phillies tonight. Suarez had a strong regular season and has been a killer in the Playoffs. He has started two games and made two appearances out of the bullpen. In that time, he has only given up two earned runs. The southpaw comes into this game with a 1.86 ERA these Playoffs.

 However, Suarez will have his toughest postseason matchup against the Astros tonight. I am a big fan of Suarez and believe in what he can do, but he will give up a couple of runs tonight. The Astros lineup is too good not to score off Suarez.

The Phillies have the home crowd side on their side, which will be enough to push to victory.

Over/Under Analysis

The over/under is placed at eight runs. Unfortunately, I cannot recommend betting on the over or under since I believe eight runs will be scored.

Like in Games One and Two, we have another excellent pitching matchup. However, both teams have electric offenses, so we will see some scoring.

On paper, the Astros have a better lineup. But they were at home for Games One and Two and will not have the home crowd on their side in Game Three.

Instead, they have to handle an intense Phillies crowd that will make life more difficult for them at the plate. In addition, the ‘Stros have been a little worse on the road in the Playoffs. Houston is averaging almost five runs at Minute Maid Park but only four runs a game away from Minute Maid Park. That may not sound like a large difference, but that one can decide the over or under. 

I expect the Astros to score three runs today. Two of those runs will come against Ranger Suarez. It is hard to say exactly how long Suarez will pitch today, but I expect him to give up two runs anyways. Whatever the case may be, the Astros will end with three runs.

The Phillies' offense did not show up in Game Two but has been quite solid throughout the Playoffs. 

They are averaging exactly five runs, and I expect them to continue that trend today. They will have the home crowd on their side for the first time in this series, and their lineup has not scored less than five runs consecutively this Postseason. Simply put, Philadelphia is due for another stronger offensive showing and will score five runs today.

Head-to-Head: Philadelphia Phillies vs Houston Astros

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