Best MLB Home Run Props Today: Finding Value in Today’s Three Games

While Thursday’s slate of games only has three matchups, there are some great home run prop bets available. With several big bats facing struggling starters, we expect the small schedule to provide big action. Below, we’ll share the three home run props we love.

For more daily MLB coverage, check our selection of the Best NRFI Bets Today.

We’ll be using odds from Caesars Sportsbook for all of our home run props. If you’d like to give Caesars a try, use promo code WSNDYW to claim a “Bet $1, Double Your Winnings” offer.

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Home Run Picks for Thursday, July 31

Cody Bellinger Anytime Home Run (+350) at Caesars Sportsbook

The former MVP has been one of the hottest hitters in July. He is batting .322 with eight home runs and 18 RBIs, and there is plenty of reason to believe he’ll close the month with another home run today.

Bellinger’s play at home this season gives us confidence to lock this wager in. He’s batting .308 with a .943 OPS, and has hit 14 of his 20 home runs. He has two long balls during the team’s current home stand, including one against the Rays on Tuesday. 

Bellinger’s season stats don’t tell the full story of his 2025 campaign. A brutal April saw him post a .182 average and .588 OPS. However, he has posted an average above .300 and an OPS above .850 in every other month. That shows he is seeing the ball well after a down 2024 season, making us believe his impressive play won’t slow down any time soon.

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Elly De La Cruz Anytime Home Run (+255) at Caesars Sportsbook

The Reds' young superstar is having another impressive season, but he is still looking for his first home run of July. He has been getting on base, with a .294 average and .388 OBP, but he hasn’t been able to send any over the outfield wall.

De La Cruz is due to break his home run drought, and we believe the stage is set for him to do so tonight. His .904 OPS at home shows he is playing his best baseball in Great American Ballpark this season. That, combined with his hot bat, gives us confidence to back the 23-year-old today.

The other reason we love this bet is that the Braves will have Carlos Carrasco (2-2, 5.91 ERA, 1.53 WHIP) on the mound. He’ll be making his first start as a Brave after the team traded the Yankees for him. New York had sent him down to the minors in May after the 38-year-old got off to a rocky start.

Carrasco’s 2025 struggles aren’t new, as the veteran has posted an ERA of 5.60 or higher in three of his last four seasons. While he looked sharper in Triple-A this year, it won’t translate to the big leagues tonight.

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Cal Raleigh Anytime Home Run (+220) at Caesars Sportsbook

Picking Raleigh to go deep has been one of the safest bets in baseball this season. The breakout star leads the league with 41 home runs and has broken out of a July slump over the last week. While his numbers at home have been lower, he still owns an impressive .920 OPS with 18 of his 41 home runs.

Raleigh’s hot bat will continue to thrive if Josh Naylor is now hitting behind him. His addition bolsters this lineup and prevents pitchers from working around the MVP candidate. That is making a big difference, especially against young starters like they’ll face tonight.

Kumar Rocker (4-4, 5.73 ERA, 1.44 WHIP) will be on the mound to start tonight’s game for Texas. The 25-year-old has been erratic in 2025 thanks to struggles with his control. It's resulted in a lot of walks and is giving opponents plenty of chances to go deep.

Rocker was fantastic against the Mariners at the end of June, but this team has improved dramatically since then. That game also came at home, where he is 3-0 with a 2.43 ERA. Now he’ll be on the road, where he is 1-4 with a 9.91 ERA on the season.

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