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Andy’s Frozen Custard 300 Predictions: Cole Custer Looks for First 2024 Victory

Written by: Reid Spencer
Updated April 12, 2024
10 min read
  • It pays to qualify up front for a NASCAR Xfinity race at Texas Motor Speedway.

  • Here are the cases against Fort Worth favorites Chandler Smith and Justin Allgaier.

  • Cole Custer is the only former Texas winner in the field for Saturday’s race.

Andy’s Frozen Custard 300 Betting Odds

Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook. Click the odds in the table below and get $150 in bonus bets instantly at DraftKings.

DriverOdds
Chandler Smith+320
BET HERE
Justin Allgaier+330
BET HERE
Cole Custer+650
BET HERE
Austin Hill+650
BET HERE
Ryan Truex+850
BET HERE
Riley Herbst+1200
BET HERE
Sheldon Creed+1400
BET HERE
Sam Mayer+1400
BET HERE
Sammy Smith+1800
BET HERE
AJ Allmendinger+1800
BET HERE
Jesse Love+2000
BET HERE

Our Picks for the Andy’s Frozen Custard 300

Andys Frozen Custard 300 Predictions

Andy’s Frozen Custard 300 Predictions

It Pays to Qualify Up Front for a NASCAR Xfinity Race at Texas

Pay close attention to Friday afternoon’s time trials for the Andy’s Frozen Custard 300 at Texas Motor Speedway.

You may want to delay your bets until you see the results of qualifying—or at least remain open to possible hedges afterward.

Here’s the rationale: in the last 23 NASCAR Xfinity Series races at Texas Motor Speedway, the winner has come from a top-six starting spot 19 times and from a top-three starting spot 15 times.

Admittedly, all four wins from outside the top six have come since the 1.5-mile track was repaved and reconfigured in 2017, but no winner has come from outside the top 14 since Kyle Busch won from 31st in 2008.

We put a lot of stock in qualifying because it tends to predict who will also have speed in race trim.

The Cases Against Favorites Chandler Smith and Justin Allgaier

Oddsmakers seem enchanted with the success of Chandler Smith, with veteran Justin Allgaier not far behind.

Smith as the favorite at DraftKings is priced at +320. Allgaier is a close second choice from DraftKings at +330.

We don’t think either driver is a particularly good bet. In his only Xfinity Series start at Texas, Smith ran fourth last year but did not lead a lap. Though he already has two victories to his credit this season, Smith’s record suggests he is stronger at short tracks than he is at intermediate speedways such as Texas.

In contrast, Allgaier has raced 26 times at Texas without a win, and he has just six top-five finishes to show for his efforts. We think he’s a risky bet at short odds.

Instead, we favor Smith’s Joe Gibbs Racing teammate, Taylor Gray, to finish in the top three at +650 via DraftKings. Gray has two career Xfinity starts, both this year, with a best result of third at Richmond.

We believe he will continue to overachieve.

Cole Custer Looks to Monopolize Success at Texas Motor Speedway

Texas Motor Speedway is a track that’s ideal for Cole Custer, the defending NASCAR Xfinity Series champion.

First and foremost, Custer is the only driver in the field for Saturday’s race who has scored a victory at the 1.5-mile intermediate track. That was in the fall of 2018 when he held off Tyler Reddick by 0.162 seconds.

In seven starts in Cowtown, Custer has four top fives and six top 10s, with the only blemish coming in 2019 when he was eliminated in a crash after 132 of 200 laps.

Custer’s average starting spot at Texas is 5.0. As noted above, a qualifying position can be extremely important, and Custer is dependable in time trials.

Though Custer hasn’t won so far this season, he comes to Texas on a streak of five straight top-10 results, and he has the speed to get to Victory Lane.

We think the driver of the No. 00 Stewart Haas Racing Ford is a good bet to remain the only driver in the field who has won at Texas. He's listed at +650 via DraftKings Sportsbook.

How to Watch the Andy’s Frozen Custard 300

  • Race: Andy’s Frozen Custard 300 NASCAR Xfinity Series race

  • Location: Texas Motor Speedway

  • Time: Saturday, April 13, 1:30 p.m. ET

  • How to Watch: FS1

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AUTHOR

Reid Spencer

218 Articles

Award-winning motorsports writer Reid Spencer has served as lead writer for the NASCAR Wire Service for 16 years, having also spent a four-year stint as NASCAR columnist and beat writer for Sporting News. He is currently serving as president of the National Motorsports Press Association. Email: [email protected]

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