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Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook.
Qualifying isn’t always an accurate indicator of where a driver might finish in a race, but in terms of NASCAR Xfinity Series events at Texas Motor Speedway, it certainly is.
In the past 23 races at the 1.5-mile tracks, 20 winners have come from the top six on the starting grid. Four drivers have won from the pole in that span and six from the second starting position, including the last two—Tyler Reddick and Noah Gragson.
So it might be prudent to wait and see which drivers qualify in the top six—and particularly on the front row—before picking the winner.
That, unfortunately, is not a luxury we can afford, but we gave you Justin Allgaier to win at Bristol before time trials last week, and that’s exactly what he did, charging from 13th to win after a stop for four fresh tires.
The winner of Saturday’s race at Texas Motor Speedway will be feted with flames, confetti, and a cowboy hat in Victory Lane.
That celebration is familiar to John Hunter Nemechek, who boasts a victory and three other top-10 finishes in five starts at Texas Motor Speedway.
Nemechek is the favorite to win this week at +200 via DraftKings Sportsbook. Though Joe Gibbs Racing Toyotas have won 10 of the last 17 Xfinity Series races at Texas, we can’t back Nemechek at such short odds.
In fact, since Justin Allgaier currently is holding the hot hand, we’re picking him to beat Nemechek head-to-head at +110 via DraftKings. Allgaier has never won at Texas, but he has posted 13 top 10s in 25 starts there.
Cole Custer and John Hunter Nemechek have remarkably similar records at Texas Motor Speedway. In fact, they’re the only two drivers in the field for Saturday’s race who have won at the track.
Nemechek has three top fives in five starts at the 1.5-mile oval. Custer has four top fives in six races and has never started outside the top 10.
The primary difference is that Custer—thanks to a stint in NASCAR’s Cup division—hasn’t raced at Texas since 2019, but we don’t consider that a significant liability.
And since DraftKings is offering Custer at +750 versus Nemechek at +200, we’ll take the driver with significantly longer odds.
Given Custer’s record in qualifying, you might want to ignore our advice and bet on him before time trials, given that his odds are likely to shorten.
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Award-winning motorsports writer Reid Spencer has served as lead writer for the NASCAR Wire Service for 16 years, having also spent a four-year stint as NASCAR columnist and beat writer for Sporting News. He is currently serving as president of the National Motorsports Press Association. Email: [email protected]More info on Reid Spencer
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