Daytona 500 Predictions: Season Opener Presents a Marvelous Opportunity for Brad Keselowski

• Season opener presents a marvelous opportunity for Brad Keselowski.
• Can Hendrick Motorsports convert qualifying prowess into victory?
• Denny Hamlin looks to reassert mastery in the Great American Race.

Daytona 500 Betting Odds

Odds taken from DraftKings Sportsbook.

Our Picks for the Daytona 500

• Denny Hamlin to win the race at +1300 
• Christopher Bell to finishing in the top three at +800 and top five at +330

Daytona 500 Predictions

A Marvelous Opportunity for Owner/Driver Brad Keselowski

All it takes is a glance at the odds to understand what a crapshoot the Daytona 500 is.

At DraftKings Sportsbook, the four favorites—Ryan Blaney, Kyle Larson, Denny Hamlin and Chase Elliott - a testament to the wide-open nature of the competition.

How does the Daytona 500 differ from a typical NASCAR race? First and foremost, the rules package on superspeedways promotes tight side-by-side racing in large packs. The drivers who avoid the inevitable multicar wrecks are left to fight for victory at the end of the race.

That said, certain drivers seem to have a knack for dodging trouble and winning more than their fair share of superspeedway races. One such driver is Brad Keselowski, who has won six times at Daytona’s sister track, Talladega Superspeedway, most among active drivers.

Keselowski’s record at Daytona, on the other hand, is a boom-or-bust situation. He has one victory (in the summer race) in 27 starts and just six top 10s.

But last year, in his first season as an owner/driver for Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing, the driver of the No. 6 Ford won his Duel 150 qualifying race.

Though Bad Brad is not our top pick to win the Daytona at +1800 via DraftKings, he’s a good choice if you’re spreading your action across a handful of contenders.

We’re Still Waiting for Hendrick Drivers to Turn Poles into Wins

Daytona 500 qualifying day has been the all-but-exclusive province of Hendrick Motorsports in recent years. Race day? Not so much.

Hendrick drivers have won seven of the last eight pole positions for the Great American Race. The car of the lone exception (Ricky Stenhouse Jr. in 2020) was powered by a Hendrick engine. Chevrolet drivers have won the last 10 Daytona 500 poles, dating to Danica Patrick in 2013.

When NASCAR Cup Series drivers line up for qualifying on Wednesday night, Alex Bowman will be attempting to earn a front-row starting position for the sixth straight year. Hendrick teammate Kyle Larson will be trying for his second straight Daytona 500 pole.

Problem is, only one Chevrolet driver has gone to Victory Lane in the last eight editions of NASCAR’s most prestigious event, and that was Richard Childress Racing driver Austin Dillon in 2018.

In fact, no Daytona 500 pole winner has gone on to win the race since Dale Jarrett accomplished the feat in 2000.

Once again on Wednesday night, Alex Bowman won the pole for the Great American Race, the third of his career. For the sixth straight Daytona 500, Bowman will start from the front row, a NASCAR record.

Larson qualified second and will start on the outside of the front row. William Byron was third fastest in single-car qualifying.

So avoid the Hendrick drivers like the plague. If form holds, none will win on Sunday.

Denny Hamlin Looks to Win Daytona 500 for the Fourth Time

This analysis will be short and sweet, as it should be. As noted above, because of the close-quarters racing and inevitable massive wrecks, the Daytona 500 is much less predictable than the typical NASCAR race.

So it makes sense to go with a driver who has enjoyed repeated success in the Great American Race.

Denny Hamlin has won the Daytona 500 three times in the last seven years. No other active driver has won the race more than once.

Only two drivers in history have won the race more than three times—Cale Yarborough with four victories and Richard Petty with a record seven.

Hamlin has defied the odds, and that suggests a penchant for superspeedway racing that goes beyond the abilities of other drivers.

All else being equal, and the odds being favorable, that’s why we’re going with Hamlin to win the Daytona 500 again this year at +1300 via DraftKings.

Don’t be fooled by Hamlin’s 18th-place starting position. His car will perform at its best on race day.

How to Watch the Daytona 500

• What: Daytona 500 NASCAR Cup Series Race
• Where: Daytona International Speedway
• When: Sunday, February 19, 2:30 p.m. ET
• How to Watch: FOX