Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s odds to win the OPOY award continues to grow
The Chicago Bears have won the NFC North division title
The San Francisco 49ers rank near dead last in Pass Rush Win Rate
Even with a new face under center, Jaxon Smith-Njigba has built a strong case for winning the Offensive Player of the Year award as the Seattle Seahawks wide receiver has been able to play at a very high level on a weekly basis. With the number one overall seed in the NFC on the line, expect Sam Darnold to continue to look towards JSN’s way while he exploits the San Francisco’s 49ers gaps in coverage.
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Since the start of the regular season, Jaxon Smith-Njigba has arguably been the best wide receiver in the league as the Seattle Seahawks superstar is listed as the betting favorite to win the Offensive Player of the Year award. His production near the goal line has helped him pull away from the rest of the field as JSN leads the team in Red Zone Targets while converting over half of his Receptions into Touchdowns.
In a NFC West divisional matchup against San Francisco, JSN will have a great opportunity to score as he faces off against a 49ers defense who ranks near dead last in Def DVOA and in Pass Rush Win Rate. With more time in his routes to break away from their coverage, expect JSN to create a high quality passing lane for Sam Darnold to throw to and haul in his 11th touchdown of the season.
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After entering the year listed as the betting favorite to win the Super Bowl, the Detroit Lions have severely underperformed as they have been eliminated from playoff contention. Their lack of production on defense held them back from being a competitive unit as the Lions currently rank below league average in Def EPA and in Run Defense Line Yards.
While the Lions have struggled, the Chicago Bears have thrived as they locked up the NFC North division title after Green Bay lost to Baltimore in week 17. With the Lions defense struggling to stop opposing offenses from getting into scoring position as their low mark in Def EPA indicates, D’Andre Swift will be able to generate a higher volume of Red Zone Carries which increases his chances of scoring.
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On the other side of the field, the Lions offense will be able to match the Bears output as they face off against a defense who resides near the bottom of the board in Pass Rush PFF Grade. With minimal pressure crashing down on him, Jared Goff will be able to operate in a clean pocket which will improve the quality of his throws and increase his chances of connecting with Amon-Ra St. Brown in the end zone.
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After a slow start to the year, Derrick Henry has started to get into a groove as the Baltimore Ravens running back ranks above league average in Yards Over Expected per Attempt. Baltimore’s offensive line has played a major role in his success this season by consistently opening up high quality running lanes in the trenches as the Ravens front five ranks top-10 in Run Block Set Grade.
Heading into Sunday night, Henry will be able to build on his momentum as he faces off against a Pittsburgh Steelers front seven who ranks 27th in Run Defense Win Rate. For some more exposure, escalator bet Henry’s Anytime Touchdown scorer prop by placing smaller wagers on his alternate totals at the best available odds across multiple sportsbooks.
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