Kyren Williams scored his second rushing touchdown of the season in week six
The Los Angeles Rams' Puka Nacua is listed as questionable on their injury report
The Jacksonville Jaguars' defense ranks below league average in Run Defense Win Rate
After punching one in for six against the Baltimore Ravens, Kyren Williams will have a great opportunity to find the back of the end zone again this weekend as he faces off against the Jacksonville Jaguars who struggle to stop the run. Especially if Puka Nacua is unable to give it a go as the Rams will lean heavier on the run to help mask his loss of production.
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Since the start of the regular season, Kyren Williams has played at a very high level as the Los Angeles Rams three down back ranks above league average in Yards Over Expected per Attempt. Williams' offensive line has played a major role in his ability to get to the second level of the defense as the Rams front five leads the league in Run Block PFF Grade.
Williams will have a great opportunity to put together a dominant performance in week seven as he faces off against a Jacksonville Jaguars defense who ranks 24th in Run Defense Win Rate. If Puka Nacua sits out, Williams may also see an increase in his total number of Red Zone Carries as the Jags defense will shade their coverage towards Davante Adams who has been the focal point of their offense when inside the 20.
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After eating away at Isaiah Pacheco’s usage rate the first few weeks of the season, the script was flipped last Sunday as Kareem Hunt received just six carries to his 12. A stunning development as Hunt has been the more efficient back for the Kansas City Chiefs as he comfortably leads Pacheco in Yards Over Expected per Attempt.
While his usage rate has dipped in the middle of the field, Hunt is still their go-to option when in scoring position as he leads the team in total Red Zone Carries. In their AFC West divisional matchup against the Las Vegas Raiders, expect Hunt to continue to thrive near the goal line as they face off against a front seven who ranks below league average in Run Defense PFF Grade.
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New England’s resurgence on offense has helped them get off to a strong start to the season as the Patriots are currently in first place in the AFC East. Drake Maye has helped turn them into a competitive unit as the Patriots quarterback ranks top-3 in Quarterback EPA per Play.
More impressive yet, Maye has also been effective on the ground as he currently averages 3.5 Yards per Carry while converting 33% of his Red Zone Attempts into touchdowns. With the Tennessee Titans generating pressure at the second-lowest rate in the league, Maye will have plenty of room to work with in scrambling situations which increases his chances of scoring.
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Positive regression looms large over Troy Franklin as the Denver Broncos rookie continues to generate Red Zone Targets at a high rate but has only scored once this season. As of writing, Franklin leads the team with seven targets while Courtland Sutton is in second with four.
With the New York Giants' defense struggling in coverage when in the shortened field as their below league average mark in Def EPA indicates, Franklin will be in a favorable position to generate another heavy volume of Targets. For some more exposure, escalator bet Franklin’s anytime touchdown scorer prop by placing smaller wagers on his alternate totals.
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