Cincinnati’s defense gave up over 500 yards of offense to the New York Jets last week
Rome Odunze leads the Chicago Bears pass catchers in total Red Zone Targets
The Bengals' defense currently ranks 29th overall in Def EPA and 32nd in Def DVOA
After failing to throw for a touchdown in last week’s contest against Baltimore, Caleb Williams has a great opportunity to round back into form against Cincinnati who severely underwhelms on defense. This will lead to an uptick in Rome Odunze’s total number of Red Zone Targets as the Bengals' lack of defensive production will allow the Bears to get into scoring position at a higher rate.
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After struggling to find his footing in his rookie year, Caleb Williams has continued to underperform in his sophomore season as the Chicago Bears quarterback currently ranks below league average in Quarterback EPA per play. His lack of efficiency hurts the Bears' ability to drive down the field as Williams also resides in the bottom half of the board in Turnover Worthy Play Percentage.
Fortunately for Williams, he will have a great opportunity to build some momentum as he faces off against a Cincinnati defense who ranks below league average in Def DVOA, EPA, and in Pass Rush Win Rate. This will allow the Bears to get into scoring position at a more consistent rate which will increase Rome Odunze’s chances of scoring as he currently leads the team in total Red Zone Targets.
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Not only have the Bengals' secondary underwhelmed in coverage, but their front seven has also failed to stuff the run as they had into week nine ranked below league average in Run Defense Win Rate. Their low Blitz Rate has played a major role in their struggles as their lack of bodies at the line of scrimmage makes it easier for opposing running backs to reach the second level of their defense.
With D’Andre Swift excelling at generating yards after contact as his high mark in Yards Over Expected per Rush Attempt indicates, expect the Bears running back to continue to find success when in scoring position. For some more exposure, escalator bet Swift’s anytime touchdown scorer prop by placing smaller wagers on his alternate totals at the best available odds across multiple sportsbooks.
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With Patrick Mahomes starting to play as a favorite for NFL MVP award, the Kansas City Chiefs offense have been able to move the ball down the field at a more consistent rate. Not only has Mahomes been able to pick apart opposing secondaries through the air, but the Chiefs' ground game have also started to give them the production they need to be a well-rounded unit.
In a potential AFC Championship preview against Buffalo, Kareem Hunt will be in a favorable position to stay ahead of the sticks as he faces off against a Bills front seven who ranks near dead last in Run Defense PFF Grade. With Isaiah Pacheco still receiving half of the total number of carries when inside the red zone, split your wager and place half of it on him to score as well.
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With Puka Nacua potentially making his return from injury, Kyren Williams will have more room to work with when he gets to the second level of the defense, as the New Orleans Saints secondary will be stretched out in coverage trying to cover their deep group of pass catchers. Williams also possesses a high usage rate in pass sets as he is currently second on the team in total number of Red Zone Targets.
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