Both the Chiefs and Ravens are off to surprising 1-2 starts this season.
Patrick Mahomes has yet to throw multiple touchdown passes in a game this season.
Derrick Henry has seven touchdowns in five career games against the Chiefs, including three multi-touchdown games.
The best game on the Week 4 NFL schedule could be the clash between the Kansas City Chiefs and Baltimore Ravens. For the last half-dozen years, every game between these teams has been an epic affair. This time around, there is a lot at stake with both teams off to a 1-2 start. That means the loser of this week’s game will drop to 1-3, putting both the Ravens and Chiefs in a state of desperation heading into Week 4. Of course, any time Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson play on the same field, it’s a special occasion.
Despite Baltimore’s 1-2 start, Jackson is among the leading NFL MVP favorites, whereas Mahomes has fallen a little behind the pack. Similarly, the Ravens are still tied for the shortest Super Bowl odds, even with a 1-2 record. Kansas City, on the other hand, is not the heavy Super Bowl favorite the Chiefs have been in past years.
This will be the seventh time that Mahomes and Jackson face each other. The Chiefs have won five of the six meetings, including last year’s season opener and the AFC Championship game two seasons ago. However, since all but one of those games have been decided by seven points or less, it might be best to stick with prop bets involving Mahomes, Jackson, and the playmakers who surround them.
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Mahomes has thrown exactly one touchdown pass in each of the first three games of the season. Admittedly, he’s been consistent in that regard. However, the Kansas City passing attack has been lacking early in the season, especially with Xavier Worthy dealing with an injury. If Mahomes couldn’t throw multiple touchdown passes against the Giants last week, it’s doubtful he can do so against the Ravens.
Despite giving up the second-most points in the NFL through three weeks, the Baltimore secondary has been tough to beat. While the Lions scored 38 points against the Ravens last week, Jared Goff had just one touchdown pass. Even Josh Allen had just two touchdown passes in Week 1’s 41-40 game. The Ravens have had a much harder time stopping the run, which is likely how the Chiefs will try to attack them. While that could work for the Kansas City offense, it makes it less likely that Mahomes will have multiple touchdown passes.
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This prop bet is more or less designed for quarterbacks like Jackson. One way or another, Jackson tends to put up big numbers. If teams try to take away his running ability, he can throw down the field. If they protect against the deep ball, Jackson will find room to run. He went over 270.5 yards through the air alone last week, while combining for 279 total yards in Week 1.
More importantly, the Chiefs are getting worse at defending Jackson. In both the AFC Championship Game two seasons ago and last year’s regular season meeting, Jackson threw for over 270 yards. Even if the Chiefs have a plan to stop his legs, Jackson may not need a lot of rushing yards to go over this total. Plus, he’s gone over 270.5 passing and rushing yards in four of the last five Chiefs-Ravens games.
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One could play it safe by betting on Henry as an anytime touchdown scorer, but why not take a chance on him scoring twice? Even after a modest rushing total in Week 3, Henry still has three touchdowns in three games. Also, the Chiefs might put too much emphasis on Jackson and forget about Henry.
In fairness, the Chiefs have allowed just three rushing touchdowns in three weeks this season. However, they don’t have a good head-to-head track record with Henry. In five games against the Chiefs (just one with the Ravens), he’s scored multiple touchdowns three times, making this week a good time to be aggressive.
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