De’Von Achane is currently averaging 6.6 Yards per Reception
Washington’s odds to win the NFC East continues to decline
The Commanders front seven ranks top-5 in Run Defense Win Rate
After a slow start to the year, De’Von Achane has started to get into a groove as the Miami Dolphins running back continues to burn opposing defenses through the air and on the ground on a weekly basis. In Sunday’s international contest against Washington, negative regression looms large over Achane as he faces off against a Commanders front seven who excels at stuffing the run.
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It has been a month to forget for the Washington Commanders as they have seen their odds to win the NFC East division title and the Super Bowl odds plummet after losing their last five games in a row. Even during their recent losing skid, their front seven has still played at a very high level in regard to stopping the run as their defense ranks top-10 in Run Defense Win Rate and in PFF Grade.
Fortunately for the Commanders, their front seven will have the opportunity to build on their momentum against Miami as they face off against an offensive line who resides near the bottom of the board in Run Block Line Yards. With the Commanders' front seven narrowing the width of the Dolphins' running lanes with their pressure, expect Achane to be slowed down in the trenches at a consistent rate.
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With the Commanders preferring to anchor their linebackers across the middle as their low Blitz Rate indicates, Achane will struggle to generate an explosive run as their extra bodies in the second level will make it easier for them to contain him once he gets past the trenches. The Commanders' secondary also severely underwhelms in coverage which may lead to a decrease in Achane’s total number of carries should the Dolphins pass at a heavier rate.
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Speaking of airing out the ball, Achane has also played a major role in the Dolphins' pass attack as he is currently second on the team in total Receiving Yards while averaging 6.6 Yards per Reception. After Tyreek Hill went down with a season-ending injury, opposing defenses have started to shade their coverage towards Jaylen Waddle which has forced Tua Tagovailoa to target Achane at a higher rate instead of forcing a throw to his wide receiver.
In Sunday’s international matchup against Washington, expect Achane to continue to receive a high volume of Targets in the form of screens and dump-offs in an attempt to counter the Commanders' crowded middle. This will force the Commanders to stretch out their coverage which will help free up space for the Dolphins' pass catchers. For some more exposure, escalator bet Achane’s Reception prop by placing smaller wagers on his alternate overs.
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Achane’s versatility has also been on full display when in scoring position as he leads the Dolphins in total Red Zone Carries with a 62.5% Usage Rate while rivaling Waddle for the most Red Zone Targets. With the Commanders' defense ranking in the bottom ten in Def DVOA and in EPA, the Dolphins will be able to get into scoring position at a higher rate which increases Achane’s chances of scoring.
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Rushing Yards: 780
Rushing Touchdowns: 5
Yards per Carry: 5.5
Rushing Yards per Game: 78.0
Total Fumbles: 1
Receiving Yards: 325
Receiving Touchdowns: 4
Yards per Reception: 6.6
Anytime Touchdown Scorer Predictions in Week 11
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