The Jets are 0-3 after starting the season with losses to the Pittsburgh Steelers, Buffalo Bills, and Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
The Dolphins are also 0-3, with losses on their resume to the Indianapolis Colts, New England Patriots, and the Bills.
The Jets will have quarterback Justin Fields back after he missed Week 3 due to a concussion.
In one of two games on Monday Night Football in Week 4, we have an AFC East showdown between the New York Jets and Miami Dolphins.
Currently, both teams are positioned near the bottom of the list in not only Super Bowl odds but also their own division and the AFC East odds.
They’re both 0-3 to start the season and both +10000 to win their division.
Below, I’ll cast my prediction for this game, review the odds, and provide a preview for each team.
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Teams | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
---|---|---|---|
New York Jets | +132 | +2.5 (-102) | Over 44.5 (-108) |
Miami Dolphins | -156 | -2.5 (-120) | Under 44.5 (-112) |
The Dolphins had a much better showing in Week 3 on Thursday Night Football against the Buffalo Bills, but lost 31-21.
Before that game, they did put up 27 points, but that was against another AFC East rival, the New England Patriots. They also couldn’t get the running game going, and six of those points came on a special teams touchdown.
Now, they host the Jets. While the Jets are also 0-3, I think they’re the better team and could win outright.
However, to be safe, I’ll take the 2.5 points.
In this game, quarterback Justin Fields will be back in the lineup. He was excellent in Week 1 and got injured in Week 2, suffering a concussion.
In Week 3, backup veteran quarterback Tyrod Taylor got the start, and the Jets almost beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on the road. They blocked a field goal and returned it for a touchdown to take a 1-point lead. Unfortunately for them, though, the Buccaneers drove down the field and kicked a field goal to win the game.
Having watched both teams over the last three weeks, I trust the Jets more. Sure, they’ve had some defensive issues, allowing 133 rushing yards per game (tied for eighth-most in the NFL), but I think they can cause problems for Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa.
The vast majority of coverages the Jets play are Cover-1, Cover-2, Cover-3, and Cover-4.
Against those coverages this season, Tagovailoa has a high completion percentage, but a mediocre yards-per-attempt average of just 6.1 yards, and has four interceptions.
This will be a close game, but a clutch turnover will turn the tide and lead the Jets to a road win.
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While the Jets laid an egg in Week 2, they could be closer to their Week 1 form in this game on the road against the Dolphins.
The Dolphins primarily deploy Cover-1, Cover-2, and Cover-3 defenses.
Against those coverages dating back to Week 1 of last season, Fields is 4-4, has a 67.1% completion rate, 987 yards, seven yards per attempt, three passing touchdowns, and no interceptions.
Not to mention he’s one of the best runners in the NFL at the quarterback position.
He should be in for a great bounce-back game.
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While the Dolphins did manage to put up 21 and cover the spread in Week 3, some context is important.
Yes, it was against the Bills, but it was on a short week on Thursday Night Football. Not only that, but any time there’s a divisional game, the final score tends to be quite closer.
To me, what’s most important is that the Dolphins had a chance to tie the game down 28-21 and blew it with a Tagovailoa interception.
Now, as mentioned above, that could happen again.
This is not a good offense. It averages 89.7 rushing yards (27th) and 192 passing yards (21st) per game and has a turnover-prone quarterback.
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New York Jets
Jarvis Brownlee Jr. - Ankle injury (questionable)
Jermaine Johnson II - Ankle injury (questionable)
Tony Adams - Hip injury (questionable)
Kene Nwangwu - Hamstring injury (questionable)
Josh Reynolds - Hamstring injury (questionable)
Miami Dolphins
Storm Duck - Ankle injury (questionable)
Jason Marshall Jr. - Hamstring injury (questionable)
Jaylen Waddle - Shoulder injury (questionable)
Darren Waller - Hip injury (questionable)
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When: Monday, Sept. 29
Where: Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, FL
How to Watch: ESPN
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