The Las Vegas Raiders beat the New England Patriots on the road in Week 1, 20-13.
The Los Angeles Chargers beat the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 1 in Brazil 27-21.
The only team in the AFC West that’s 0-1 is the Kansas City Chiefs
We’ve arrived at Week 2 of the NFL season, and closing out the week, in one of two games on Monday Night Football, is the Las Vegas Raiders hosting the Los Angeles Chargers.
Both teams are 1-0 after winning in Week 1.
In this game, we’ll have a battle of two star rookie running backs, including Ashton Jeanty (Raiders) and Omarion Hampton (Chargers). Needless to say, this game will have a significant impact on their NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year odds.
Further, the Chargers knocked off the Chiefs in Week 1, so a 2-0 start would help them surge up the Super Bowl odds list.
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The Raiders' offense looked fantastic in Week 1 in a win over the New England Patriots. Quarterback Geno Smith completed 24 of 34 passes for 362 yards, one touchdown, and one interception.
Now, they’ll take on a Chargers defense that primarily played Cover-3 and Cover-4 zone defense.
From 2024 to now, Smith has completed 73.7% of his passes against those coverages.
Additionally, I think one aspect where the Raiders have an advantage is edge rusher Maxx Crosby coming off the right side of the Chargers’ offensive line, which has Trey Pipkins III positioned there.
Between Smith’s passing statistics against the Chargers’ primary coverage and Crosby wreaking havoc, I think the Raiders can keep pace but ultimately lose.
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Herbert is coming off a massive game in which he completed 25 of 34 passes for 318 yards (9.4 yards per attempt) and three touchdowns.
Herbert will face a Raiders defense that primarily ran Cover-2 and Cover-3 in Week 1. From Week 1 2024 to now, 49.4% of his dropbacks have been against these coverages, and he’s 188 of 253 (74.3%) for 2,258 yards (8.92 yards per attempt), 12 touchdowns, and one interception.
In Week 18 last season, Herbert threw for 346 yards against the Raiders.
It’s all lining up for Herbert to have a great game.
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Of the three legs, this is the one I’m the least confident in, but given the line value, I’m willing to take a chance.
In 2024, Johnston had eight touchdowns, but he received an 18.5% target share. He saw 91 targets and caught 55 passes for 711 yards. He caught 60.4% of his targets.
In Week 1 this season, he saw a 20.6% target share, trailing behind Keenan Allen and Ladd McConkey. He ran a route on 87.8% of dropbacks, which is almost 10% higher than last season.
Allen was at 78%, but he was also recently signed.
There are a few weapons on this offense, including Hampton, who’s a great pass-catching back, and tight end Tyler Conklin, but they only saw a 5.9% target share.
Last season, Johnston caught four passes or more in just six games.
We could see him come back down to earth in this game in the receptions department. That said, Johnston has the profile of a player who could only have a few catches and rack up the yardage.
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