The Commanders and Bears last played on Oct. 27, 2024, and the Commanders won 18-15.
The Bears are coming off a Week 5 bye.
The Commanders are coming off a 27-10 road win over the Los Angeles Chargers.
In the second of two Monday Night Football games, the Washington Commanders will host the Chicago Bears. They last played on Oct. 27, 2024, and the Commanders won 18-15.
The Commanders are coming off a big-time 27-10 road win over the Los Angeles Chargers, while the Bears had a Week 5 bye.
With their win over the Chargers, the Commanders’ Super Bowl odds have improved after moving to 3-2. Additionally, while neither quarterback—Jayden Daniels or Caleb Williams—is really in the NFL MVP odds conversation right now, they’ve shown themselves to be two of the best young signal-callers in the NFL thus far.
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Heading into this game, the Bears are coming off a bye and with that additional rest, should have weapons like tight end Colston Loveland back in the lineup.
While the Commanders are coming off a 17-point road win over the Chargers, they could be susceptible here.
The Commanders play Cover-3 more than anything else, and against that coverage, Williams isn’t the most efficient passer, but he is averaging 8.1 yards per attempt and has four touchdown passes.
As a road underdog, I expect the Bears to be behind and having to throw, and Williams has plenty of weapons at his disposal to help with covering the spread.
That said, it is worth pointing out that the Bears allow a league-high 140.75 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs, along with 6.05 yards per carry.
This could actually help them cover because, if the Commanders opt to run more with Jacory Croskey-Merritt, Daniels, and others, this will naturally bleed the clock out, too.
Fresh off a bye, the Bears will cover the spread but lose on the road to Washington.
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As mentioned above, Williams has had a lot of success against Cover-3 with four of his eight touchdown passes.
Additionally, when playing Cover-3, the Commanders are allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 72.3% of their passes for 477 yards (10.9 yards per attempt) and two touchdowns.
Through five games, the Commanders have allowed three quarterbacks to have two passing touchdowns or more: Jordan Love, Geno Smith, and Michael Penix Jr.
I think Williams could be in for a productive evening against a team that’s allowing, on average, two passing touchdowns per game over the last four weeks.
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No team’s worse in the NFL against running backs than the Bears. They’re allowing 23.25 carries for 140.75 yards (6.05 yards per carry), and 0.75 rushing touchdowns to the position per game.
Now, they’ll go up against the Commanders' rookie running back Croskey-Merritt, who had two rushing touchdowns last week on 14 carries and also had 111 yards.
Heading into this game, Austin Ekeler is, of course, out for the season with an Achilles tear, and it’s not looking good for Chris Rodriguez Jr.
Without them both on the field and playing, Croskey-Merritt sees 82.7% of the running back carries.
So, Croskey-Merritt scored twice last week, is averaging 6.6 yards per carry, and is going up against the league's worst team against running backs.
It’s all lining up for a good game for the seventh-round rookie.
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