The Chiefs have won four of their last five games.
In his first game back from a six-game suspension, Rashee Rice caught seven passes on 10 targets and had two touchdowns.
Patrick Mahomes finished Week 7 with four carries.
To close out Week 8 of the 2025-26 NFL season, the Kansas City Chiefs are hosting the Washington Commanders.
The Chiefs have won four of their last five games and have scored 28 points or more in each of their previous four. This recent run has put them atop the Super Bowl odds, and quarterback Patrick Mahomes is the favorite for the NFL MVP award.
Below, I’ve created a Same Game Parlay for this Monday Night Football showdown with +1600 odds.
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| Chiefs vs. Commanders SGP Picks | Odds | Get $100 in FanCast at Fanatics |
|---|---|---|
| Leg 1: Chiefs -12.5 | -105 | CLAIM HERE |
| Leg 2: Rashee Rice: First Chiefs TD Scorer | +320 | CLAIM HERE |
| Leg 3: Patrick Mahomes Under 4.5 Rush Attempts | +100 | CLAIM HERE |
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While 12.5 points is a lot, this is going to be a tough game for the Commanders as they head into Kansas City with quarterback Jayden Daniels. Additionally, wide receivers Deebo Samuel and Terry McLaurin are questionable, but trending in the right direction.
Still, with Marcus Mariota under center, the Commanders face an uphill battle against a Chiefs team that’s won four of their last five and has put up 28 or more in each of their last four games.
This season, the Chiefs are averaging 26.6 points (sixth), 123.4 rushing yards (12th), and 247.1 passing yards (sixth) per game.
Defensively, the Chiefs are allowing just 174.6 passing yards (fourth-fewest) per game.
In his two starts this season, Mariota went 1-1 and completed 31 of 48 (64.6%) for 363 yards, three touchdowns, one interception, and one rushing touchdown.
However, in the loss to the Atlanta Falcons, he completed under 60% of his passes for 156 yards, two touchdowns, one pick, and averaged just 5.8 yards per attempt.
Now, he has to go into Kansas City as a near two-touchdown underdog with his two top receivers banged up, and he will be passing from behind for the majority of the game.
This feels like a “Chiefs tee off” situation, win, and cover with a 12.5-point spread.
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For this next leg, I’m going with something a bit bolder, but highly plausible, and that’s Rice to be the first touchdown scorer for the Chiefs.
In his first game back from a six-game suspension, Rice had a 29.4% team target share, which was about 15% higher than the next-highest player. He caught seven passes on 10 targets for 42 yards and two touchdowns.
In fact, he caught the first touchdown in the 31-0 win over the Las Vegas Raiders.
Against opposing wide receivers, the Commanders are allowing 161.43 yards (seventh-most) and one receiving touchdown (tied for seventh-most) per game.
Going up against Commanders cornerback Marshon Lattimore, who’s having a down season, expect Rice to be a favorite target of Mahomes once again, early and often.
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This season, Mahomes has had five carries or more in five of seven games.
So why take the under now?
Well, last week, in a 31-0 win over the Raiders, he had four carries while Pacheco had 15 carries for 57 yards and a touchdown. Pacheco hasn’t been efficient or reliable this season, but the other factor to consider is that Rice is back in the lineup.
Now, Mahomes has his go-to No. 1 receiver to throw to. As mentioned, he drew a nearly 30% team target share.
Additionally, in games in which the Chiefs won, were favored, and the final score was a win by 14 points or fewer, Mahomes has had only 16 carries.
With Rice back in the lineup, Pacheco being looked to a bit more, and them being sizable favorites, Mahomes shouldn’t have to run as much as he had to in past weeks.
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