The Dolphins are -2.5 favorites over the Jets in the early matchup
The Broncos are -7.5 favorites to beat the Bengals in the late game
Favorites are 2-2 ATS on Monday Night Football this season
Week 4 of the NFL season presents another Monday Night Football doubleheader, giving bettors twice the number of opportunities to find their best bets for the contests.
The evening begins with the Miami Dolphins hosting the New York Jets in an AFC East showdown. It will later conclude with the Denver Broncos welcoming the traveling Cincinnati Bengals into town for an AFC encounter.
Want to know which player props and picks to target to close out the week of action? Here are my best picks and bets for Monday Night Football in Week 4.
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Tagovailoa has been relatively awful to start the season, ranking 29th in QBR and throwing at least one interception in every game. However, he went over this line in back-to-back games and got to spend 10 days resting and preparing for this home matchup after being on the road against the Buffalo Bills on Thursday Night Football in Week 3.
The Jets’ passing defense ranked 30th in EPA allowed per play, while they’re 28th in overall points surrendered per game. The Fins have struggled to get out of the blocks, but Tagovailoa is capable of having solid games, and he’s going against a struggling defense with extra time to prepare.
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The Dolphins’ defense, particularly their secondary, is battered and bruised. Conventional wisdom would suggest that this would be an opportune time to bet the over on Justin Fields or Garrett Wilson, but I don’t think Fields returning from a concussion is a great prospect, regardless of the situation.
I like Hall since he averaged 12.7 carries per game and just needs to average about four yards per carry at that volume to cash the over. The Dolphins’ secondary issues could also force them to back off the line of scrimmage, leaving space for Hall to work against what is still a poor run defense.
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Nix has been one of the least effective quarterbacks in the NFL to start the season…but one thing that hasn’t disappeared is his athleticism. He went over this line in his last two games and recorded eight carries in two of three contests, which sets him up to hit the over based on the volume of touches.
The Bengals’ defense stinks and is wildly undisciplined. They have holes to exploit all over the field, so I wouldn’t be surprised if Nix came close to cashing this line or cashed it outright in just one attempt.
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Teams have to put the ball in the hands of their best players. Chase had two catches for 26 yards in the opener, 14 for 165 yards in Week 2, and five for 50 last week against the Minnesota Vikings’ suffocation defense. Regardless of who’s in at quarterback, he needs touches for this offense to click.
The Broncos allowed 308 average passing yards over their last two outings, and now face a QB in Jake Browning who is willing to put air under the ball, no matter where it’s traveling. Chase dominates the Bengals’ offense and should get his chances.
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