NFL Wild Card Picks Against the Spread: Rams Historic Favorites, Steelers Put 23-Game Winning Streak on the Line

• The Panthers are tied for the largest home underdogs in NFL playoff history

• The Steelers won 23 straight home games on Monday Night Football

• Division-champion home teams are underdogs in half of the Wild Card matchups

At long last, the NFL playoffs have arrived. The path to the Super Bowl begins in Wild Card weekend on Saturday, and I’m here to share my best bets against the spread for all of the matchups.

The Seattle Seahawks lead oddsmakers’ board of prospective Super Bowl champions, followed by the Los Angeles Rams and Denver Broncos. Last year’s winners, the Philadelphia Eagles, are fourth.

For more info, see our Super Bowl odds and predictions.

One of the defining characteristics of this postseason is its wide-open nature. Nearly every team looks like it's positioned to go on a run through the bracket, and that all starts this weekend.

There’s no reason to delay any longer. Here are my best NFL Wild Card playoff picks and bets against the spread.

• My 2025 NFL Playoff betting stats: 0-0

NFL Wild Card Picks ATS

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Rams vs. Panthers - Jan. 10, 4:30 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Rams -10 (-110), Panthers +10 (-110)

• Moneyline: Rams -600, Panthers +450

• Total: Over/under 46.5 (-110/-110)

The Rams enter the playoffs second in Super Bowl odds, despite being the fifth seed in the NFC, only behind the first seed and their NFC West rivals, the Seattle Seahawks. Matthew Stafford led the NFL in passing yards and touchdowns and is the odds-on NFL MVP favorite, although he had 243 yards, two touchdowns, and two interceptions when these teams met in LA on Nov. 30. The Rams’ defense also plummeted to 23rd in EPA per play since Week 13, despite ranking seventh for the year as a whole.

For more insights, see our NFC Championship odds and predictions here.

Bryce Young and company limped into the playoffs with an 8-9 record and a three-way tiebreaker advantage after losing four of their final six games. The best news is that one of those wins was a shocking 31-28 win over the Rams on the road, in which they ran 40 times for 164 yards, dominated the time of possession, and were +3 in the turnover margin. They have a limited path to another victory, and their ranking 27th in defensive success rate since Week 13 doesn’t help anything.

Okay, it’s time to give my first pick of the 2025 (2026?) NFL playoffs. The Panthers can keep this within 10 points if they can effectively establish their running game and extend drives, even if they don’t have the scoring punch to pull ahead. Forcing turnovers and avoiding giveaways will be key for them, and to be fair, Stafford was looser with the ball down the stretch than he was at any point of the season. I’m looking for the Panthers to barely hold onto a cover.

Rams vs. Panthers pick: Panthers +10 (-110) at bet365

Packers vs. Bears - Jan. 10, 8:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Packers +1 (-115), Bears -1 (-105)

• Moneyline: Packers -105, Bears -115

• Total: Over/under 46 (-110/-110)

The Packers did not finish their season well, dropping four straight games, including one to the Bears three weeks ago, a game that Jordan Love was knocked out of, but did not make a difference in when he was upright. Their defense slumped even prior to Micah Parsons’ ACL injury, but it’s been noticeably worse since then. The best Super Bowl picks typically enter the playoffs playing their best football, and the Packers have done the total opposite.

The Bears also enter the postseason on a two-game skid, but under a much different context. One of their losses was a 42-38 thriller against the 49ers in a playoff-like atmosphere, and the other was a walk-off field goal loss to their rivals, the Lions, who have an extremely talented roster. Chicago’s consistent ability to run the football, combined with their improving defense, which outranked the Packers’ in EPA per play since Week 9, makes them a credible threat.

I can’t get behind Love playing his first game in three weeks on the road against a team that already beat him. The Bears have won a lot of one-score games, but their consistency running the football and setting up the play-action means that play style is transferable. The Packers are fraying at the seams, and I wouldn’t trust them as far as I could throw them at this point in the season.

Packers vs. Bears pick: Bears -1 (-105) at bet365

Bills vs. Jaguars - Jan. 11, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Bills -1.5 (-110), Jaguars +1.5 (-110)

• Moneyline: Bills -120, Jaguars +100 

• Total: Over/under 51.5 (-110/-110)

Josh Allen and the Bills’ top-ranked rushing attack are in for a nice change of pace, vacating their usual responsibilities of handling Joe Burrow’s Bengals or visiting Patrick Mahomes’ Chiefs to take on the up-and-comers of the AFC. The Bills closed their season by winning five of their final six games, one of those being an impressive 35-31 victory against the Patriots. They have one of the worst run defenses in the NFL and are only average in sacks and turnover margin, so they’ll need to play one of their best games of the year.

See our AFC Championship odds and predictions for more details.

The Jags’ torrid finish to the year saw them win eight straight games, only two of those by one score. Trevor Lawrence is in the middle of the best stretch of his professional career, and the Jacksonville defense has been fairly fantastic, ranking fifth in EPA allowed per play. This is a big step for them as a franchise, but they already beat the Broncos (by 14), the Chargers (by 29), the Texans (by seven), and the 49ers (by five).

Turnarounds of this magnitude don’t happen very often, and even when they do, they’re difficult to continue in the postseason. Considering that the Jags have a first-year head coach in Liam Coen, a 30-year-old offensive coordinator, and are relying on Lawrence to continue to play turnover-free football without fully leveraging his top wideout, Brian Thomas Jr., it just feels like a lot to ask for them to win. Josh Allen isn’t under pressure like he normally is in the playoffs, and I think Buffalo’s big-game experience will shine through. 

Bills vs. Jaguars pick: Bills -1.5 (-110) at bet365

49ers vs. Eagles - Jan. 11, 4:30 P.M. ET 

• Spread: 49ers +4 (-110), Eagles -4 (-110)

• Moneyline: 49ers +175, Eagles -210

• Total: Over/under 45.5 (-110/-110)

Despite a plethora of injuries, the 49ers arrived in another postseason with a 12-5 record. Brock Purdy finished the year with 10 total touchdowns and two interceptions in two of his final three games, although he only had 127 yards and an interception in the battle for the NFC West title in Week 18. Christian McCaffrey has been excellent, but the defense is only 24th in EPA per play and 30th in success rate, both of which are major red flags.

The Eagles’ worst performances have come on short weeks of rest, which is why it’s a huge positive that they rested the majority of their starters in Week 18. Kevin Patullo’s offense has been shockingly inefficient, with the team producing three-and-outs at a historic rate, struggling to get Saquon Barkley out of the blocks, and seeing Jalen Hurts look incapable of throwing the football. Despite that, the defense was playing outstanding football down the stretch and looks to be back in the form it was during last year’s run to the Super Bowl.

The defensive matchup in this game is nothing short of an enormous mismatch. The Niners’ running game can translate anywhere against anyone, but if there’s a chance for the Eagles’ offense to fall into line, it should come after an extra week of rest and preparation. Getting the Birds on their home field is too good of an opportunity to ignore.

49ers vs. Eagles pick: Eagles -4 (-110) at bet365

Chargers vs. Patriots - Jan. 11, 4:30 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Chargers +3.5 (-110), Patriots -3.5 (-110)

• Moneyline: Chargers +170, Patriots -205

• Total: Over/under 46 (-110/-110)

All metrics indicate that Justin Herbert survived behind the worst offensive line in football, finishing his year ninth in passing yards (3,727), tied for seventh in passing touchdowns (26), and with an unfortunate 13 interceptions. For all of their problems on offense, including long-term injuries to running backs, they still finished the year 11-6 and are a tough team to beat. Their zone-heavy defense is one of the five best in football, and Jim Harbaugh is just as, if not more, seasoned in the playoffs as any coach in football.

Welcome to the playoffs, Drake Maye! The second-year starter and MVP candidate was masterful during the regular season, while his defense was 12th in yards allowed per play. The biggest concern for the Pats is that they went 1-2 against teams above .500, and that lone win came against the Bills during a Week 5 matchup on Oct. 5, meaning that 98 days will have passed between kick-off and the last time they beat a winning team.

The Chargers are one of those teams that are tough to beat and that nobody wants to see in a high-leverage game, although admittedly, they just dropped back-to-back contests against the Texans and Broncos. The Patriots were only 20th in sack percentage and were just about average in yards allowed per carry, and I’m not convinced that they have the outfit that will do what should be done to the Bolts’ horrible offensive line. The lack of experience beating quality opponents to boot is terrifying.

Chargers vs. Patriots pick: Chargers +3.5 (-110) at bet365

Texans vs. Steelers - Jan. 12, 8:15 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Texans -3 (-120), Steelers +3 (+100)

• Moneyline: Texans -180, Steelers +150

• Total: Over/under 39.5 (-110/-110)

Closing the season on a nine-game winning streak with wins over the Jaguars, Chargers, Bills, and Chiefs (pre-Mahomes injury) is certainly one way to enter the postseason. The Houston defense is simply one of the most terrifying units not only this year, and not only on defense, but on either side of the football in modern NFL history. C.J. Stroud is a far cry from the player he was as a rookie, but he isn’t being asked to do a ton because of the excellence of his teammates.

Aaron Rodgers and company snuck through the backdoor of the playoffs after the Ravens’ rookie kicker missed a 44-yard field goal that would’ve won them their Week 18 matchup and the AFC North title. Pittsburgh was only 18th in offensive and 19th in defensive EPA per play, and T.J. Watt isn’t at full strength due to the incident that affected his lung. Aaron Rodgers is relatively immobile, reliant on check-downs, and is stubbornly attached to back-shoulder one-on-ones, and he only had 203 yards, a TD, and two INTs when he faced the Seahawks, who have the defense that is the most comparable to the Texans’.

Rodgers’ inability to run around in the pocket against a defensive front as menacing as this one is terrifying, as is Mike Tomlin, the best underdog coach ATS in all of football, catching three points at home. My biggest worry is that Pittsburgh will have a strong game plan that allows them to use man coverage to put pressure on Stroud, who hasn’t proven he can consistently go out and make game-winning plays. Despite all of that, I believe that the Texans will stay hot. 

Texans vs. Steelers pick: Texans -3 (-120) at bet365

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