The Buccaneers have lost three of their past four games
Matthew Stafford is the current MVP favorite
Los Angeles is a touchdown favorite at home
The Buccaneers and Rams are two of the best teams in the NFC, and they will battle on Sunday night in Los Angeles. Tampa Bay has lost three of their past four games, so expect Baker Mayfield to be locked in for four quarters. Find more info in our latest NFC Championship predictions.
On the flipside, Matthew Stafford has been outstanding and is the current NFL MVP favorite. There should be plenty of prop betting opportunities on bet365.
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Matthew Stafford is the current MVP favorite, and it’s easy to see why. He has thrown for 2,557 yards with 27 touchdowns and just two interceptions, putting him sixth in passing yards and first in touchdowns.
That production is even more impressive considering he’s 37 years old and has battled numerous injuries throughout his career. Now that he’s finally climbed above .500 for the first time in his career, he should be playing with plenty of confidence.
Stafford is coming off one of his worst outings of the season, posting just 130 passing yards against the Seahawks, but that sets him up well for a bounce-back performance.
The Buccaneers must travel across the country, and they’re coming off a dreadful showing against the Bills, who hung 44 points on them. Josh Allen carved up Tampa Bay for 317 yards and three touchdowns, strengthening his own MVP case.
None of that was surprising given Tampa Bay’s struggles against the pass. They have the sixth-worst pass defense in the NFL, allowing 241.6 yards per game.
Elite quarterbacks have consistently put up big numbers against the Buccaneers, and Stafford should be next in line on Sunday night.
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While the Buccaneers have given up plenty of yardage through the air, they’ve been excellent in the red zone. They allow explosive plays that can lead to scores, but those chunk gains typically account for most of the touchdowns they surrender.
In this matchup, Tampa Bay should limit the number of big plays, which makes it tough to see Matthew Stafford going over his touchdown prop without consistent red-zone success.
Once the Rams get inside the 20, the Buccaneers’ defense gains a clear advantage. They’ve been outstanding in tight areas, forcing long drives to stall and keeping opponents out of the end zone.
If Tampa Bay continues its usual red-zone dominance, Stafford will have a difficult time reaching three passing touchdowns. Davante Adams has been fantastic near the goal line, but the Buccaneers will make containing him their top priority.
Tampa Bay may give up yards, but once the field shrinks, they typically clamp down and that defensive profile works against Stafford’s touchdown upside.
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The Buccaneers’ passing game has been one of the bright spots of the 2025 season, with Baker Mayfield even entering the MVP conversation at times. While that buzz has cooled, Tampa Bay still boasts a strong aerial attack centered around standout rookie Emeka Egbuka.
Egbuka has hauled in 45 passes for 717 yards and six touchdowns, making him the clear favorite in the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year odds.
He has just one touchdown over his past five games, and that dip in production has contributed to the Buccaneers’ recent struggles. Mayfield needs to continue feeding him the ball, and that level of volume should eventually turn into scoring opportunities.
With 22 targets in the past two weeks, Egbuka’s increased involvement suggests a breakthrough is coming. That kind of usage usually leads to touchdowns, and the rookie is well-positioned to find the end zone again soon.
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