The Green Bay Packers routed the Detroit Lions 27-13 in week one
Jayden Daniels averaged over six yards per carry against the New York Giants
Jordan Love ranked top-3 in Completion Percentage Above Expected
The Green Bay Packers made a statement in their season opener against Detroit as they beat the reigning NFC North division champions 27-13. Their defense suffocated the Lions' explosive offense as their front seven consistently collapsed their pocket. Expect the Packers to continue to create pressure, forcing Jayden Daniels to use his legs to keep drives alive.
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After winning the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year award, Jayden Daniels has managed to build on his momentum as the Washington Commanders quarterback generated a total of 301 yards in their week one win against the New York Giants. His dual threat ability was on full display as 68 of his total yards came on the ground while averaging over six yards per carry.
In Thursday night’s matchup against Green Bay, Daniels may have to utilize his legs at a heavier rate as he faces off against a Packers front seven who excelled at creating pressure. Especially with his offensive line ranking below league average in Pass Protect PFF Grade, potentially leading to an uptick in scrambling situations which will help generate a rush attempt.
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Even though Jacory Corskey-Merritt was listed as the RB4 on Washington’s depth chart, the Commanders' running back quickly took control of starting duties as he led all other backs in rush attempts. He made the most of his attempts as Croskey-Merritt ranked second overall in Rushing Yards Over Expected Carries while averaging over eight yards per carry.
Unfortunately for Croskey-Merritt, the quality of his rushing lanes are expected to decline as he faces off against a Packers front seven who excelled at stuffing the run. After ranking sixth overall in Def Rush DVOA last season, the Packers have carried over their success as they held Jahmyr Gibbs to less than three yards per carry. The Commanders are also projected to play from behind which will lead to an uptick in pass attempts.
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On the other side of the field, Jordan Love was arguably one of the most efficient quarterbacks in week one as he finished the contest ranked top-3 in Quarterback EPA per play and in Completion Percentage Above Expected. Even though he only threw for 188 yards, Love was precise as he completed over 72% of his passes.
Heading into Thursday night, Love will have the opportunity to put together another productive performance as he faces off against a Commanders defense who ranked below league average in Def Pass DVOA and in Success Rate. Their heavy use of the blitz leaves their secondary on islands which simultaneously creates higher quality passing lanes for Love to exploit.
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After leading the team in Red Zone Targets last year, Tucker Kraft has seemingly picked up from where he left off as the Packers tight end hauled in a touchdown against Detroit in week one.
With the Commanders' secondary expected to be stretched out thin, Kraft will have a great opportunity to take advantage of their gaps in coverage. Make sure you place a wager on Kraft to score a touchdown at the best available odds as he can be found as low as +165 which is a difference of $35 in profit for a $100 bettor.
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Commanders vs Packers Prediction and Odds
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