Saquon Barkley was held to just 30 total rushing yards against the Denver Broncos
Barkley is currently listed as questionable on the Philadelphia Eagles' injury report
The New York Giants' defense ranks near dead last in Def DVOA and in EPA
After being held to just 30 total rushing yards by the Denver Broncos' defense, positive regression looms large over Saquon Barkley as he draws a much more favorable matchup in Thursday night’s contest against the New York Giants. Especially if Jalen Hurts can continue to space out the second level of the defense with his arm, giving Barkley more room to work with when he breaks through the trenches.
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After winning the NFL Offensive Player of the Year award last year, Saquon Barkley has struggled to carry over his efficiency into this season as he currently ranks below league average in Yards Over Expected per Attempt. His offensive line has played a major role in his regression this season as the Eagles' front five resides in the bottom half of the board in Run Block Win Rate.
Fortunately for Barkley, positive regression looms large as he faces off against a New York Giants front seven who severely struggles to stop the run. Through the first five weeks of the season, the Giants' defense ranks near dead last in Def DVOA, EPA, and in Run Defense PFF Grade. With the Giants failing to plug the gaps, expect Barkley to reach the second level of the defense at a more consistent rate.
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Even though Barkley has struggled with his efficiency in the middle of the field, he still receives a majority of the rush attempts when in scoring position as he currently leads the team in total number of Red Zone Carries. Barkley also plays a role in their pass attack as he has hauled in both of his targets inside the 20.
With the Eagles' offense expected to get into scoring position at a more consistent rate, Barkley will see an uptick in his number of carries inside the red zone which increases his chances of punching one in for six. For some more exposure, escalator bet Barkley’s anytime touchdown scoring prop by placing smaller wagers on his alternate totals at the best available odds across multiple sportsbooks.
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Not only do the Giants' front seven struggle to stop the run, but their back end also severely underwhelms in coverage. A stunning low level of play when you factor in how well their defensive line excels at pressuring the quarterback as their front four ranks top-10 in Pass Rush PFF Grade.
Their scheme leaves them vulnerable to getting picked apart as the Giants blitz their linebackers at one of the heaviest rates in the league while ranking 20th in Sack Rate. With their secondary stretched out thin, this opens up wider gaps across the middle for the Eagles' pass catchers to exploit. It also hurts their chances of bringing down the receiver at the point of contact which increases the Eagles' chances of generating an explosive play.
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It has been a rough start to the year for the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year contender as Jaxson Dart ranks near dead last in Quarterback EPA per play. With the Eagles' defense excelling at collapsing the pocket, Dart will have less time to let his plays develop which drastically reduces the quality of his passing lanes.
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