The Minnesota Vikings are currently in last place in the NFC North division standings
Justin Herbert threw for 420 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions in week 8
The Vikings defense ranks top-5 in Def DVOA, EPA, and in Pass Rush Win Rate
Even though the Minnesota Vikings are currently 3-3 and in last place in the NFC North division standings, it has not been because of their play on defense as they have been dominant at all three levels of the field. Their ability to collapse the pocket at a consistent rate will give the Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert fits, potentially leading to an uptick in stalled out drives and in early outs.
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Do not let Justin Herbert’s two interception performance against Indianapolis fool you, the Los Angeles Chargers' former NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year winner has still been one of the most efficient arms in the league as he ranks above league average in Quarterback EPA per play. An impressive performance, especially when factoring in how poor his offensive line has been as the Chargers' front five ranks in the bottom ten in Pass Protection PFF Grade.
Unfortunately for Herbert, negative regression looms large as he faces off against a Minnesota Vikings defense who ranks near the top of the board in Def DVOA and in Pass Rush Win Rate. Their ability to consistently collapse the pocket will force Herbert to get the ball out of his hands quicker than anticipated which will drastically lessen the quality of his throws and his chances of moving the ball down the field through the air.
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In the rare instance the Chargers do get into scoring position, Herbert will struggle to connect with his receivers as the Vikings' secondary will get the benefit of stretching out their coverage without sacrificing too much ground. Their extra bodies spread across the middle will clog Herbert’s passing lanes which reduces his chances of generating a completion.
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To make matters worse for Herbert, the Vikings' scheme on defense will make it tough for him to successfully scramble away from their pressure as the Vikings call one of the highest rates of the blitz. With their linebackers plugging Herbert’s running lanes, this will force him to either throw the ball into a tight window or to take a sack.
Even when in quarters coverage, the Vikings linebackers will be able to crash down when they see Herbert take off and run and stop him before he generates an explosive play. Playing on short rest also tends to result in a more conservative game script which will eat away at Herbert’s total number of pass sets which also lessens the total number of scrambling opportunities.
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With opposing defenses forced to shade their coverage towards Justin Jefferson, TJ Hockenson has had the benefit of facing more single coverage which gives him more room to work with. This has helped him rack up targets near the end zone as Hockenson currently ranks second on the team in total Red Zone Targets.
With the Chargers struggling to collapse the pocket, Hockenson will have more time in the open field to break away from their coverage which will increase the quality of Carson Wentz’s passing lanes. Should JJ McCarthy make his return from injury and get the start instead of Wentz, then reduce the size of your wager.
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