With a majority of their core intact, the Florida Panthers are in a favorable position to make another run at the Stanley Cup as they possess one of the best defenses in the league and a former Vezina Trophy winner in their net. Their high level of play on defense will be on full display against the Chicago Blackhawks as they face off against a front line who struggles with generating high quality Shots on Goal.
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Even while dealing with injuries, the Florida Panthers were still able to overcome them and win their second straight Stanley Cup. Their defense played a major role in their success last season as their back line finished the year ranked top-10 in Expected Goals Against in All Situations while Sergei Bobrovsky averaged just 2.44 Goals Against per game and a .906 Save Percentage.
In Tuesday’s season opener against Chicago, the Panthers defense will have the opportunity to get off to a hot start as they face off against a Blackhawks offense who is projected to reside near the bottom of the board in Expected Goals For in All Situations. With their offense struggling to space out the Panthers' coverage, Bobrovsky will have no issue with consistently walling off their low quality Shots on Goal to hold them under their team total.
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While the Panthers' defense is expected to thrive, their offense has some question marks looming over them with Matthew Tkachuk and Aleksander Barkov out with an injury. Their loss of production will fall on the shoulders of Sam Bennett who already excels at generating high-quality shot attempts as he averaged 0.43 Expected Goals and 3.17 Shots on Goal per game in 2024.
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After winning the Presidents’ Trophy in 2023-2024, the New York Rangers failed to carry over their momentum into last season as they failed to make the playoffs. Their struggles on defense brought in too much variance for them to overcome as their back line ranked near dead last in Expected Goals Against in All Situations with an average of 3.38 Expected Goals Against per game.
Like the Rangers, the Pittsburgh Penguins' back line also struggled to play at a competitive level as their defense ranked equally as poor in the same previously mentioned defensive metric. Their struggles in coverage opened up wider shooting lanes in front of their net for opposing offenses to exploit which hurt Tristan Jarry’s ability to play at a competitive level. With both back lines projected to underwhelm, expect both offenses to create high-quality scoring opportunities at a consistent rate in front of each other’s net.
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After a severely disappointing offseason, the Los Angeles Kings' struggles on offense are poised to persist as they have failed to surround Adrian Kempe and Kevin Fiala with quality playmakers. With the Colorado Avalanche fielding a defense who ranked fifth overall in Expected Goals Against in All Situations, the Kings will struggle to break through their line and pressure their net. If the Kings' team total drops down to 2.5, then reduce the size of your wager.
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