After cashing the over on the Carolina Hurricanes team total on Friday, we go back to the well as their front line has the opportunity to thrive in a matchup against the underwhelming Boston Bruins defense. At the same time as their puck drop, we turn our attention towards the Vancouver Canucks and Florida Panthers as the reigning Stanley Cup champions face off against an offense who struggles with generating high quality Shots on Goal.
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Since the start of the regular season, the Boston Bruins back line have severely struggled with staying in front of the puck as their defense ranks 26th overall in Expected Goals Against in All Situations with an average of 3.61 Expected Goals Against per game. Their lack of coverage hurts Jeremy Swayman’s ability to defend their net as the Bruins starting goalie is currently averaging nearly three Goals Against per game.
Unfortunately for the Bruins, their struggles in coverage are poised to persist as they face off against the Carolina Hurricanes who excel at pressuring the net as their top-2 mark in Expected Goals For in All Situations indicates. Especially with the Hurricanes fielding a versatile front line as six players average more than 0.25 Expected Goals per game. For some more exposure, escalator bet the Hurricanes team total by placing smaller wagers on their alternate overs at the best available odds.
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Seth Jarvis has played a key role in Carolina’s success on offense this season as the Hurricanes center heads into Monday night averaging 0.60 Expected Goals and 3.17 Shots on Goal per game. With his linemates stretching out the Bruins coverage, Jarvis will see an uptick in his quality of shot attempts which increases his chances of converting them into a Shot on Goal.
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Even after re-tooling their back line in the offseason, the Florida Panthers have been able to continue to play at a high level on defense as the reigning Stanley Cup champions rank top-10 in Expected Goals Against in All Situations and in 5-on-5 Play. Their suffocating coverage has helped Sergei Bobrovsky get off to a hot start as the former Vezina Trophy winner is currently 8-5-0 while averaging just 2.63 Goals Against per game.
Heading into Monday night, expect the Panthers to continue to thrive on defense as they face off against the Vancouver Canucks who reside near the bottom of the board in Expected Goals For in All Situations with an average of 3.14 Expected Goals per game. With only Evander Kane averaging more than three Shots on Goal per game, the Canucks lack the playmaking that is needed to keep Bobrovsky constantly scrambling in the crease which hurts their chances of opening up a shooting lane beside him.
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Even though the Edmonton Oilers have harshly regressed on offense this season, Connor McDavid has still been able to generate high quality Shots on Goal at a consistent rate as the three time Hart Memorial Trophy winner is averaging 0.47 Expected Goals per game. In Monday night’s contest against Buffalo, McDavid will be able to continue to create pressure in front of the net as he faces off against a Sabres back line who ranks 29th in Expected Goals Against From High Danger Shots.
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