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Premier League Top Four Odds, Predictions, Picks 2024

Written by: Greg Lea
Updated March 25, 2024
10 min read
  • The Premier League 2023/24 season began on August 11 and will end on May 19

  • The campaign will feature 38 rounds of fixtures spread over more than nine months

  • Several teams could be in contention for a top-four finish in the 2023/24 season

The Premier League 2023/24 top-four race promises to be a thrilling one as England’s top clubs battle it out for a place in the Champions League. Fifth place could be enough to qualify this time around, but as things stand only the top four are guaranteed a spot in the expanded tournament.

The season got underway on August 11 and will conclude on May 19. Every team will play each other home and away across 38 rounds of fixtures, as is customary in the Premier League.

Which clubs will finish in the top four, and which will miss out? Let’s look at the odds before we take a broader look at the battle for the top four.

Premier League 2023/24 Top Four Odds

The odds for the Premier League 2023/24 top four are provided by the Betway sportsbook, which offers $250 back in bonus bets.

Premier League 2023/24 Top FourOdds
Manchester City-20000
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Liverpool-20000
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Arsenal-20000
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Tottenham Hotspur-110
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Aston Villa+125
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Manchester United+900
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Chelsea+8000
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Newcastle United+10000
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Top 4 Predictions

Who Will Finish in the Premier League Top Four 2023/24?

For an analysis of Manchester City, Liverpool, and Arsenal, check out our Premier League Title Winner piece.

Tottenham Hotspur (-110) at Betway

A 4-0 thrashing of Aston Villa earlier this month allowed Tottenham Hotspur to take control of the top-four race, but a subsequent loss to Fulham means Ange Postecoglou’s side remain in fifth place. They are now three points behind Villa but have a game in hand on their closest rivals.

Tottenham are ahead of schedule under Postecoglou, who has done an excellent job to make them this competitive in his first season in charge. Spurs still have to face Manchester City, Liverpool and Arsenal, though.

Aston Villa (+125) at Betway

Aston Villa finished last season strongly under Unai Emery and they carried that momentum into the current campaign. There is no doubt that the Midlands club deserve to be where they are, but dropping out of the top four at this late stage of proceedings would be a major blow.

Emery is an excellent manager who has the full trust of his players and the Villa supporters. But like Tottenham, Villa still have to play the three Premier League title contenders - Manchester City, Arsenal and Liverpool.

Manchester United (+900) at Betway

Manchester United have been hamstrung by inconsistency all season long. A 2-0 victory over Everton in their last game means they are not out of the battle for the top four yet, but Erik ten Hag’s side have a mountain to climb with 10 games left.

Indeed, United are currently nine points adrift of Aston Villa, albeit having played a game fewer. That means they need three wins and three Villa defeats to simply wipe out the deficit, while also hoping that Tottenham drop several points too. In other words, United are dark horses at best.

Chelsea (+8000) at Betway

After finishing 12th last season, Chelsea were hoping to get much closer to the top four this time around. They are struggling to do so, however: at the time of writing, the Blues are 11th in the table and 17 points adrift of the final Champions League qualification spot.

Chelsea do have two games in hand on Aston Villa and one on Tottenham Hotspur, who still have to travel to Stamford Bridge. But it would take a miracle for Mauricio Pochettino’s men to finish in the top four from here.

Newcastle United (+10000) at Betway

Newcastle punched above their weight to finish in the top four last season, but there has been a reversion to the mean this time around. An injury crisis has not helped matters, but Eddie Howe’s team have also gone backwards - particularly defensively.

Previously one of the most solid sides in the division, Newcastle’s backline has been a weakness this time around. They are a whole 16 points shy of Aston Villa in fourth, hence such long odds in this market.

What Happens to the Top Four Teams in the Premier League?

The top four teams in the Premier League automatically qualify for the group stage of the following season’s Champions League. It is therefore a prize worth fighting for, even though the goal of many clubs at the start of the season is to win the Premier League title.

In previous seasons, the top three teams automatically reached the group stage of the Champions League, and the fourth-place finisher entered the qualifying phase. 

That changed at the start of the 2017/18 campaign when UEFA handed more automatic qualification spots to Europe’s biggest leagues, including England’s top flight.

Which Clubs Have the Most Finishes in the Premier League Top Four?

ClubNumber of Finishes
Manchester United26
Arsenal22
Chelsea19
Liverpool19
Manchester City13
Tottenham Hotspur7
Newcastle United6
Blackburn Rovers3
Leeds United3
Aston Villa2

When it comes to winning the title and finishing in the top four, Manchester United are the most successful side in Premier League history in that regard. Arsenal moved further clear of the chasing pack in second thanks to their second-place finish last term.

Manchester City are still relatively low down this list due to the fact that their first Premier League top-four finish came in 2010/11. They will probably continue to close the gap on the teams above them in the next few seasons.

Premier League Top Four FAQ

Who Are the Top Four in the Premier League?

Was the Premier League Top Four Always a Goal for Clubs?

Was the Premier League Called the Premiership?

How Can I Watch the Premier League on TV?

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AUTHOR

Greg Lea

786 Articles

Greg Lea is a freelance soccer journalist from London. He is the former editor of The Set Pieces, and has contributed to the Guardian, FourFourTwo, and ESPN. A Crystal Palace fan, he is a long-time subscriber to the belief that it's the taking part that counts. Email: [email protected]

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