Blast Premier Picks, Predictions, Odds February 3

  • All matches on Thursday will be best of three, played in an online format
  • Complexity will start as favorites against MIBR in a low profile contest
  • World No. 1 Na Vi will look to end their losing streak against Liquid

 

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Blast Premier Picks

Complexity vs MIBR Pick

Complexity (moneyline)

Complexity vs MIBR Predictions

Complexity are struggling, at least based on recent form. While they are playing with a new roster, it is important to note that if they are to improve on their current world No. 28 ranking, there is plenty of work to be done. They are coming into this game on the back of a 16-12 loss against BIG in their previous match.

MIBR have more of the same problems that Complexity have. They too have fielded a new look roster, with several new, up and coming players. They were beaten 16-9 by Astralis in their previous match, in Overpass. And have also lost their preceding match, 16-9 to OG in Ancient. There is lots of work to be done if they are to progress through this event.

This is a best of three game, which means the likelihood of a positive result improves for the team with the more skill because over a longer duration, skill trumps chance. That is also why I am picking Complexity to go on and win this, possibly in three maps.

Complexity Relying on Floppy And Junior

Floppy and Junior have both been in sensational offensive rhythm in the last few months of CS:GO action. Junior, in fact, has the best offensive output for the team in the last three months, with 0.74 kills and 0.60 deaths per round in this period. He has done this at an impressive average damage per round of 81.2.

Junior has absolutely aced his defense in this period, producing 0.79 kills and 0.57 deaths per round at an average damage per round of 78.7. While that ADR is definitely a bit lesser than anticipated, it still shows how easily he can use longer range weapons for proficiency.

Complexity also have a couple of other players they can use down the stretch that bring both experience and offensive skill, such as South African national JT, who has managed 0.66 kills and 0.65 deaths per round in the same analysis period.

MIBR Have A Lot Of Work To Do

MIBR are a franchise with a rich history, including preceding their rebranding. They have a completely new look team now, which means there is far more inexperience than they would like, which is not the best trait presently because of the highly competitive nature of this tournament, which does not bode well for a team that has been struggling for fluency.

Brnz4n is MIBR’s most proficient offensive weapon, producing returns of 0.81 kills and 0.73 deaths per round at an average damage per round of 81.6. At face value, these are stellar numbers but the quality of opponent is not as high as he would be faced with at a top tier event like the Blast Premier.

These two teams have played each other in two maps previously. Extra Salt, as the franchise was known previously, won in straight maps. That means that there is additional confidence and momentum on Complexity’s side, additional traits that MIBR will have to overcome.

The Map Matchup

Complexity have been in stunning form in the maps in the last few attempts. In fact, they have won 86 percent of their last 14 maps in Inferno, 68 percent in Nuke in their last 19 maps, 82 percent of their last 11 maps in Overpass and 86 percent of their last seven attempts in Inferno. These are terrific numbers, by any standard of measure.

MIBR, on the other hand, have struggled in most of these maps, which means that Complexity have a discernible advantage in almost every map that is chosen. Will that play a part down the stretch? There is no doubt that if that pans out, Complexity will be better poisitoned to capitalize on MIBR’s recent issues, both in terms of output and consistency.

Natus Vincere vs Liquid Pick

Natus Vincere (moneyline)

Natus Vincere vs Liquid Predictions

The unpredictability of CS:GO was on full show in the early part of this tournament as the top ranked team in the world was first beaten by a struggling MIBR team in Dust 2 (16-12) and then another loss right after, against Astralis 19-17 in Mirage. Still, Na Vi will remain strong, which will keep them at the top of the CS:GO rankings.

Liquid have had problems right from the time they moved up to No. 1 in the CS:GO rankings. They have moved up and down, lost and gained players and have had personnel and form concerns for the last few years. Their form has been so poor, in fact, that the former world No. 1 has now dropped so drastically that they are 56 in the world currently.

When it comes to finding the right matchup, it is hard to see Liquid coming close to facing up with this Na Vi team. They do not quite have the same depth and consistency in order to remain solid on both ends of offense as well as finding defensive stability.

S1mple The Key For Na Vi

S1mple has been one of the best players in the world for a while now. That is true not just for the last few months but also for the years preceding the pandemic, when many CS:GO events were still conducted as LAN tournaments. Here are his stunning returns.

He has managed 0.91 kills along with 0.59 deaths per round at an average damage per round of over 90. These returns have come against some of the best teams in the world, including in high pressure situations such as Majors.

S1mple has proved himself as one of the best in the world. And that is not going to change. But he now needs to stand up and inspire or catalyze his team into action. After two straight defeats, maybe his team needs just that, which could change the dynamics a bit.

Naf, OSee In Sprightly Offensive Form

It is very important for Liquid to be able to use some of their older players, who are more attuned with the franchise, to be able to help their colleagues find the style and nature of play. Naf is one of those players. He has found some recent offensive form, which includes 0.71 kills and 0.63 deaths per round at an average damage per round of over 80.

OSee, who was previously employed with Cloud 9, has moved to Liquid in a nice career move for him. He has owned the long range weapons, producing 0.80 kills and 0.58 deaths per round at an average damage per round of over 80 as well.

Together, these two players will be the key for Liquid if they are to have any chance. When a match is as one sided as this, then you would expect that the only chance an underdog has is to beat the other team using aggression and strength in offense.

The Map Matchup

Na Vi don’t have as good a record in Mirage, but apart from that, they have been in astounding form across most other maps. For example, they have been on fire in Dust 2, winning 83 percent of their last six maps. They have even seven of their last eight attempts in Nuke at a win percentage of 88.

Liquid don’t have a large enough sample size of data for analysis of their map advantage. And as a result, it is only a natural conclusion to assume that Na Vi will have the edge in almost any map these two teams meet at.

Liquid and Na Vi have faced each other eight times in pro CS:GO, with both teams winning four, including one map going into overtime. A lot has changed since then though.

BIG vs Evil Geniuses Pick

BIG (moneyline)

BIG vs Evil Geniuses Predictions

This is a tricky prediction to make because BIG are now starting to find consistency but EG provide compelling odds at this price. We might have to ignore the rankings in this one because both teams are significantly better than their current rankings indicate.

BIG are presently No. 14 in the world while a few months away from the professional scene has put EG at No. 101 in the world. There are also a few key personnel changes for EG, which means it could take some time for them to find their fluency.

If EG, who are coming off a recent losing streak of four straight matches, fail to find their feet early on in this tournament, it could be a long road for them. As a result, BIG are the better team to bet on because of their recent involvement on the pro circuit.

Form A Concern For BIG

BIG have not quite hit their straps in the last few weeks, which will be a concern because they have competed in lower profile tournaments to find some form. Instead, they have lost four of their last six matches, including a 16-9 loss to NiP in Nuke in their previous game.

They will go back to Faven to find some offensive spirit. He has averaged 0.80 kills per round along with 0.64 deaths at an average damage per round of 83.6. Syrson, who was a big player in helping BIG to No. 1 in the ranking, is averaging 0.70 kills and 0.62 deaths per round, which is not a bad return on investment at all.

Tabsen is another influential player in an offensive phase that BIG have often relied upon, and that is not going to change in the next few months. Tabsen has averaged 0.74 kills and 0.71 deaths per round in the last three months of action.

Negative K/D Ratios All Around For EG

EG have been in such appalling form that all five of their players have negative K/D ratios in the last three months. Even Brehze, who had a topsy turvy 2021 in terms of form, has struggled from the outset. His returns are at 0.64 kills and 0.74 deaths per round in the last three months, which is highly atypical for him.

With this new core, EG have lost four of their last five matches, which is why their odds are as favorable as they are currently for BIG. But if EG find their form, then you never know. We can only make betting decisions based on the information we are presented with.

Currently, that data, historical precedence, empirical evidence, personnel matchups and several other key factors are leaning towards the strength and consistency of BIG. At these odds, you could even consider a CS:GO parlay, and add Na Vi into that to increase your potential return and increased pay out.

These two teams have not played each other previously, which comes as a surprise considering they were in the top 10 for long periods in 2021. Nonetheless, EG will have a long road to recovery, and will have to come up against teams like BIG on a frequent basis, and beat them to have any chance of achieving the standard they did in 2020.

How to Watch Blast Premier Spring Groups

Blast Premier Spring Groups Information
Teams Complexity vs MIBR, Natus Vincere v Liquid, BIG vs EG
Location Online events, best of three matches
Time Thursday, February 3 at 7.00 AM EST onwards
How to watch Blast Channel on Twitch

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Nikhil Kalro

Expert on esports

With an interest in strategy and mathematics, applying that to sports writing was the natural progression. A writer at night and the founder of a gaming company, Nikhil’s previous experience includes working with ESPN for five years. His specialization includes soccer, basketball, tennis, and esports betting. Email: [email protected]