Dota 2 Champions League Picks, Predictions, Odds February 2-3
- Winstrike, Mind Games start as massive favorites in the Dota 2 Champions League
- Brame, Nemiga involved in even money matchup
- There could potentially be value in Gambit in their match against Entity
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Gambit vs Entity Picks and Predictions
Entity to win
The Dota 2 Champions League resumes this week with a blockbuster clash pitting two strong contenders. In a pool as tight as this, every win matters.
With the top two from each pool advancing to the upper bracket of the playoffs, it is important for Gambit and Entity to not take their foot off the pedal.
Entity have won four in four; Gambit three in three.
One of their winning run will be broken on Wednesday. Who is more likely to go down? If the punters are to be believed, Entity are favorites to notch up their fifth win.
Let us see why.
Entity’s Proven Record
A win percentage of 72.22 across 18 maps points to a pattern of consistency. One look at their offensive proficiency tells you why they’re a dangerous team.
They land 28.28 kills on an average in the latest patch of Dota-2, averaging a very respectable 20.78 deaths, to go with a fine assist rate of 61.89.
In wins, they take 29.24 minutes to finish a map.
This is slightly lesser than their overall time of 30.39 minutes. What this means is they aren’t a team that goes all out right from the outset. They are methodical, calculative, and have a tendency to take their time, line up their kills and then go for broke rather than looking to attack from the get-go and slip up through the cracks.
Entity’s Pace Setters
Stormstormer forms an important part of their plans.
The German player, who reached the milestone of 11,000 MMR in November, has an impeccable win-loss ratio – 27 wins and 12 losses across 39 maps.
He holds the best average kill rate in his team, 9.72, to go along with 2.79 deaths and 10.33 assists.
The low death rate points to his excellent ability to hold his own after landing the big kills. Far too often, players can have a tendency to briefly switch off.
That isn’t true in this case. If Stormstormer holds the aces in the offense, the defense is manned by Tobi, Fishman, and Suzaya, whose assists rates are among the best in the business.
Don’t Write Gambit Off
There isn’t much data available to draw a pattern to Gambit’s performances, but that they have begun the championship strongly despite the presence of some superstar teams is an indication enough of their potential.
Write them off at your own peril. The odds may be against them perhaps due to their relative inexperience. But one big performance when it matters could tilt the scales in their favor.
Chekoldyriki vs Hydra Picks and Predictions
Pick: Hydra to win
It must be said neither side has shown they are title contenders.
They are the kind of teams that can upset a top team on their day. And their performances and position in the mid-table tell you as much.
Hydra have two wins and two losses, Chekoldyriki have one win and three losses.
Both of them are currently outside the top two in the pool, and they’re unlikely to make it there. But there’s still a matter of trying to finish third and fourth for that will help them advance to the lower bracket of the playoffs.
Going by the match odds, though, you’d think Hydra will stomp over their opponents.
The Mystery Factor
It has been a torrid start to 2022 for Chekoldyriki, the Russia-based outfit, who are coming off losses to CIS Rejects, HF, and AS Monaco Gambit. But they will bank on unfamiliarity and lack of match history.
There isn’t a definite pattern or trend opponents can study about certain players to adopt plans. In many ways, plans will have to be made on the fly.
That said, it’s very likely Hydra’s more refined game will be good enough to overcome this mystery factor.
Hydra’s Middling Record
It is not like Hydra are on a dream run.
Their overall record too is on an upswing, but they still have some distance to go before they go from being challengers to contenders. Their win percentage of 57.63 across 59 maps tell you they’re work in progress.
They have a kill rate of 23.88, but a near equal death rate of 22.66 points to a few grey areas in their defense, majorly their inability to prevent attacks on the bounce.
Their assist rate too is modest, and needs to get better than their current average of 53.49. Another pattern that is quite revealing is the time they take in wins: 36.25.
This is comfortably eight or nine minutes off the pace from many of the top sides, but by no means an indication of their inability.
What it simply means is they take their time to sift through the map, and while they may not be as agile as the others, there is a plan they believe in and want to give themselves chances to succeed with.
Only time will tell if the ‘wait and watch’ approach serves them well. Asked and Dream are their most prolific offensive players, who will have to do much of the running to land the big kills.
On paper, they should tear through the map against an opponent searching for answers for their three losses.
This could be an absolute mismatch, and Hydra could stomp their way to a massive win despite having to iron out a few areas.
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Winstrike vs Ivy Picks and Predictions
Pick: Winstrike to win
Winstrike vs Ivy
Two sides that have been intimidated by the big boys are now looking to turn around a poor start to their campaign.
With two losses to open the championship, they’re languishing at the bottom of Group B, and a win on Thursday for either side will help them stay afloat in their quest to challenge for the top two. On current form though, this may seem far-fetched. Finishing third or fourth is a more realistic dream.
Going by just their past history and form, the punters are crystal clear on who will give you a good return on investment. Ivy clearly have the odds stacked against them to such an extent that they have literally been written off here.
Now it is for them to rise and prove a point, not to anyone but themselves that they’re not as bad as what the punters seem to be suggesting.
Only the eccentric will be ready to back them here, and back them big. It tells you all you need to know about who the favorites are.
Winstrike Score On Many Counts
Odds aside, Winstrike score on several parameters, not least being their win percentage of 56.52 across 46 maps. In comparison, Ivy barely scrape 38, having won just 11 out of their 29 maps. Winstrike land 27.33 kills and 24.04 deaths to Ivy’s 22.34 kills and 30.69 deaths.
Such a high negative ratio, where they average more deaths than kills, points to Ivy’s lackadaisical defense.
Winstrike conjure a number of assists and build towards a kill. This is well defined by an impressive assist rate of 60.37, which is more than the average.
Ivy are weak on that count too, managing an average of 47.72. It is a simple case of having to rejig their plans, better their defense and look to stay in the contest longer, and not be blown away to such an extent that they reach a point of no-return.
Ivy’s Best Far From The Best
Imagine your highest offensive proficiency rate is 4.85 kills. And then factor in how the death rate is nearly the same. These numbers by low skill point to how big a gulf there exists between Ivy and the top sides. The Bloodysky’s kill rate of 3.55 comes next. But he doesn’t help matters by conceding such a high death rate of 7.33.
All other metrics simply point to a pall of gloom. In comparison, Daxak has a kill rate of 7.08, death of 2.29 and assist rate of 8.32. It is entirely possible Daxak can single-handedly be the difference between both teams.
B8 vs Mind Games Picks and Predictions
Pick: Mind Games to win
B8 vs Mind Games
If you thought Ivy were the weakest team in the field, B8 could potentially give them a serious run for their money.
The odds for them are so heavily stacked against Mind Games that they may as well just tear down any templates they may have and play without the pressure of trying to win.
That could perhaps free them up to deliver better than they have. For the record, B8 have are ranked seventh in the pool with three losses, while Mind Games are group toppers with four wins in four.
They are so far ahead that even a bad slip up from here could still possibly seem them remain in the top two. The gulf between the sides is that big.
B8 – There But Not Quite
Ahead of the season, B8 revamped their roster to include Alexander “V1olent” Park, Danil “Dendi” Ishutin, Maxim “pJonn” Netrebsky, Adam “Lagoona” Chakhaev, and Azamat “Gatciy” Gattsiev.
Dendi remains their most experienced player in the field, while Gatcjy is another key player. The exit of one of their founding members, Dendi, has added to their set of problems in the build-up to the championship.
That state of flux they are in is now showing, with their performances so far having been abject. It will take something out of the world to get back on track. Upsets in sports are rare, and this one would’ve been an unforgettable one if they manage to topple Mind Games.
Mind Games Pack A Punch
Mind Games have seasoned players such as Semion “CemaTheSlayer” Krivulya and Rostislav “fn” Lozovoi whose strategic inputs and experience of having countered different situations across maps will prove to be invaluable.
As such, Dota 2 is 50% skill and 50% mentality and attitude, and Experience is a key currency which this side has.
They have players who don’t care if they are countered because they are all looking at a high risk, high returns strategy.
Players aware of their spells and cooldown helps massively in building up good offensive proficiency. Mind Games pack a punch on these counts.
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Brame vs Nemiga Picks and Predictions
Pick: Nemiga to win
And finally, to end our long roster of midweek games, we will end with a contest of evens when Nemiga and Brame, placed third and fourth respectively, square off in a crucial clash. Both sides come with plenty of experience in pedigree, so it will be mighty hard to pick an outright winner for this one.
Nemiga have the experience but a slightly underwhelming win percentage of 48.57 across 105 maps. A higher death rate (27.93) than their kills (25.73) points to a weak defense.
In comparison, Brame have a superior win percentage of 57.65 across 85 maps. For starters, they land more kills (27.29) than death (25/14). They assist rate of 57.98 also points to improved proficiency across lanes.
Brame Sift Through Faster
Neminga close out games in 36.09 minutes, Brame are a tad faster in competing maps in 35.18 minutes when they win. This isn’t a measure of being better, but possibly a strong indication of having set plans that often tend to work for them.
How to Watch Dota 2 Champions League
|Event||Dota 2 Champions League|
|Teams||Gambit v Entity, Chekoldyriki v Hydra, Brame v Nemiga, B8 v Mind Games, Winstrike vs Ivy|
|Time||February 2, at 7.00 AM EST onwards|
|How to watch||Twitch, YouTube|
Esports Predictions and Odds
With an interest in strategy and mathematics, applying that to sports writing was the natural progression. A writer at night and the founder of a gaming company, Nikhil’s previous experience includes working with ESPN for five years. His specialization includes soccer, basketball, tennis, and esports betting. Email: [email protected]