LEC 2022 Spring Spli Picks, Predictions, Odds February 11

  • Rogue will fancy their chances against an Astralis team not at their best
  • Fnatic will be a reliable choice in their matchup against SK Gaming
  • Mad Lions against G2 is a standout fixture from this round of the LEC

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LEC 2022 Picks

Rogue vs Astralis Pick

Rogue (moneyline)

Rogue vs Astralis Predictions

It is week five of the LEC Spring Split 2022 and things have been somewhat pear-shaped for Astralis. With nine losses halfway through their campaign, the team is perhaps at its lowest ebb. So low that they have looked to address their in-game issues, finally. Losses are a part of sport, but it is the predictable nature of them that has hurt Astralis.

“We know there is much potential in this team, more than the players are given credit for by many, but when we don’t deliver the results we want and don’t live up to our values in-game, this is just words,” the franchise said in a social media post. “We have seen a lot of progress in scrims, but our biggest issue right now is that we are still not always on the same page in-game, which leads to many situations where we have to navigate instinct and skills alone. This bleeds into our team fights, which is a big part of winning games right now. To turn things around, we’re taking a step back in some areas to focus on stabilizing the team so we can turn things around in-game.”

Rogue’s Role Clarity A Standout

Because they are so down and out, where even one win seems such a big ask, Astralis have the odds against them, and understandably so, by a big margin. So hinge your bets on Rogue, who are the only undefeated side in the spring split so far.

Winning nine in nine has given them the cushion of a few slip-ups, it has also given them some breathing space in terms of trying out new plans and strategies as they go deep into the competition. Their methodical preparation for each draft, role clarity and understanding of the current meta has helped them thrive.

Rogue – The Intimidators

Rogue comfortably overcame G2’s challenge in their previous clash last week. Larssen was prolific in the offence, landing 8 kills, 0 deaths and 9 assists. He was ably supported by jungler Malrang, with 2 kills, 1 death and 11 assists. They had another solid performer in Trymbi, whose assist game seems to have gone up a notch. By making 13 assists, he was an unsung hero who continues to quietly stand up and deliver each time without much fanfare. On every parameter, Rogue stood heaps ahead of G2.

They pocketed 50.2k gold to G2’s 38.6k. They landed 14 more kills than G2, captured 9 towers to their opponent’s 2, along with 2 inhibitors and dragons apiece, while G2 couldn’t manage a single one. The alarm bells are ringing for Astralis. If G2, far superior in class and experience, can suffer this fate, Astralis better watch out. Rogue have an intimidating presence and on current form, Astralis will have to be realistic. Fight, push them till the end and hope for a miracle.

Astralis Have To Play For Pride

Astralis have the ignominy of being one of only two teams – Excel being the other – in the current LEC roster to have failed to achieve a playoffs spot. That is unlikely to change in the immediate future. But as competitors, the remaining eight games are an opportunity for them to string up a winning combination, get their confidence back somewhat and look to build on that.

It is early to say if key personnel changes will be on the cards moving forward, but whenever teams fail, it’s hard to look beyond this aspect. Only time will tell, though. For now, it may appear that their quest for their first win will have to wait, for Rogue are simply too far ahead.

Team Vitality vs Excel Pick

Team Vitality (moneyline)

Team Vitality v Excel Predictions

In terms of where they are on the table, there is little to separate these two teams. Vitality have five wins in nine; Excel have four in nine. Both sides are on the edge, though, for finishing outside the top six will rule them out of the playoff race. As things stand, they can firmly control their fate with nine matches remaining.

Who knows, maybe one of them can even finish within the top three technically, but that will mean getting onto a roll of a kind they haven’t been able to so far. Vitality have managed to win two games on the bounce, so there is some kind of momentum they carry with them heading into the match.

Can Mikxy Deliver for Excel?

In a way, Excel have hinged their hopes on their new signing Mikyx, who has featured in three games for his new team following a move from G2. It’s a move that worked well for both parties, because the mid-season invitational champion was left without a starting position in a team prior to the start of the 2022 Spring Split. In making this bold acquisition, they had to consign Advienne on the bench.

On the face of it, this may seem harsh but you only need to have one glance at the stats to understand why. Advienne has underachieved so far in his support role. In five outings, he has managed an average of 0.4 kills, 3.2 deaths and 9.6 assists, along with a creep score of 33.4 and KDA of 3.13. These are poor numbers whichever way you look at them.

That said, Mikxy’s numbers haven’t been mind-blowing so far either. In four games so far, he has managed 0.25 kills, 4.25 deaths and 7.75 assists, along with a KDA of 1.88 and creep score of 37.75. A prominent support player ought to do better. The two wins have somewhat given him some breathing space. Numbers such as these tend to get amplified more when your team loses, so Mikxy will be aware he will need to do much better to start delivering wins on his own. As such, the expectations are high.

Vitality Discover New Performers

Since beginning the split with three losses back-to-back, Vitality are on an upward curve. You’d be outlandish to rule them out of playoff contention.Vitality had little trouble in brushing aside Astralis in their most-recent outing. But will look back on their clash against Rogue from last week to draw lessons from. After being neck-and-neck for a majority of the match, they let things slip and slip quickly. The end result reflected how close the two teams were.

Vitality managed just 7.2k gold less than Rogue, landed 8 kills to Rogue’s 12, captured 7 towers to Rogue’s 11. Carzzy had an off day, but they were propelled by PERKZ and Selfmade. Vitality has shown over time that whenever one key player misfires, they’ve found someone else to stand up and deliver. This is one of the main reasons why despite a poor start, they’re very much in contention for a playoff berth. So on the face of it, they are very much the favourites going into this clash.

BDS vs Misfits Pick

Misfits (moneyline)

BDS v Misfits Predictions

Two wins in their last three matches have lifted Misfits into the midfield, but don’t let that fool you. They have some work to do. Their opponents BDS have misfired, and continue to slip and slide. They have now lost two games in a row and are outside playoff contention currently.

Overall, with just three wins in nine games, the prospects of finishing in the top six look bleak. Another loss on Friday will dent their chances even more. In a sense, this will be a clash of two misfiring teams who are capable of a lot more, but haven’t delivered on their promise. The odds, however, still favour Misfits. Let’s understand why.

Misfits Carry Plenty Of Confidence

What Misfits can take into the game, though, is the confidence of one complete performance in their previous outing against SK Gaming. It’s one where SK Gaming didn’t stand a sniff of victory. Misfits collected 14k gold more, landed 23 kills to SK Gaming’s 11 and captured nine towers more than their opponents. Vetheo proved why he’s a player for all seasons.

A crisis man who has often delivered when his team needs him, he landed 12 kills, 2 deaths and 6 assists, to have a creep score of 279, the highest for the team. This was by no means his best effort, but against a side that is still struggling for any consistency, Vetheo managed these without really flexing his muscle.

BDS Not Clicking As A Unit

BDS have sputtered like a two-stroke diesel engine overall, but have occasionally shown sparks of brilliance. The kind of fight they put in to push a star-studded Fnatic to the limit showed they aren’t a side that will just make up the numbers, but such highs – even though they lost – have been followed by a series of disappointments. Top laner Adam didn’t mince words when he said they were frustrated to lose to Misfits when the sides clashed last. He reckoned they were lost, and that was down to miscommunication. Between then and now, it’s not as if the results are massively encouraging. They need to find a way to arrest the side quickly.

SK Gaming vs Fnatic Pick

Fnatic (moneyline)

SK Gaming vs Fnatic Predictions

When second from top plays second from bottom, you generally expect a lopsided contest. And so, when high-flying Fnatic take on SK Gaming, they will try and challenge Rogue’s position on the leaderboard. Both sides though will head into the clash on the back of a loss in their previous outing. Fnatic can afford to lose; SK Gaming can’t. It’s fairly simple why experts predict a runaway win for Fnatic here.

Fnatic Coming Off Demoralising Loss

Fnatic were favourites to beat Excel, who have now been given a window into the top six. Both sides were neck and neck in gold to begin with, before Fnatic surged ahead through jungler Razork. They applied pressure in the bottom lane and slowly sifted their way through the map. Excel went on the offensive immediately and captured a tower up top to signal their comeback. The match yo-yoed from one side to another before Excel eventually nicked it. That made it the third loss for Fnatic. A mid-season slump if you can call it. But their good deeds of the first three weeks have held them in good stead.

SK Gaming Need New Plans

SK Gaming will be looking up to Jezu and Sertuss to lead the way. The duo impressed in their previous outing over Misfits, along the way showing glimpses of their offensive proficiency and defence in the mid-lane. Jezu landed 6 kills, 4 deaths and 2 assists; Sertuss landed 3 kills, 4 deaths and 4 assists – which points to a somewhat mixed bag of a performance. At the stage they are in, though, SK Gaming will want to draw on some crumbs for comfort. The problem for them has been in the defence.

They have conceded far too many kills on an average per map. This hasn’t allowed them to challenge their opponents. They haven’t been able to stay in the game for long and have been blown away. They’ve tended to concede so much ground within the first half that there has been no way back. This is something they will have to correct. That said, to be able to do it against a top side requires a new plan and new template. Fnatic will be hurting, and will have their own set of plans. It will make for interesting viewing.

Mad Lions vs G2 Pick

Mad Lions (moneyline)

Mad Lions vs G2 Predictions

In a complex world driven by algorithms and several mind-numbing data sheets that tell you who has the advantage over another, the punters believe both MAD Lions and G2 have nearly the same odds. This highlights how close the two teams are to each other on the points table, in terms of class and experience of personnel and in terms of the plans and strategies they formulate. With five wins out of nine, MAD Lions are placed fourth. A win will consolidate their position in the top six, which will in-turn keep them in playoff contention. G2 are six wins in nine and a position higher. So it’s going to be a difficult one to predict the winner here. For the record, G2 mauled MAD Lions when the two sides met in their first bout three weeks ago.

Zeri Checks In At MAD Lions

MAD Lions handed a much talked about debut to Zeri in their previous game, against Fnatic.In the draft, MAD used their blue side advantage to eventually unleash her. Up until the first 25 minutes into the contest, she had one death to her name and a 0-1-0 scoreline. Four minutes later, she landed her first competitive assist as she got the better of Fnatic jungler Razork. Sparks of brilliance such as these will help her ease into the competition. It helps that the team is placed in the top half and is presently in no danger of slipping out of the top six.

Overall, Lions have prolific numbers. Look at UNFORGIVEN’s record for instance. He lands 5.11 kills, 2 assists and 5.56 assists, along with a KDA of 5.33 and a creep score of 334.Elyoya plays the second fiddle, with equally good numbers as a mid-later: 4.33 kills, 3.22 deaths and 7 assists along with a KDA of 3.22 and creep score 219.11.

G2 Need To Identify Preferred Play Style

G2 are coming off a loss to Rogue. This was their first loss to them in a regular season. G2 let Rogue dictate terms, as they executed their strategies to precision, finding multiple skirmishes and picks. That said, they have some grey areas despite a decent position in the table.

There is quality, no doubt, but they don’t have the aura of invincibility like in the previous years. They are yet to identify a preferred play style. As always, BrokenBlade and Flakked are the key players in the bot lane and mid-lane respectively. Opponents will do well to mark them out and build any kind of pressure they must on these two.

How to Watch LEC 2022 Spring Split

LEC 2022 Spring Split Information
Teams Fnatic, Rogue, G2, Vitality, Misfits, BDS, Mad Lions, Astralis, Excel, SK
Location Offline event, conducted in Europe
Time Friday, February 11 at 11.00 AM EST onwards
How to watch LEC official Twitch channel

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Nikhil Kalro

Expert on esports

With an interest in strategy and mathematics, applying that to sports writing was the natural progression. A writer at night and the founder of a gaming company, Nikhil’s previous experience includes working with ESPN for five years. His specialization includes soccer, basketball, tennis, and esports betting. Email: [email protected]

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