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At face value, it may seem like this is fairly evenly matched. It’s a vital lower bracket playoffs match, with the potential to advance further into this year-ending tournament. However, there are subtle factors at play right through in this contest.
Aster has won their last three matches. Let’s extrapolate Aster’s form over much larger sample size. In their last 51 maps, Aster has won 27 and lost 24. During this period, the team has averaged 24.02 kills, 21.80 deaths and 53.76 assists with 37 denies.
Team SMG, on the other hand, has been far better in terms of their recent record. In their last 39 games, they have won 25 and lost 14. Still, Team SMG are underdogs in this match on account of potentially not having the same defensive proficiency.
It won’t come as a surprise to SMG that in order to stand a chance against this Aster team, they will have to keep Monet quiet irrespective of which side they play on. Monet has been one of Aster’s most prolific offensive player in the history of the franchise.
In 301 maps for Aster, Monet has racked up a stunning kill average of 7 per game. He has also chipped in with 8.32 assists and just 2.67 deaths per map, which improves his efficiency well over his peers.
Monet’s contributions to Aster are not limited by just tangible kill participation metrics. He is also leading Aster in GPM at 660.56. No other player comes close to that in Aster’s history. He will be in charge of leading Aster through to the next stage of this Winter Invitational.
Both Aster and SMG deploy completely different methods to approach the map in Dota2. Aster are much slower and methodical through the lanes while SMG prefers to move quicker, which can often lead them down a tricky path.
Here is some proof of that statement. SMG has averaged 29.79 kills, more than five kills more per map than Aster. However, SMG are also managing over 30 deaths per map, which is untenable against some of the bigger, better teams in the world.
Aster’s average duration per map in their last 51 games is 37 minutes and 53 seconds. For SMG, that is substantially lower, presently at 35 minutes and 9 seconds. We can draw similar comparisons to the LPL in China and the LCK in Korea in terms of pace of play in League of Legends.
Still, this will come down to which team can dominate their preferred style. A methodical, concerted modus operandi can help stave off kills and keep Aster in the game for longer, allowing them to bide their time and pick off an opportunity.
In comparison to Aster, SMG is a significantly younger and inexperienced roster. Their most experienced player for this team is Ahfu, who has played 106 maps. In that period, he has registered an average of 3.06 kills, 7.09 deaths and 14.29 assists per map.
In terms of offensive proficiency, there will be a heavy reliance on Moon and MidOne. Both players have averaged over nine kills per map in their career with SMG. MidOne has played 92 maps (9.05 kills, 4.32 deaths and 10.20 assists per map) while Moon has averaged 9.18 kills, 4.99 deaths, and 10.44 assists. MidOne has a better GPM though.
Raging Potato has played just 16 maps for SMG while the final member of their five-man team, Roddgeee, has played 86 games. These numbers cumulatively are far lesser than the maps Monet has played alone for Aster.
In terms of movement and pace inside the map, Aster should be able to keep SMG shunting for hero improvement. If that pans out as expected, you might see SMG’s inexperience starting to show.
|Teams||SMG vs Aster|
|Location||Shanghai, online event|
|Time||Wednesday, December 29 at 1.00 AM EST onwards|
|How to watch||Huya Dota2 Winter Invitational Twitch and YouTube channels|
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