Beverly D. Stakes Predictions, Odds & Picks (Arlington Park)
If you're playing only to win, go with my top pick Mean Mary (3/2)
Beverly D. Stakes Predictions, Post Position and Odds
Check out our predictions and odds for the Beverly D. Stakes at Arlington Park!
|1||BRAMBLE QUEEN||2O/1 |
|J Loveberry||M Dini|
|2||MEAN MARY||3/2 |
|L Saez||G Motion|
|3||JOY EPIFORA||10/1 |
|D Cannon||I Correas IV|
|4||SANTA BARBARA||2/1 |
|R Moore||A O’Brien|
|5||NAVAL LAUGHTER||6/1 |
|S Doyle||C Davis|
|F Prat||C Brown|
|7||OH SO TERRIBLE||30/1 |
|C Roman||B Ross|
Mean Mary and Santa Barbara, two top females from different continents, headline a field of seven turf fillies and mares facing off in Saturday’s Grade 1 Beverly D. Stakes at Arlington Park.
The American, Mean Mary, is expected to be the favorite in the 1 3/16 test. The 5-year-old daughter of Scat Daddy became a millionaire in her most recent start with a game victory in the Grade 2 New York Stakes on June 4 at Belmont Park. Trained by Graham Motion, the victory made her a perfect 2-for-2 for the year, having won the Grade 2 Gallorette in her seasonal debut. Overall, she has seven wins and two seconds in ten career starts on the turf.
Santa Barbara, two years younger and bred in Ireland, is expected to give her older rival a stiff challenge in the $400,000 turf affair. Trained by Aiden O’Brien, the Camelot filly made her US debut last month in the Grade 1 Belmont Oaks and overcame trouble to sweep by her competition late.
The rest of the Beverly D. field is led by Lemista and Naval Laughter. The former is a Group 2 winner in Europe now trained by Chad Brown, who has won the Beverly D. five consecutive years. While the latter is a lightly raced daughter of Midshipman, who won the local prep for this in her grass debut.
Best Bets for the Beverly D. Stakes
Here are my plays ($50 in total)
$10 Trifecta Part Wheel – Mean Mary and Santa Barbara over Mean Mary, Santa Barbara and Naval Laughter over Mean Mary, Santa Barbara and Naval Laughter = $40
$10 Trifecta – Mean Mary over Santa Barbara over Naval Laughter = $10
How to Watch the Beverly D. Stakes
|Beverly D. Stakes Race Information|
|What||Beverly D. Stakes (Grade 1)|
|Time||Saturday, August 14 — 5:49pm Eastern time|
|How to Watch||TVG|
What a sensational turf record this speedy mare has put together in her first ten tries. Even in her only race in which she did not finish first or second, she was beaten only 2 1/2 lengths in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf last fall. She has had to work for her two victories so far this year, but she will probably only get better with those experiences underneath her.
Once again the Graham Motion-trained mare is the controlling speed, and I believe that will make her doubly tough in a race without much other speed. It’s very likely that she’ll be challenged once again in the stretch, as Santa Barbara looks that good, but I expect her to be up to the challenge under the red-hot Luis Saez. She is the top pick.
After running against some of the top fillies in Europe, it’s hard not to be impressed with her Belmont Oaks win. She overcame a tough trip and beat a very good filly in Con Lima. That win came against fellow 3-year-olds, but before that she just missed against a common older rival in Thundering Nights, when second in the Group 1 Pretty Polly at The Curragh. The daughter of Camelot clearly has a lot going for in her showdown with Mean Mary. She even gets a six-pound weight allowance from her older rival.
The one advantage she does not have is the race setup. If I knew that someone could make the race favorite work early, I would probably give Santa Barbara the edge, but as it looks on paper, Mean Mary holds a clear pace advantage. She is clearly the most dangerous opposition to the top choice.
Chad Brown’s only chance to keep his amazing streak of Beverly D. wins going, she exits a very disappointing result when last of eight in the Grade 1 Diana at Saratoga. Once a winner of four straight races in Europe, she was also disappointed against good horses in her final race of last season. Having said that, she did run a good second in her American debut against the classy Harvey’s Lil Goil. After the favorites, she is one of the ones that make the most sense, but at the odds due to the Brown factor, I am going to take a pass on her here.
This one has already accomplished plenty in her first four career starts. After a promising career debut way back in the fall of 2019, we did not see her again until this June, when she exploded in an Arlington maiden race, winning by nearly 20 lengths. After probably being pushed a little too hard early in an allowance race, she lived up to the potential shown in her maiden score, by being a game-winner of the Grade 3 Modesty in her grass debut.
Now proven on the turf and clearly a filly of ability, she will get a serious test against Mean Mary and Santa Barbara. I don’t expect her to win on Saturday, but there is every reason in the world to believe that she is a legitimate graded stakes filly, considering how fast she has come along in the last two months.
The good news for this 5-year-old mare bred in Argentina is that she probably turned in the best performance of her career last time when a strong finishing second in the Modesty. It was also her first try at Arlington, so perhaps the grass course agrees with her. Still, it’s hard to imagine her putting a strong scare into the favorites considering her overall body of work. With only one career win on turf in ten tries, she looks most likely to be only competing for one of the bottom positions in the exotics in the Beverly D.
The third-place finisher in the Modesty, this daughter of Silent Name ran a good race before weakening late. Off the performance, she gets a shot to run in the most important race of her career on Saturday. She has proven to be a nice Illinois-bred over the years, who knows her way to the winner’s circle. This level of opposition looks to be a bit beyond her scope, however.
Oh So Terrible
On paper, this mare just does not match up with her competition. She has not won a race in more than two years and finished way back in the Modesty as a big long shot. Now she must face tougher ones in here. She is hard to recommend.
More Horse Racing Predictions & Odds
Taken to the races at a very young age, Brian has been a passionate fan of horse racing his entire life. Professionally, his work has been published on several leading industry sites. Brian served as the Editor of Horse Racing Nation from 2010-2017, where he still writes a regular column and hosts the popular weekly webcast HorseCenter.
Email: [email protected]