There are some surprises to be found among Tuesday’s home run props. You won’t find Aaron Judge or Cal Raleigh. However, you will find plenty of good value among our picks.
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Even in a game with Aaron Judge and Cal Raleigh, Chisholm offers the most value for a home run prop. With 15 home runs this season, he’s shown an impressive amount of power, especially at Yankee Stadium, where the short fence in right field has helped him hit 11 of those 15 home runs at home.
Chisholm also has one of the hottest bats on the struggling Yankees. He has at least one hit in six of his last seven games, with two doubles and three home runs during that stretch. Chisholm also matches up well against Logan Gilbert, going 2 for 5 with a home run against him. Gilbert has allowed eight home runs in just 50.1 innings this season, so he could have a hard time against left-handed hitters at Yankee Stadium.
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Suarez is just 3 for 14 in his career against San Diego starter Nick Pivetta. Of course, two of those three hits are home runs, so hitting for power against Pivetta isn’t an issue, even if hits aren’t that frequent. Plus, Pivetta has allowed 11 homers over his last 12 starts, making him a good candidate to give up a homer.
Meanwhile, Suarez ranks fourth in the big leagues with 28 homers. He’s also in the midst of a power surge lately, hitting two home runs in his last five games and three in his last eight games. That makes Suarez as good a candidate as anyone to go deep on Tuesday.
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Soto and the Mets have a chance to do some damage against rookie Brandon Young on Tuesday. Through four starts, Young owns a 7.02 ERA. He’s also allowed a home run in each of his two home starts. Young has lasted just four innings in each of those starts, which will force a Baltimore bullpen with the sixth-highest ERA in the majors to do some heavy lifting.
Meanwhile, Soto is 7 for 21 over his last six games, helping the Mets break out of their slump. He’s exactly the type of hitter to take advantage of a rookie. Plus, 17 of Soto’s 21 homers have come against right-handed pitchers, making this a good matchup for him.
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Among the starting pitchers taking the mound on Tuesday, Washington’s Jake Irvin has given up the most home runs this season. Giving up the long ball has been particularly troublesome lately. He’s allowed 10 home runs across his last six starts, pitching just 31.2 innings during that stretch, which is a home run every three innings or so.
Needless to say, Burleson and the other St. Louis hitters will be looking forward to facing Irvin. Burleson already has a home run against Irvin in just five at-bats. His home runs have been slow but steady this season, including two in his last eight games, making him a top target against the homer-prone Irvin.
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