After hitting on four of our five bets on Friday, we’re feeling extra confident on Saturday. We even added a sixth pick, just for fun. Just keep in mind that we’re fading players in four of our six picks, including some surprising names, as well as an obvious target like Patrick Corbin.
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One of the benefits of targeting a player like Carroll is that you can get even odds when you fade him. That’s the case on Saturday with Carroll, who is just 3 for 15 (.200) with no extra-base hits in his career against Aaron Nola. He’s also just 2 for 17 with five strikeouts and no extra-base hits over his last four games. To go even further back, Carroll has collected multiple bases just twice in his last eight games. Since Nola provides a tough matchup for him, this is a good spot to fade a good hitter.
Nola was outstanding in his last start, but for the most part, he’s not been himself this year. Before last Sunday’s gem against the Cubs, he had walked multiple batters in three straight starts. In fact, he walked four batters in two of those starts. On Saturday, Nola faces a lineup that has earned the third-most free passes in baseball this year. The Diamondbacks are averaging a little over four walks per game. Since Nola typically pitches at least six innings, there is a strong chance he’ll walk multiple batters in a patient Arizona lineup.
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Even with a 3.79 ERA, we’re going to fade Corbin. He’s given the Rangers a few decent starts this season, but he’s also allowed seven hits in back-to-back outings. Both of those games came against the A’s, who aren’t as potent offensively as the Mariners. There are a few Seattle hitters with a good track record against Corbin. The Mariners are also red-hot, winning five in a row and seven of eight, averaging eight runs per game in those eight games. They should have a good night against Corbin.
Arozarena is one of Seattle’s hitters with past success against Corbin, going 4 for 10 against him. Granted, the former Rookie of the Year is only batting .211, but he’s kicked things up a notch lately. He has at least one hit in five of his last seven games, while scoring at least one run in six of those seven games. If the Mariners have a good night against Corbin, Arozarena is likely to be in the middle of things, having opportunities to collect RBIs or score runs, making this a safe bet.
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Taillon has some questionable numbers against several Milwaukee hitters, which is why he might have a tough matchup on Saturday. To be fair, his performances have been better lately, as he’s allowed just two runs on eight hits over his last 12 innings. But Taillon has also failed to complete six innings in three of his six starts this season. After tossing seven innings in his last start, it might be tough for Taillon to put together another strong outing in back-to-back performances, so we’ll lean toward Taillon having a short outing in Milwaukee.
If it means anything, we were prepared to bet on Quintana allowing fewer than 1.5 earned runs in this game. The lefty has allowed one run or less in all four of his starts this season. He’s also won all four of his starts (and is getting lucrative odds to do the same on Saturday). Based on how he’s pitched thus far, it’d be a surprise to suddenly see Quintana struggle and give up more than two runs. He’s been in such a groove lately that it’s hard to bet against him.
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