Best NRFI Bets Today: Positive Regression Looms Large Over Paul Skenes

After a rough start to his 2026 campaign, positive regression looms large over Paul Skenes as he faces off against the Washington Nationals who will struggle to punish his aggression.

At the same time as their opening pitch, we focus on the matchup between the Chicago Cubs and Philadelphia Phillies with two productive arms set to take the mound to battle it out against two struggling lineups.

Looking for more MLB betting insights? Check our selection of the Best MLB Home Run Props Today.

Best NRFI Bets for Monday, April 13

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Washington Nationals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates - Cade Cavalli vs. Paul Skenes (6:40 PM, EST)

Under 0.5 Run (-160) at Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook

After winning the NL Cy Young award last season, Paul Skenes fell hard back down to reality, kicking off the new year with an ERA of 5.25, a WHIP of 1.250, and a FIP of 4.20. Even though Skenes has been unable to keep a clean sheet in his first three starts, he has still been productive, averaging at least one Strikeout and less than one Hit Against per Inning Pitched.

See the latest Cy Young odds and predictions here.

Against the Washington Nationals, expect Skenes to round back into dominant form as he faces off against a lineup who ranks near the bottom of the board in Walk Rate, countering their conservative at-bats with his aggression. If the Nationals do continue to make contact, Skenes back end will help neutralize them, surrounding him with a group who ranks in the top-15 in Fielding Percentage.

On the other side of the field, Cade Cavalli has had a more productive start to his year, averaging an ERA of 2.51 while generating less than one Hit per inning. With the Pirates' top of their order struggling to score per their below league average marks in Runs Scored and RBIs, expect Cavalli to continue to hold them out of scoring position, increasing his chances of escaping the first inning without conceding a run.

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Chicago Cubs vs. Philadelphia Phillies - Javier Assad vs. Cristopher Sanchez (6:40 PM, EST)

Under 0.5 Run (-125) at Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook

Since the start of the regular season, Cristopher Sanchez has seen his odds to win the NL Cy Young award steadily grow, starting his year with an ERA of 1.65 and a league leading FIP of 1.04. His elite command of the ball and power has played a major role in his success on the mound, generating over one Strikeout per Inning Pitched in his first three appearances.

Heading into Monday night, expect Sanchez to build on his momentum as he faces off against the Chicago Cubs who currently rank in the bottom half of the board in Hit Rate, OPS, and in On Base Percentage. With the Cubs incapable of barreling up the ball, Sanchez will be able to continue to create Whiffs at a high rate and keep a clean sheet.

In an attempt to match Sanchez’s output, Javier Assad also draws a favorable matchup, battling it out against the Phillies who grade out equally as poor as the Cubs in the same previously mentioned offensive metrics. With Assad averaging a WHIP of 0.529 while supported by a back end who ranks third overall in Defensive Efficiency, expect the Phillies' struggles at the plate to continue to persist, resulting in no Runs to be scored in the first inning.

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Best YRFI Bets Today

• New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Dodgers - David Peterson vs. Justin Wrobleski - With David Peterson averaging nearly two runners on base and over one Hit Against per inning, his struggles on the mound will be on full display against the reigning World Series champions as he faces off against a star-studded lineup who ranks second in Contact Rate and in On Base Percentage.

• Texas Rangers vs. Athletics - Nathan Eovaldi vs. Luis Severino - Expect the red-hot Athletics to get into scoring position from the opening pitch on Monday night as they face off against the Texas Rangers Nathan Eovaldi who is currently averaging an ERA of 7.98, a WHIP of 1.841, and a FIP of 5.10.

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