MLS Outright Winner: Who's the Top Pick?

  • Los Angeles FC are favorites to lift the MLS Cup in December with New York City FC not that far behind
  • Philadelphia Union offer the best value odds in this market right now
  • Keep an eye on potential dark horses like Austin FC and FC Dallas

MLS Outright Winner Odds

Odds taken from DraftKings Sportsbook.

Player Odds
New York City FC +450
Los Angeles FC +450
Seattle Sounders +900
Philadelphia Union +1000
New England Revolution +1200
LA Galaxy +1400
FC Dallas +1600
Austin FC +1800
New York Red Bulls +1800
Orlando City SC +2000

MLS Outright Winner Overview

There’s still a long way to go but with around 14 game weeks out of the MLS out of the way, the MLS league table is starting to take shape. Los Angeles FC are currently leading the Western conference with 29 points. Just below them are FC Dallas with 25 points from the same number of games.

In the Eastern Conference, last season’s winners, New York City FC, remain supreme with 26 points from 26 points from 13 games. Philadelphia Union aren’t that far behind 25 points from 14 games.

The race for the golden boot should be a great addendum to the MLS championship this season with no runaway leader at the moment.

New York City FC And Los Angeles FC The Frontrunners

New York City FC are a step ahead of everyone else with odds on offer of +450, and are favorites to hold on to the title. Los Angeles FC are second favorites at +450. Philadelphia Union, currently provides great odds of +1000. The Union were the other conference finalists last season. Portland Timber (+3500), who made it to the final last season, aren’t currently in the playoff places, having taken only 15 points from their 14 games and sitting in 10th place in the Western Conference standings.

New England Revolution (+1200) somehow still have greater odds than many of the other clubs despite making a disastrous start to the season. Bruce Arena’s side recorded the highest number of points in the league phase in MLS history last season with 73 points from their 34 games. They’re currently in 11th place in the Eastern Conference League standings with 16 points after playing 13 games. It’s quite tight in that part of the table, which is perhaps why they’re still in with a shout according to the odds. There are many others on a similar footing.

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MLS Outright Winner

MLS 2022 Outright Winner Predictions

Others like Austin FC (+1800), FC Dallas (+1600) also deserve a mention after making a bright start to this season. Five-time champions LA Galaxy will always feel like they deserve to be mentioned in these conversations but it’s hard to see any of them actually winning it all.

It’s going to come down to three teams. This is Philadelphia Union’s best chance in many a season and Los Angeles FC have strength in numbers, which will go a long way. Los Angeles FC will have to take their league form to the playoffs and that’s never a guarantee but a fit Carlos Vela fit should give them a good chance.

There’s still a long way to go but it’s hard to see past New York City FC. They remain the most likely to win the MLS Cup even though the odds suggest otherwise. They provide better value than Los Angeles FC as well. They’re definitely worth the punt.

Favorites to Win the MLS 2022 Outright

New York City FC (+450)

They’ve been one of the best teams in the league for a few seasons now and they’re arguably the best run club of them all. They play an attractive brand of football, develop their youth and only go into the market when necessary. They were finally rewarded with silverware for this last season.

Now that they’ve got a taste for it, they’ll be calmer heading into this season. Valentin Castellanos, Santiago Rodriguez and Thiago Andrade have been in excellent form this season. They’re looking well-equipped to defend their crown as things stand and are one of two favorites with great MLS Cup title odds. They’re probably the team that no one will want to face in the playoffs.

Los Angeles FC (+450)

Los Angeles FC must have been extremely disappointed to have not made the playoffs last season. Their underlying numbers suggested that they were just a bit unlucky but there’s not much cause for concern this season. They look like the best team in the league now.

Carlos Vela has scored six of LAFC’s 29 goals and is top scorer but it is the bench that has been key to their place at the top of the table. The goals have been shared and it’s allowed them to not be as heliocentric in attack. Vela has had a few dry patches throughout this season and this just goes to show how big a difference the 5-sub rule makes. With the points flowing and four point lead in their division, Los Angeles FC are well worth the favorites tag.

Philadelphia Union (+1000)

The Philadelphia Union have assembled a side to win it all this time and they’ve done well so far by getting 25 points on board and sitting in second place in the Eastern Conference standings. Daniel Gazdag. Kai Wagner and Julian Carranza have been in great form this season and will be hoping to fix the issues from last time out.

After a bright start to the season, they’d played out too many draws and were struggling to manage the games for a little stretch before putting that to the side in recent weeks. They have the best defense in the league and that can always take you quite far. They’re an excellent value pick.

MLS 2022 Outright Winner Outside Picks

New England Revolution (+1200)

It’s a bit of a surprise that New England Revolution are so high on the odds list. They were expected to have a drop off from last season because of an over performance on their underlying metrics but it’s still quite startling to see them so low down on the table.

There have been mitigating circumstances in the form of injuries. Adam Buksa and Gustavo Bou weren’t available for the early parts of the season. Along with that, the starting center-back pairing of Henry Kessler and Andrew Farrell, were also out for periods in the season. Matt Turner had a foot injury. They’ve also lost one of their brightest stars from last season, Tajon Buchanan, to Club Brugge.

Earlier in the season, they were also on the receiving end of a lot of late winners. The injuries might have needed a change in set-up but Bruce Arena didn’t seem to adapt to that and it has cost him dearly. At full strength, they’re still a good side but they should be focusing on making the playoffs for now instead of looking too far ahead like the MLS Cup. Don’t lose your money and time on them.

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Varun Shetty WSN

Expert on Soccer

Varun is a web journalist who has been writing on sports for 13 years. He took a shine for the MLS during the 2021 season and has been following it and writing about it since, alongside his work involving the English Premier League, La Liga, and the Serie A. He is deeply interested in soccer analytics and strategy and has aspirations to move into coaching at some point. Email: [email protected]