MLS Top Goal Scorer Odds and Predictions: Sam Surridge Now Penciled In To Claim Most Goals

Checking into the Golden Boot race, the MLS is known for its parity and surprise results, dating back to 2012 we have witnessed 13 different players have recorded the personal accolade to be crowned the league's top scorer. 

• Lionel Messi now has some competition in the scoring chase, with the emergence of Sam Surridge who overtook the Argentinian legend as the current betting favorite to win the prestigious award 

•  MLS has no shortage of players who can find the back of the net, with 17 different players obtaining 4 or more goals in 2026

Finding the back of the net in 29 instances during his 28 regular season appearances in the previous term, Lionel Messi clinched the MLS 2025 Golden Boot, adding another award to his extensive resume. The winner of the individual award is decided before the playoff season begins.  

Below we share our pick to win the 2026 MLS Cup, the latest trends, and other information to help you pick a winner this season.

MLS Top Goal Scorer 2026 - Odds

The odds have been taken from BetRivers Sportsbook. Join BetRivers today and claim your welcome offer: $500 Bonus Bet.

MLS Top Goal Scorer Winner Predictions 

Following the same scenario as last year's competition, Lionel Messi is once again pegged by the oddsmakers to finish at the top of the scoring chart after match day 34 when the regular season concludes. The Argentinian legend remained healthy throughout the 2025 campaign which facilitated a successful year scoring on a pace that saw him average just over a goal per game. The likelihood of the iconic No. 10 repeating the previous term's output is fully contingent on his health and how many maintenance load management days Messi will receive. Since becoming a Vice City employee in 2023, to no surprise the 38-year -old has emerged possessing one of the hottest boots, amassing 77 goals across 88 appearances covering all competitions. It’s worth noting no player in MLS history has repeated as the scoring champion in consecutive seasons.

Following Messi there are some quality candidates to claim the 2026 golden boot. Both Dennis Bouanga and Sam Surridge trailed Messi in 2025, recording 24 goals each. For Bouanga, he is more likely to reach the summit over Surridge just on the basis the LAFC star has a solid supporting cast around him to help breach the keeper frequently.

Surprising omissions from the oddsmakers in the top 10 are a pair of players heading into match day seven with five goals apiece. João Klauss (LA Galaxy) and Julian Hall (New York Red Bulls) who have exceeded expectations this campaign. If their consistent form continues, they will become threats in the Golden Boot chase. 

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2025 MLS Golden Boot - My Pick 

Heung-Min Son (+2500) at BetRivers

In August of 2025, the 10-time Asian Footballer of year recipient, Heung-Min Son made the headline move to join The Black and Gold, after spending 10 years with Tottenham Hotspur. The 33-year-old forward is a serious threat to take the scoring crown from the short sample size we witnessed in MLS. Just shy of over 800 minutes on the pitch, Son featured on the scorers’ sheet on nine occasions.

The South Korean international already has experience in his back pocket, finishing as a top scorer overseas, as he won the Golden Boot in the Premier League with his memorable 2021-22 output.

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How to Bet on the 2025 MLS Top Goal Scorer

Simple and easy, head over to your preferred online sportsbooks and navigate the MLS page. From there you will see a "Futures" tab, this is where you can wager on who you think will claim the 2026 MLS Golden Boot.

Before placing your wager, we recommend betting within your limit and do some homework on what's trending with team news and injuries to star players across the league.

How to Read the 2026 MLS Top Goal Scorer

Especially if you're new to sports betting, reading the indicated odds can be overwhelming and confusing or if you are used to using a decimal or fraction system.

It’s quite easy to get the hang of it after a few minutes on studying how the read odds. The American system is basic, it uses a model where the plus sign (+) indicates the team is the underdog while the minus sign (-) means they are the favorite. If you see a team with no minus sign then the team with the lowest plus sign is considered the favourites. Numbers are based on $100 bets for example -120 means you need to bet $120 to win $100. +120 means if you bet $100, you'll win $120

Where to Bet on the 2026 MLS Top Goal Scorer

In a growing industry, there is no shortage of companies to choose from when placing your MLS Golden Boot winner.

We are using BetRivers Sportsbook as our preferred betting site for the MLS Top Goalscorer. Sign up for a BetRivers account and claim your welcome offer: $500 Bonus Bet. Find more info in our BetRivers Sportsbook review.

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MLS Golden Boot History

Since 1996, there have been 26 different Golden Boot winners in MLS. Prior to 2005, MLS used a point system that awarded two points for a goal and one point for an assist to establish the MLS Golden Boot winner.

Only five players who have only won twice in league history: Preki with the Kansas City Wizards (1997, 2003) now Sporting Kansas City, Taylor Twellman (2002, 2005) of the New England Revolution, Jeff Cunningham (2006, 2009) with Real Salt Lake and FC Dallas, Chris Wondolowski (2010, 2012) with the San Jose Earthquakes and Bradley Wright-Phillips (2014, 2016) with the New York Red Bulls are the multi Golden Boot winners. 

Below is a list of the previous winners of the MLS Golden Boot in the last ten years