Brock Purdy has thrown 11 touchdown passes over his last three games, helping the 49ers win six in a row
The Seahawks have faced the fifth-most pass attempts in the NFL but allowed just 20 passing touchdowns.
Purdy has attempted at least 30 passes in four of his last five games
One of the biggest games on the Week 18 schedule is Saturday’s primetime matchup between the Seattle Seahawks and the San Francisco 49ers. In a game that could decide the top seed in the NFC, the most intriguing player has to be San Francisco quarterback Brock Purdy. Despite missing half the season with an injury, Purdy has looked like an MVP in recent weeks, throwing 11 touchdown passes to just two interceptions over his last three games.
The 49ers have won all six games Purdy has played since his return from injury, putting San Francisco in a position to win the NFC West. Perhaps more importantly, San Francisco’s odds to win Super Bowl LX have improved significantly since Purdy’s return. Of course, the Seahawks have an identical six-game winning streak and an elite defense, which is why they are also among the top NFC favorites heading into Week 18.
Needless to say, Purdy facing the Seattle defense will be a fascinating matchup. We’ve dissected the matchup from every angle and come up with three Purdy prop bets we like for Week 18.
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| Best Brock Purdy Player Props | Odds | Claim $150 in Bonus Bets at bet365 |
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| Brock Purdy Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns | +110 | CLAIM HERE |
| Brock Purdy Over 33.5 Pass Attempts | -120 | CLAIM HERE |
| Brock Purdy Over 14.5 Rushing Yards | -110 | CLAIM HERE |
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It’s tough to bet against Purdy because he has 11 touchdown passes in his last three games. In the eight games he’s played this season, Purdy has thrown multiple touchdown passes six times. In theory, he should be able to keep that streak going, but we’re going against the grain to get the value.
The Seahawks have one of the top pass defenses in the league, conceding just 20 passing touchdowns in 16 games. MVP contender Matthew Stafford is the only quarterback in Seattle’s last two games to throw multiple touchdown passes against the Seahawks. While Purdy has played at a high level, this is a good time to fade him to get plus odds.
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Unless the San Francisco defense can suddenly have a good game, Purdy will have to put the 49ers on his back in this game. That will lead to a high number of pass attempts. While he’s only gone over 33.5 pass attempts once in the six games since returning from injury, Purdy has thrown at least 30 passes in four of his last five games, so he’s been close to crossing this threshold.
It’s also worth noting that the Seahawks have faced the fifth-most pass attempts in the league this season. They often play with a lead and force teams to throw the ball to catch up. With the 49ers having a rather average defense, this game is likely to follow a similar formula, forcing Purdy to throw well beyond 30 pass attempts.
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Purdy made some huge plays with his legs in last week’s win over the Bears, including two rushing touchdowns. With the way he’s improvising with his legs, he won’t hesitate to do the same this week, especially in a big game. While his rushing stats have been a little erratic, he’s gone over 14.5 rushing yards three times in his last five games.
Despite Purdy’s recent success running the ball, the Seattle defense has to be far more focused on stopping Christian McCaffrey. The Seahawks haven’t faced a lot of athletic quarterbacks in recent weeks, but the likes of Bryce Young and Cam Ward have both rushed for over 20 yards against them this year. Quarterbacks who are willing to run can typically gain yards with their legs against Seattle, which is why we’re backing Purdy to do just that.
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Games: 8
Completions: 178
Attempts: 257
Completion Percentage: 69.3%
Yards: 2,040
Yards Per Pass: 7.9
Touchdowns: 20
Interceptions: 9
Carries: 31
Yards: 126
Yards Per Rush: 4.1
Touchdowns: 3
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