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Falcons vs. Vikings Prediction: Vikings Defense to Pick up From Where They Left Off

Published: September 12, 2025, 10:00 AM ET
5 min read
  • The Atlanta Falcons were held to just 20 points in a loss to Tampa Bay in week one

  • Atlanta’s running back Bijan Robinson averaged two yards per carry on 12 attempts

  • Minnesota’s defense ranked top-3 in Def DVOA, EPA, and in Success Rate last season

After struggling to get into a groove in their week one matchup against Chicago, the Minnesota Vikings' defense managed to round back into form in the fourth quarter and helped spark their comeback. With the Atlanta Falcons' offensive line struggling to hold their ground, expect the Vikings to continue to create pressure and stall out their drives at a consistent rate.

For more NFL Week 2 insights, take a look at our NFL offense rankings, as well as NFL defense rankings.

Atlanta Falcons vs. Minnesota Vikings Odds

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Teams Moneyline Spread Total
Atlanta Falcons +185 +4.5 (-110) 44.5 (-110)
Minnesota Vikings -225 -4.5 (-110) 44.5 (-110)

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Falcons vs Vikings 2025 09 14 JJ McCarthy

Falcons vs. Vikings My Pick

Just when it looked like negative regression was rearing its ugly head over Minnesota’s defense, the Vikings managed to find their footing late in their contest against Chicago and suffocated the Bears offense for the final 15 minutes. Their performance mirrored last year’s results as the Vikings ranked top-3 in Def DVOA, EPA, and in Success Rate in 2024.

In Monday night’s matchup against Atlanta, the Vikings' front seven will have the opportunity to build on their momentum as they should face minimal resistance in their efforts of collapsing their pocket. In week one against Tampa Bay, the Falcons struggled to hold their ground as they finished the contest ranked below league average in Pass Protection Win Rate.

The Vikings' pressure through the interior will also continue to give Bijan Robinson fits as the NFL Offensive Player of the Year contender was held to just two yards per carry on 12 attempts. This will force the Falcons into a pass heavy game script, allowing the Vikings to anchor their linebackers which will help reduce the quality of Michael Penix Jr’s passing lanes.

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Falcons vs. Vikings Prediction

Atlanta Falcons Preview

Heading into the year, Atlanta’s offense was projected to be one of the more dynamic units in the league due to their deep group of skill players. Unfortunately for the Falcons, their success falls on the shoulders of Michael Penix Jr who has struggled with his consistency as he finished week one’s contest ranked below league average in Completion Percentage Above Expected.

The Falcons' offensive line plays a major role in his struggles as their lack of protection lessens the time Penix has in the pocket to let his plays develop. When under pressure, Penix is forced to throw into low-quality windows which increases the defense's chances of generating Havoc. Expect the Vikings' pressure to slow down the Falcons and hold them under their team total.

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Minnesota Vikings Preview

Like their defense, JJ McCarthy also got off to a slow start in Monday night’s NFC North divisional matchup against Chicago as he finished the first half completing just 5-8 of his passes for a total of 48 yards. The former Michigan Wolverine hit his stride in the second half as he capped off the comeback throwing for 143 yards and two touchdowns while punching in another one with his legs.

Expect McCarthy to continue to thrive against Atlanta in week two as he faces off against a defense who ranked below league average in Def DVOA. Especially with his offensive line giving him the protection he needs to help increase the quality of his throws as the Vikings' front ranked above league average in PFF Grade and in Pass Protection Win Rate.

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Falcons vs. Vikings Injuries

Atlanta Falcons

  • Drake London - Questionable

  • Darnell Mooney - Questionable

Minnesota Vikings

  • Christian Darrisaw - Questionable

  • Blake Cashman - Questionable

  • Harrison Smith - Questionable

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How to Watch Falcons vs. Vikings

  • When: September 14, 8:20 pm EST

  • Where: U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, Minnesota

  • How to Watch: NBC

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Kody Malstrom WSN Contributor

Kody Malstrom

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Kody Malstrom is a sports betting journalist with six years of writing experience in the industry. He covers an abundance of sports, including College Football, NFL, College Basketball, NBA, and more. Born and raised in Michigan, Kody is a devoted Detroit Sports fan and spends his Sundays rooting for the Detroit Lions while telling himself this year is the year they win it all. When not staring at betting markets, Kody spends his free time at the beach in the summer or snowboarding in the winter.
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