The Atlanta Falcons were held to just 20 points in a loss to Tampa Bay in week one
Atlanta’s running back Bijan Robinson averaged two yards per carry on 12 attempts
Minnesota’s defense ranked top-3 in Def DVOA, EPA, and in Success Rate last season
After struggling to get into a groove in their week one matchup against Chicago, the Minnesota Vikings' defense managed to round back into form in the fourth quarter and helped spark their comeback. With the Atlanta Falcons' offensive line struggling to hold their ground, expect the Vikings to continue to create pressure and stall out their drives at a consistent rate.
For more NFL Week 2 insights, take a look at our NFL offense rankings, as well as NFL defense rankings.
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Teams | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
---|---|---|---|
Atlanta Falcons | +185 | +4.5 (-110) | 44.5 (-110) |
Minnesota Vikings | -225 | -4.5 (-110) | 44.5 (-110) |
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Just when it looked like negative regression was rearing its ugly head over Minnesota’s defense, the Vikings managed to find their footing late in their contest against Chicago and suffocated the Bears offense for the final 15 minutes. Their performance mirrored last year’s results as the Vikings ranked top-3 in Def DVOA, EPA, and in Success Rate in 2024.
In Monday night’s matchup against Atlanta, the Vikings' front seven will have the opportunity to build on their momentum as they should face minimal resistance in their efforts of collapsing their pocket. In week one against Tampa Bay, the Falcons struggled to hold their ground as they finished the contest ranked below league average in Pass Protection Win Rate.
The Vikings' pressure through the interior will also continue to give Bijan Robinson fits as the NFL Offensive Player of the Year contender was held to just two yards per carry on 12 attempts. This will force the Falcons into a pass heavy game script, allowing the Vikings to anchor their linebackers which will help reduce the quality of Michael Penix Jr’s passing lanes.
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Heading into the year, Atlanta’s offense was projected to be one of the more dynamic units in the league due to their deep group of skill players. Unfortunately for the Falcons, their success falls on the shoulders of Michael Penix Jr who has struggled with his consistency as he finished week one’s contest ranked below league average in Completion Percentage Above Expected.
The Falcons' offensive line plays a major role in his struggles as their lack of protection lessens the time Penix has in the pocket to let his plays develop. When under pressure, Penix is forced to throw into low-quality windows which increases the defense's chances of generating Havoc. Expect the Vikings' pressure to slow down the Falcons and hold them under their team total.
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Like their defense, JJ McCarthy also got off to a slow start in Monday night’s NFC North divisional matchup against Chicago as he finished the first half completing just 5-8 of his passes for a total of 48 yards. The former Michigan Wolverine hit his stride in the second half as he capped off the comeback throwing for 143 yards and two touchdowns while punching in another one with his legs.
Expect McCarthy to continue to thrive against Atlanta in week two as he faces off against a defense who ranked below league average in Def DVOA. Especially with his offensive line giving him the protection he needs to help increase the quality of his throws as the Vikings' front ranked above league average in PFF Grade and in Pass Protection Win Rate.
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Atlanta Falcons
Drake London - Questionable
Darnell Mooney - Questionable
Minnesota Vikings
Christian Darrisaw - Questionable
Blake Cashman - Questionable
Harrison Smith - Questionable
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When: September 14, 8:20 pm EST
Where: U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, Minnesota
How to Watch: NBC
Falcons vs Vikings Prop Bets SNF Week 2
Falcons vs Vikings Same Game Parlay SNF Week 2
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