Musk vs. OpenAI Prediction Markets: Traders See Open and Shut Case for OpenAI

Elon Musk looks likely to suffer another legal loss, according to prediction market customers at Kalshi. Looking at the latest prediction market for Musk vs. OpenAI, the majority of traders are putting their money on the latter and its CEO, Sam Altman.

With the case set to rumble on for months and the markets already buzzing with activity, there’s a lot to unpack. Here’s how the latest Musk vs. OpenAI prediction markets shape up and what we can expect from this high-profile legal battle.

Key Takeaways for Musk vs. OpenAI

• Musk is the underdog in prediction markets – the current weight of opinion is against Elon Musk

• Profit vs. non-profit – the jury’s interpretation of OpenAI’s profit vs. non-profit status will determine the outcome of this case

• A settlement matters – both parties agreeing to a settlement would be a win for the “sell” side, according to the market rules on Kalshi

Current Musk vs. OpenAI Prediction Market Odds

Here are the latest prediction market positions for the legal case between Elon Musk and OpenAI:

Elon Musk vs. OpenAI Contest Prediction Market Analysis

Elon Musk and OpenAI CEO Sam Altman have been battling for the best part of a decade. The genesis of the feud dates back to 2018 and Musk’s departure from OpenAI due to, among other things, concerns about its non-profit vs. profit status.

After waging war on social media, tensions peaked in 2023 when Musk launched xAI and its fledgling chatbot, Grok. With Grok and OpenAI’s ChatGPT vying for market dominance, the rivalry between Musk and Altman has resulted in a public court case.

Musk vs. OpenAI in Court

The case itself hinges on Musk’s claim that OpenAI should remain a non-profit organization. As an investor and former board member, he believes OpenAI no longer upholds its founding value due, in part, to its relationship with Microsoft.

As a result, Musk is seeking damages reportedly up to $180 billion and changes to the way OpenAI is run. His other main request is the removal of Altman as CEO of OpenAI.

In response to the claims, OpenAI’s lawyers argue that there was never a commitment to remaining a non-profit organization.

They acknowledge that a non-profit pledge was there at the start, but contend that it was never a binding contract. Also, for context, OpenAI has two arms, one of which is a non-profit and one that is run more like a for-profit business.

OpenAI’s lawyers also argue that Musk’s legal challenge is financially motivated, citing the fact that he now owns a rival AI company. It’s a complex case that, according to tech journalists such as Chris Stokel-Walker, may be motivated by personal issues as much as ethical issues.

Elon Musk to Win | Yes: 41.4% at $0.43

Those picking Musk to win are likely basing their decision on the fact that OpenAI was set up as a non-profit organization, but doesn’t appear to be anymore. We know it has a for-profit arm, but Musk’s lawyers may argue that it’s more than a secondary part of the organization.

Links to Microsoft could be used as a way to show that OpenAI is now a for-profit company with a non-profit subsidiary, rather than a non-profit with a for-profit subsidiary.

Recent bad press could also play in Elon Musk’s case. Between possible data privacy violations in Canada, poorly performing updates to ChatGPT, and an impending IPO, all have generated less-than-positive headlines.

In fact, with regard to the IPO specifically, the Wall Street Journal reported on April 28 that CFO Sarah Friar is worried. Friar told other company leaders during a talk that OpenAI might not be ready for the reporting standards required by publicly listed companies.

For these reasons, 41.4% of traders at Kalshi are backing Elon Musk to win his high-profile case against OpenAI.

Place Your Prediction on Elon Musk to Win at Kalshi

Elon Musk to Lose | Yes: 58.6% at $0.58

The case for OpenAI winning is that the money Musk put into OpenAI at the start was a donation rather than an investment. The distinction is important because donations don’t give someone the same rights as an investment when it comes to voting on company matters.

The counterargument here is that, as a non-profit, the rules aren’t the same. However, Musk’s argument may be tainted further by the fact that he owns xAI. The jury may see that as a conflict of interest, which could be a significant reason why traders are backing OpenAI and picking against Musk.

Place Your Prediction on Elon Musk to Lose at Kalshi

Why the Musk vs. OpenAI Prediction Market is Moving

Media hype is currently driving the prediction market for Musk vs. OpenAI. The case itself started on April 28, and the legal wheels of America’s court system turn slowly.

Because of this, we don’t have much evidence to go off other than what’s been reported in the media over the last few years. However, based on the history of Musk vs. Altman and the legal basis for both arguments, tech journalist Chris Stokel-Walker believes the current sentiment is fair.

How Legal Battles and Prediction Markets Work

Legal battles are an interesting case when it comes to prediction markets because there are three possible outcomes. For Musk vs. OpenAI, you can either buy (back Musk to win) or sell (back Musk not to win).

As per the market rules on Kalshi, the outcome is determined by the following:

“If the U.S. District Court in the Northern District of California sides with Elon Musk in Musk v. Altman et al before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.”

This gives us three possible outcomes:

• The court rules in favor of Musk before January 1, 2027: all “yes” trades pay a return

• The court rules against Musk before January 1, 2027: all “no” trades pay a return

• The case is settled out of court before January 1, 2027: all “no” trades pay a return

A settlement means the court hasn’t ruled in favor of Musk. Therefore, as per the market rules on Kalshi, “no” trades would pay a return. Therefore, you have two ways to receive a payout if you take the “no” position.

Prediction Markets vs. Traditional Sportsbooks

Prediction markets are not traditional betting platforms. Instead, they function as trading platforms where users take one side of a market or the other. This is why you see buy and sell options rather than standard betting odds. In this environment, a buy option means you are backing the proposition. Conversely, a sell option means you are picking against that specific outcome.

For platforms like Kalshi or OG to function, there must be two people on opposite sides of every proposition. The software works by matching you directly with another individual when you place your trade. If you believe a specific event will occur, you place a buy trade. The platform then finds a counterpart willing to take the sell side. A small fee is charged for this matching service, which is why market percentages often exceed 100 percent.

This structure highlights the core distinction of prediction markets vs. sportsbooks. In a traditional sportsbook, your counterparty is the bookmaker rather than another trader. The bookmaker sets the odds and you place a bet, which means you are strictly backing a proposition. In that scenario, a bookie might offer odds on an event to happen or provide a separate market on it not to happen. Regardless of your choice, you are always backing a specific outcome while the bookmaker takes the other side.

Where to Trade Musk vs. OpenAI Markets Legally

Kalshi is currently the primary platform offering active trades on Musk vs. OpenAI. However, as the industry grows, several of the best prediction markets have emerged to offer unique contracts on tech, politics, and law. If court battles between tech billionaires aren’t your thing, there are plenty of alternative markets on Kalshi, including the NBA Championship prediction and cultural events such as the Oscars.

Joining Kalshi on the list of top-tier platforms are several sites currently offering competitive prediction market bonuses to attract new traders:

• OG – Available in all states except in Arizona and New York. Launched as a dedicated prediction platform powered by Crypto.com, OG is known for offering regulated event contracts, plenty of liquidity, and detailed statistics alongside crypto payments.

• Crypto.com – Operating under federal oversight by the CFTC, Crypto.com's in-app prediction market has plenty of liquidity and neat features like early cashouts (ending trades early for a cash return). However, while it shares underlying tech with OG, the core Crypto.com app's prediction markets are subject to stricter state-level restrictions and are unavailable in states including New York, Nevada, Ohio, Michigan, Arizona, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, and Illinois.

• Underdog Predict – Available in roughly 40 states, including Florida and California. Underdog offers true prediction markets alongside its fantasy sports. Operating as a registered FCM offering CFTC-regulated event contracts, this dual approach means it offers almost unparalleled sports coverage and contest variety.

Those prediction markets are great for sports and other events. However, if you’re gripped by the Musk vs. OpenAI saga, check out Kalshi for the latest prediction market percentages and use our Kalshi promo code WSN to sing up today.