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UFC 286 Edwards vs Usman 3: Leon Edwards Defends His Title for the First Time in His Home Country

Written by: Ryan Bristlon
Published March 17, 2023
12 min read
  • Leon Edwards defends his title for the first time in his home country

  • Top lightweights Gaethje vs Fiziev battle in the co-main event

  • Casey O’Neill looks to improve her undefeated record to 10-0

UFC 286: Edwards vs Usman 3

The odds for this match are provided by the DraftKings sportsbook. Click the link to place your bets.

Fighter

Odds

(C) Leon Edwards

+205

BET HERE

Kamaru Usman

-245

BET HERE

Fighter

Odds

Justin Gaethje

+195

BET HERE

Rafael Fiziev

-230

BET HERE

Fighter

Odds

Gunnar Nelson

-425

BET HERE

Bryan Barberena

+340

BET HERE

Fighter

Odds

Jennifer Maia

+155

BET HERE

Casey O’Neill

-180

BET HERE

Fighter

Odds

Marvin Vettori

-295

BET HERE

Roman Dolidze

+245

BET HERE

UFC 286: Edwards vs Usman 3 - Picks & Predictions

(C) Leon Edwards vs Kamaru Usman - Welterweight championship

Kamaru Usman (-245)

Justin Gaethje vs Rafael Fiziev - Lightweight division

Rafael Fiziev (-230)

Gunnar Nelson vs Bryan Barberena - Welterweight division

Gunnar Nelson (-425)

Jennifer Maia vs Casey O’Neill - Women’s flyweight division

Casey O’Neill (-180)

Marvin Vettori vs Roman Dolidze - Middleweight division

Roman Dolidze (+245)

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UFC 286 Edwards vs Usman Prediction

Leon Edwards vs Kamaru Usman - Welterweight Championship

Leon Edwards

TALE OF THE TAPE

Kamaru Usman

31

Age

35

6 ft.

Height

6 ft.

74 in.

Reach

76 in.

20-3, 1 no-contest

Record

20-2

The rubber match is here. This Saturday will decide who is the greatest UFC welterweight once and for all: current champion Leon Edwards or former champion Kamaru Usman.

In the main event of UFC 278 last August, Leon Edwards won his tenth fight in a row when he shockingly defeated champion Kamaru Usman with a last-minute head kick in round five.

Prior to this defeat, Usman had won 19 fights in a row (including a 2015 win over Leon Edwards) and defended the welterweight strap five times.

His black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu and NCAA division 2 wrestling credentials (not to mention his significant time as champion) have led oddsmakers to list Usman as a generous -245 favorite to regain his title.

But, given what happened in their last fight, Edwards, at +205, sure does look tempting as he too boasts a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu and almost submitted Usman in the first round of their UFC 278 main event before ultimately securing the late-fight knockout.

To find out how to place your bets for this welterweight championship main event, check out our ultimate UFC betting guide to get started.

Justin Gaethje vs Rafael Fiziev - Lightweight Division

Justin Gaethje

TALE OF THE TAPE

Rafael Fiziev

34

Age

30

5 ft. 11 in.

Height

5 ft. 8 in.

69.5 in.

Reach

71 in.

23-4

Record

12-1

The co-main event will see two of the most entertaining lightweights (ranked number three and number six respectively) go toe-to-toe in what many would consider the safe bet for the fight of the night honors.

Former interim lightweight champion and fight of the year winner Justin Gaethje is coming off of a lightweight title loss to Charles Oliveira - who submitted Gaethje in the first round of their UFC 274 main event last May.

Rafel Fiziev has been a fighter on the rise, quickly surpassing the rank of prospect and becoming a full-fledged contender. 

Fiziev has now won six fights in a row. He won his last two in a row via knockout over the likes of Brad Riddell and Rafael dos Anjos. Fiziev has also earned a post-fight bonus in his last five fights.

The rising star is favored over Gaethje at -230.

Gunnar Nelson vs Bryan Barberena - Welterweight Division

Gunnar Nelson

TALE OF THE TAPE

Bryan Barberena

34

Age

33

5 ft. 11 in.

Height

6 ft.

72 in.

Reach

72 in.

18-5-1

Record

18-9

Having lost back-to-back fights in 2019, Gunnar Nelson took an extended hiatus and didn’t return to action until March 2022 - where he defeated Takashi Sato via unanimous decision.

Nelson holds a black belt in karate and a third-degree black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu and is known as one of the most accomplished grapplers on the UFC roster.

He takes on slugger Bryan Barberena this Saturday. Barberena was recently on a three-fight winning streak that included a TKO win over former welterweight champion Robbie Lawler. However, he was submitted by Rafael dos Anjos in his most recent fight last December.

Despite these two men having almost identical physical attributes, Nelson is listed as the largest betting favorite on the main card (oddsmakers have the grappling machine listed as -425).

Jennifer Maia vs Casey O’Neill - Women’s Flyweight Division

Jennifer Maia

TALE OF THE TAPE

Casey O’Neill

34

Age

25

5 ft. 4 in.

Height

5 ft. 6 in.

64 in.

Reach

69 in.

20-9-1

Record

9-0

Undefeated at 9-0, with four of those wins taking place under the UFC banner, Casey O’Neill hopes to improve to a perfect 10-0 record with a win over former title challenger Jennifer Maia.

O’Neill is coming off of a split-decision win over Roxanne Modafferi which took place at UFC 271 last February.

Maia, who holds black belts in muay thai and Brazilian jiu-jitsu, recently snapped a two-fight losing skid with her recent win over Maryna Moroz last November.

With her undefeated record on the line, O’Neill will look to utilize her two-inch height and five-inch reach advantages. She sits as the -180 favorite.

Marvin Vettori vs Roman Dolidze - Middleweight Division

Marvin Vettori

TALE OF THE TAPE

Roman Dolidze

29

Age

34

6 ft.

Height

6 ft. 3 in.

74 in.

Reach

76 in.

18-6-1

Record

12-1

Currently ranked as the fourth-best middleweight in the division, Italy’s Marvin Vettori has gone just 2-2 over his last four fights. 

After losing to Israel Adesanya in a middleweight title fight in 2021, Vettori bounced back with a win over another top middleweight in Paulo Costa. However, due to weight issues with Costa, that fight was decided at light heavyweight.

Vettori lost his most recent bout last September to former champion Robert Whittaker via unanimous decision.

Roman Dolidze, the ninth-ranked UFC middleweight, has won his last four in a row - a winning streak that includes a TKO over Jack Hermansson and knockouts of both Phil Hawes and Kyle Daukaus.

Despite the impressive resume, and with only one loss on his record, oddsmakers have Dolidze listed as +245 underdog.

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How to Watch UFC 286: Edwards vs Uman 3

  • LOCATION: The O2 Arena, London, England

  • WHEN: Saturday, March 18

  • TIME: 5PM EST

  • HOW: PPV, UFC Fight Pass, ESPN+

Image for Ryan Bristlon

AUTHOR

Ryan Bristlon

433 Articles

Ryan Bristlon is a Canadian writer currently residing in Hamilton, Ontario. He studied print and broadcast journalism at Humber College and has been a lifelong fan of the sport of hockey and the NHL.



Email: [email protected]

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